How to bet UFC 221
Reed Kuhn
ESPN INSIDER
It's not the middleweight title fight we were hoping for. Nor does it involve Robert Whittaker or Georges St-Pierre, the last two men to win a middleweight title fight. But as far as a replacement matchup for an interim title goes, Luke Rockhold vs. Yoel Romero makes for a compelling and competitive main event. Appropriately, it's right in line with the last two middleweight title fights as far as the betting market is concerned.
The trouble for the pay-per-view market is the rest of the card. A major UFC event held internationally always gets loaded with regional talent at the cost of star power for the U.S. market. However, while going head-to-head with opening weekend of the Olympics may mean conceding some market share in the northern hemisphere, choosing Perth, Australia, for the event may have been wise given the lower local interest in the Winter Games. There's no doubt the UFC's first visit to Perth will have the stadium popping.
With an undercard offering a mix of veterans and newcomers, only the top two fights will have serious implications on the rankings. We'll look at those two fights in detail to see if there's betting value in these relatively tight lines.
Heavyweight: #5 Mark Hunt (-140) vs. #9 Curtis Blaydes (-160)
Mark Hunt has been a heavyweight anchorman since the PRIDE days of 2004, and yet here he is occupying the marquee of a UFC event in 2018. That's for two reasons: his striking and his durability. Trained as a kickboxer, the New Zealand-born Hunt is dangerous in a firefight with anyone, despite always being the outsized and outranged striker. He has one-punch knockout power on par with the best heavyweights, and when outhustled, he has enough durability to make opponents work for it.
The lack of a ground attack makes him one-dimensional, but notably he's improved his takedown defense in recent years, at least making grappling less of a liability.
Blaydes appears to be a polar opposite, and not just on account of being born in the northern hemisphere. He's tall, rangy and still in his twenties. And though a relative rookie in the UFC, he's shown the strong wrestling base that has carried him despite his less-than-technical striking. He has spent 27 percent of all Octagon minutes on the mat and in control. There are stark contrasts in nearly every aspect of this fight.
Insider recommends: The youth advantage for Blaydes of nearly 17 years is one of the steepest in UFC history, and immediately worth of an edge. Despite Hunt's experience and technical striking advantages, three rounds of pressure and wrestling from Blaydes is the likeliest path to victory. Assuming, of course, he doesn't eat a huge uppercut on the way in. A straight play on Blaydes at mild favorite odds is reasonable, as is the over 1.5 rounds at -180, or a small prop on Blaydes by decision at close to even money.
Interim middleweight championship: #1 Yoel Romero (+130) vs. #2 Luke Rockhold (-140)
The main event will offer another stylistic contrast, but one that is likely to be fought on the feet rather than in a transitional struggle. Luke Rockhold is a technical double threat, combining an arsenal of long-range striking with a submission-centric grappling game. Offensively, he scores well and has finishing potential, as long as he's in control of the striking range or gets ground control.
But Romero fights more by power and aggression than by skill. He rarely utilizes his Olympic-level wrestling base, instead opting to slug it out with opponents on the feet, which usually has ended well for him. His offensive striking has been precise and overwhelmingly powerful. Just shy of 80 percent of all of his standing head strikers are with power, as opposed to just 20 percent jabs. That steep mix means opponents have to be very careful trading leather. And they are often forced to, as Romero clearly has the hips to keep a fight standing.
Rockhold has a path to victory on the feet by using his range and kicking game, but speed and elusiveness will be critical. He doesn't simply want to stand in the pocket while Romero swings for the fences. Either man is capable of knocking out the other, but Rockhold gets the edge if he fights up to his ability, and is smarter than he has been in the past.
Insider recommends: When Rockhold opened at +150, there was plenty of value on him. With his price now having risen to -140 through steady one-sided action, little or no value remains. The question now is which way the line will move as fight time approaches, as significant movement in either direction would offer some small value. It could go either way, and we agree in a close to coin-flip matchup with Rockhold having a slight edge. The safer play is the over 1.5 rounds at -175, as both men should be cautious early about entering the danger zones of the other, especially given that each lost their first chance at a UFC title.
Reed Kuhn
ESPN INSIDER
It's not the middleweight title fight we were hoping for. Nor does it involve Robert Whittaker or Georges St-Pierre, the last two men to win a middleweight title fight. But as far as a replacement matchup for an interim title goes, Luke Rockhold vs. Yoel Romero makes for a compelling and competitive main event. Appropriately, it's right in line with the last two middleweight title fights as far as the betting market is concerned.
The trouble for the pay-per-view market is the rest of the card. A major UFC event held internationally always gets loaded with regional talent at the cost of star power for the U.S. market. However, while going head-to-head with opening weekend of the Olympics may mean conceding some market share in the northern hemisphere, choosing Perth, Australia, for the event may have been wise given the lower local interest in the Winter Games. There's no doubt the UFC's first visit to Perth will have the stadium popping.
With an undercard offering a mix of veterans and newcomers, only the top two fights will have serious implications on the rankings. We'll look at those two fights in detail to see if there's betting value in these relatively tight lines.
Heavyweight: #5 Mark Hunt (-140) vs. #9 Curtis Blaydes (-160)
Mark Hunt has been a heavyweight anchorman since the PRIDE days of 2004, and yet here he is occupying the marquee of a UFC event in 2018. That's for two reasons: his striking and his durability. Trained as a kickboxer, the New Zealand-born Hunt is dangerous in a firefight with anyone, despite always being the outsized and outranged striker. He has one-punch knockout power on par with the best heavyweights, and when outhustled, he has enough durability to make opponents work for it.
The lack of a ground attack makes him one-dimensional, but notably he's improved his takedown defense in recent years, at least making grappling less of a liability.
Blaydes appears to be a polar opposite, and not just on account of being born in the northern hemisphere. He's tall, rangy and still in his twenties. And though a relative rookie in the UFC, he's shown the strong wrestling base that has carried him despite his less-than-technical striking. He has spent 27 percent of all Octagon minutes on the mat and in control. There are stark contrasts in nearly every aspect of this fight.
Insider recommends: The youth advantage for Blaydes of nearly 17 years is one of the steepest in UFC history, and immediately worth of an edge. Despite Hunt's experience and technical striking advantages, three rounds of pressure and wrestling from Blaydes is the likeliest path to victory. Assuming, of course, he doesn't eat a huge uppercut on the way in. A straight play on Blaydes at mild favorite odds is reasonable, as is the over 1.5 rounds at -180, or a small prop on Blaydes by decision at close to even money.
Interim middleweight championship: #1 Yoel Romero (+130) vs. #2 Luke Rockhold (-140)
The main event will offer another stylistic contrast, but one that is likely to be fought on the feet rather than in a transitional struggle. Luke Rockhold is a technical double threat, combining an arsenal of long-range striking with a submission-centric grappling game. Offensively, he scores well and has finishing potential, as long as he's in control of the striking range or gets ground control.
But Romero fights more by power and aggression than by skill. He rarely utilizes his Olympic-level wrestling base, instead opting to slug it out with opponents on the feet, which usually has ended well for him. His offensive striking has been precise and overwhelmingly powerful. Just shy of 80 percent of all of his standing head strikers are with power, as opposed to just 20 percent jabs. That steep mix means opponents have to be very careful trading leather. And they are often forced to, as Romero clearly has the hips to keep a fight standing.
Rockhold has a path to victory on the feet by using his range and kicking game, but speed and elusiveness will be critical. He doesn't simply want to stand in the pocket while Romero swings for the fences. Either man is capable of knocking out the other, but Rockhold gets the edge if he fights up to his ability, and is smarter than he has been in the past.
Insider recommends: When Rockhold opened at +150, there was plenty of value on him. With his price now having risen to -140 through steady one-sided action, little or no value remains. The question now is which way the line will move as fight time approaches, as significant movement in either direction would offer some small value. It could go either way, and we agree in a close to coin-flip matchup with Rockhold having a slight edge. The safer play is the over 1.5 rounds at -175, as both men should be cautious early about entering the danger zones of the other, especially given that each lost their first chance at a UFC title.
