This idea helped me pick the winners of the two championship games and I think it’s a decent enough idea to share here.
The spread opened at Pats -6 or -7 on a neutral field. Since home field accounts for -2.5 to -3 points in the nfl, oddsmakers are saying the Pats would be -9 or -10 at home. That’s the spread worthy of an opponent like the Jags and Bills. Not the Eagles even with Foles at qb. So I ask myself, would I lay 9 with the Pats at home vs this Eagles team? Conversely, Pats -3 vs Eagles in Philadelphia? I would take the Eagles for a large amount.
It’s not all that scientific with stats like yards per play and third down conversions of less than 5.5 yards with 15 mph winds in a snowstorm, specific. But it’s simple, and helped me choose a side when I was going back and forth. So Eagles +6 is the right side.
I see its -4 now. A little more reasonable for Pats backers though.
Thoughts?
The spread opened at Pats -6 or -7 on a neutral field. Since home field accounts for -2.5 to -3 points in the nfl, oddsmakers are saying the Pats would be -9 or -10 at home. That’s the spread worthy of an opponent like the Jags and Bills. Not the Eagles even with Foles at qb. So I ask myself, would I lay 9 with the Pats at home vs this Eagles team? Conversely, Pats -3 vs Eagles in Philadelphia? I would take the Eagles for a large amount.
It’s not all that scientific with stats like yards per play and third down conversions of less than 5.5 yards with 15 mph winds in a snowstorm, specific. But it’s simple, and helped me choose a side when I was going back and forth. So Eagles +6 is the right side.
I see its -4 now. A little more reasonable for Pats backers though.
Thoughts?
