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Thread: Advanced NBA Analytics - Better Picks Through Analytics...

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  1. #1 Advanced NBA Analytics - Better Picks Through Analytics... 
    RX Junior
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    ********
    My Story:
    ********
    I’m a coder, I write software for a living. But my passion over the last 8 years has been using my programming abilities and testing out my own NBA data analytics. I try and come up with logical “theories” on what should affect winning and covering spreads and then I back test the theories on my NBA database.

    If the analytic shows promise in the back testing, I then test it “live” on a current season. If it proves successful in a live season, then I keep it and continue keeping track of it’s record ATS for at least three years.

    I have had numerous successes and failures, but what I have compiled I feel are quality tools to help make good decisions on what team to wager on.

    ***************
    Get To The Point!
    ***************
    I have come across one particular analytic that has been so good to me, I want to share it and hopefully help us all become more profitable.

    When I back tested this analytic it did extremely well, so I then tested it live last year and it went (59-18 ATS). I sadly only started betting theses for the last 20 or so games so I missed out, but I was excited about this year to see if it was all luck or I was maybe on to something.

    I figured this year, I would have a huge regression back to the mean, but this year the system is is still producing great results at (31-13 ATS)… I know you guys are all probably very skeptical, I would be too (and still am) but I thought I would put the curse on it by posting here for the rest of the year.

    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (31-13)
    Posted Record: (0-0)
    *********************
    MIAMI +4.5 over Houston
    *********************


    Best of luck to all!
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  2. #2  
    RX Senior
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    Thanks for sharing looks very promising...Hope it cont.....
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  3. #3  
    RX Senior
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    by the way this is great post in sharing info....
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  4. #4  
    We are EVERYWHERE !! Zapster's Avatar
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    I'm also a great believer in algorithms for predicting results in sports......unfortunately our formulas disagree on that particular game, but we both know a large sample is needed to validate, so I wish you luck in the long run and hope we agree on future predictions !!
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  5. #5  
    RX Local indiana's Avatar
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    NBA/A........welcome to the NBA forum, sure you will enjoy the site.....many good cappers here.........appreciate the info and write up...........BOL.............indy
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  6. #6  
    RX Senior Vituperate's Avatar
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    Thanks for posting NBAA. BOL and GLTA.

    Will this be a daily thread or one thread for the entire season that I can bookmark?
    "Is it wrong to gamble, or only to lose?"
    ---Sky Masterson
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  7. #7  
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    Thanks Indy, I am just hoping I can back up my "claims" with winners going forward... Never fails once you start posting the bad streaks happen!... I can say that in tracking this for the last 1.5 seasons it hasn't had a prolonged losing streak... Fingers crossed.
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  8. #8  
    RX Junior
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    This will be one thread for the rest of the year... This system goes through spurts some weeks nothing, some weeks 4-5, it all depends on the match up fitting the analytic. It is a DOG system, and I can also tell you that the DOG winning outright has happened a good percent of the time. I myself will go back and see what the exact percentage is, but I know it is good enough to sprinkle a little moneyline!

    Thanks for the interest!
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  9. #9  
    RX Senior Vituperate's Avatar
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    "Is it wrong to gamble, or only to lose?"
    ---Sky Masterson
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  10. #10  
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    Not another one...Why can't people just give us the games without all the drama
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  11. #11  
    RX Junior
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    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (31-14)
    Posted Record: (0-1)
    *********************
    MIAMI +4.5 over Houston - Lost
    *********************

    Nothing today from yesterdays analytic but an analytic that is 11-5 this year and 89-62 lifetime for me has Boston +1.5

    Best of luck everyone!
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  12. #12  
    RX Junior
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    Hope you guys cashed on the Celtics yesterday.... For the posted record below I am just keeping track of this one analytic, but I will share other analytic plays I have found to be worth wagering on t make the thread a bit more interesting.

    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (31-14)
    Posted Record: (0-1)
    *******************
    Pacers +4 over BOSTON
    *******************


    Best of luck everyone!
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  13. #13  
    RX Junior
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    Hope you guys cashed on the Celtics yesterday.... For the posted record below I am just keeping track of this one analytic, but I will share other analytic plays I have found to be worth wagering on t make the thread a bit more interesting.

    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (31-14)
    Posted Record: (0-1)
    *******************
    Pacers +4.5 over BOSTON
    *******************


    Best of luck everyone!
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  14. #14  
    RX Junior
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    Hope you guys cashed on the Celtics yesterday.... For the posted record below I am just keeping track of this one analytic, but I will share other analytic plays I have found to be worth wagering on t make the thread a bit more interesting.

    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (31-14)
    Posted Record: (0-1)
    *********************
    Pacers +4.5 over BOSTON
    KINGS +5.5 over Portland
    *********************


    Best of luck everyone!
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  15. #15  
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    Why did you post Indiana +4 and then Indiana +4.5? It's one or the other.
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  16. #16  
    RX Junior
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    My apologies for the multiple posts, I thought I was updating and not ADDING... Won't happen again. Best of luck to all!
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  17. #17  
    RX Junior
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    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (32-15)
    Posted Record: (1-2)
    ****************************************
    Pacers +4.5 over BOSTON - WINNER (Straight up)
    KINGS +5.5 over Portland - LOSER
    ****************************************
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  18. #18  
    Your Bookies Worest Enemy XSPower's Avatar
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    Good luck tonight...
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  19. #19  
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    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (32-15)
    Posted Record: (1-2)
    ****************************************
    ORLANDO +5.5 over Milwaukee
    ****************************************

    From my other analytics Phoenix +6.5 looks promising.

    Best of luck!
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  20. #20  
    RX Senior
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    So, this seems to be play against teams on back 2 back as favorites of some sort
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  21. #21  
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    Not really, it just so happens the last few were that way. I definitely wouldn't think that would hurt things!... Although it obviously didn't help us in this case. I should research the results and see if the b2b winning percentage is better/worse. I did play the Magic on the money line as well, just like the Pacers yesterday, I have observed these plays are decent on the money line. I will look up the prior results and post the exact winning percentage.
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  22. #22  
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    Recap:
    ****************************************
    ORLANDO +5.5 over Milwaukee - Lost
    ****************************************

    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (32-16)
    Posted Record: (1-3)
    ****************************************
    Utah +3.5 over PORTLAND
    ****************************************

    Best of luck!



    From my other analytics Phoenix +6.5 looks promising.

    Best of luck!
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  23. #23  
    RX Junior
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    Sorry, cut/paste issue Phoenix mention is not for today...
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  24. #24  
    RX Junior
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    Recap:

    2016-2017 (59-18)
    2017-2018 (33-16)
    Posted Record: (2-3)
    ****************************************
    Utah +3.5 over PORTLAND - WINNER (Straight up)
    ****************************************
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  25. #25  
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    gl
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