SEC Returning Starters

cloverleaf · Feb 9, 2018

I believe the SEC has a good chance of repeating as national champions. Who?
That is what will be interesting. Here's a look at the SEC teams and starters
returning. (Based on ESPN offense and defense)

Alabama 5-5 (10)
Auburn 6-7 (13)
Arkansas 9-7 (16)
Georgia 8-5 (13)
Vanderbilt 7-5 (12)
Missouri 9-7 (16)
Tennessee 6-6 (12)
Florida 10-9 (19)
Texas AM 8-8 (16)
Kentucky 7-5 (12)
Ole Miss 8-7 (15)
LSU 5-5 (10)
South Carolina 8-6 (14)
Miss State 9-8 (17)

My view on returning starters is the quality of those players and the quality of players
who will be stepping into starting roles. IT AIN'T the SAME with all of these teams. If
anyone thinks Alabama will suffer for the lack of returning starters...well, I disagree.

Auburn and Miss State have a lot of talent returning in the West. Georgia and Florida
(sleeper) should rule the East with South Carolina a team who can upset a favorite.

If I had to guess, I'd say Bama and Dawgs in the SEC title game. Then................

My take....welcome yours........................................................

rolltide · Feb 10, 2018

S&P has a great overview of returning starters in their brand new first-to-last ratings. I'll have to find it....i remember FSU in the ACC was in for some trouble on that front

rolltide · Feb 10, 2018

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...86/2018-college-football-rankings-projections

here it is. tap the "returning production" column to rank by that section and you see Bama, UGA, and the barn head and shoulders above the rest of SEC in returning production

Projected 2018 S&P+ rankings (as of Feb. 9)

Search:

Rk	Team	Conf.	Recruiting impact	Returning production	Weighted 5-year	Proj. S&P+

1	Ohio State	Big Ten	1	1	2	27.0
4	Washington	Pac-12	17	2	13	23.9
3	Clemson	ACC	12	3	3	25.4
2	Alabama	SEC	4	4	1	27.0
6	Georgia	SEC	2	5	28	22.1
5	Auburn	SEC	11	6	6	22.4
7	Notre Dame	Ind	10	7	16	21.4
17	Central Florida	AAC	66	8	85	13.9
11	Michigan State	Big Ten	33	9	22	18.0
8	Penn State	Big Ten	8	10	20	20.2
12	Wisconsin	Big Ten	36	11	11	17.8
31	Florida Atlantic	C-USA	77	12	107	8.7
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	6	13	7	19.5
10	Michigan	Big Ten	15	14	8	18.3
14	Mississippi State	SEC	26	15	21	15.7
13	Miami-FL	ACC	9	16	18	17.4
44	Fresno State	MWC	95	17	100	4.9
26	Boise State	MWC	65	18	26	10.0
19	Oklahoma State	Big 12	35	19	29	11.9
34	Wake Forest	ACC	67	20	83	7.4
22	TCU	Big 12	31	21	24	11.4
21	Virginia Tech	ACC	24	22	27	11.5
20	Stanford	Pac-12	27	23	10	11.9
30	Missouri	SEC	44	24	47	8.9
33	Arizona	Pac-12	45	25	63	7.7
25	Ole Miss	SEC	30	26	14	10.9
15	USC	Pac-12	3	27	9	14.0
16	LSU	SEC	7	28	5	14.0
23	Oregon	Pac-12	18	29	30	11.3
28	Utah	Pac-12	32	30	34	9.4
38	Northwestern	Big Ten	54	31	57	6.5
42	Memphis	AAC	71	32	48	5.1
68	Ohio	MAC	113	33	91	0.1
63	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	109	34	51	1.8
40	Duke	ACC	51	35	62	5.8
24	Texas A&M	SEC	14	36	19	11.0
48	Boston College	ACC	68	37	65	4.0
27	Texas	Big 12	16	38	43	9.6
37	NC State	ACC	40	39	40	7.2
49	Toledo	MAC	73	40	41	4.0
66	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	89	41	81	1.4
36	Iowa	Big Ten	39	42	38	7.2
72	Wyoming	MWC	111	43	96	-0.7
29	Louisville	ACC	28	44	12	9.3
54	Purdue	Big Ten	62	45	89	3.2
62	Marshall	C-USA	80	46	79	1.9
46	Iowa State	Big 12	49	47	78	4.6
18	Florida State	ACC	5	48	4	12.3
41	Washington State	Pac-12	46	49	55	5.4
55	San Diego State	MWC	75	50	53	2.6
82	Miami-OH	MAC	103	51	120	-2.0
47	Texas Tech	Big 12	59	52	59	4.1
56	South Florida	AAC	69	53	73	2.5
69	Northern Illinois	MAC	91	54	77	0.0
78	Troy	Sun Belt	97	55	93	-1.1
35	South Carolina	SEC	20	56	56	7.2
74	SMU	AAC	84	57	112	-0.9
43	West Virginia	Big 12	42	58	44	5.0
77	Utah State	MWC	115	59	54	-1.1
59	Houston	AAC	70	60	49	2.1
70	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	86	61	74	-0.4
32	Florida	SEC	13	62	17	8.2
53	Georgia Tech	ACC	48	63	36	3.5
45	Pittsburgh	ACC	37	64	31	4.7
86	North Texas	C-USA	99	65	113	-3.6
93	Buffalo	MAC	125	66	119	-5.4
58	Indiana	Big Ten	56	67	50	2.2
92	Army	Ind	110	68	123	-5.3
61	Kansas State	Big 12	64	69	39	1.9
83	Middle Tennessee	C-USA	93	70	88	-2.9
65	California	Pac-12	57	71	58	1.4
52	Arkansas	SEC	41	72	32	3.7
96	Eastern Michigan	MAC	121	73	124	-6.1
81	Temple	AAC	90	74	61	-1.9
39	UCLA	Pac-12	19	75	23	6.0
91	UAB	C-USA	117	76	97	-5.0
100	New Mexico State	Ind	124	77	129	-7.7
50	Baylor	Big 12	34	78	15	3.9
57	Arizona State	Pac-12	38	79	46	2.3
64	Kentucky	SEC	29	80	75	1.8
51	North Carolina	ACC	25	81	33	3.8
73	Virginia	ACC	61	82	72	-0.8
71	Syracuse	ACC	58	83	70	-0.6
85	Navy	AAC	92	84	52	-3.3
67	Minnesota	Big Ten	47	85	45	0.8
102	Massachusetts	Ind	116	86	125	-7.7
75	Vanderbilt	SEC	52	87	86	-1.0
76	BYU	Ind	72	88	35	-1.1
87	Western Michigan	MAC	78	89	66	-3.7
84	Rutgers	Big Ten	53	90	106	-3.1
60	Nebraska	Big Ten	22	91	42	2.0
101	Nevada	MWC	98	92	109	-7.7
98	Tulane	AAC	79	93	108	-6.6
105	UNLV	MWC	104	94	114	-8.4
107	UL-Monroe	Sun Belt	102	95	122	-9.1
97	Bowling Green	MAC	88	96	84	-6.3
94	Southern Miss	C-USA	74	97	92	-6.0
90	Western Kentucky	C-USA	85	98	37	-4.6
95	Colorado State	MWC	82	99	60	-6.0
88	Cincinnati	AAC	55	100	69	-4.0
109	South Alabama	Sun Belt	118	101	90	-9.5
80	Maryland	Big Ten	23	102	76	-1.7
111	New Mexico	MWC	114	103	102	-10.2
106	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	106	104	67	-8.5
115	Liberty	Ind	130	105	116	-11.8
104	UTSA	C-USA	76	106	101	-8.4
112	Air Force	MWC	129	107	71	-10.2
114	Old Dominion	C-USA	122	108	104	-11.5
113	Georgia State	Sun Belt	94	109	121	-11.1
103	Kansas	Big 12	63	110	115	-8.1
108	Tulsa	AAC	87	111	87	-9.2
89	Colorado	Pac-12	43	112	64	-4.6
118	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	128	113	99	-12.1
119	Akron	MAC	126	114	103	-12.6
79	Tennessee	SEC	21	115	25	-1.6
116	Central Michigan	MAC	107	116	98	-11.8
117	Ball State	MAC	101	117	94	-11.9
99	Illinois	Big Ten	50	118	82	-7.6
121	UL-Lafayette	Sun Belt	120	119	95	-13.3
126	Charlotte	C-USA	112	120	130	-15.2
120	Florida International	C-USA	83	121	126	-12.8
123	Texas State	Sun Belt	100	122	128	-14.6
122	Hawaii	MWC	105	123	110	-14.2
127	Kent State	MAC	119	124	117	-15.3
124	Connecticut	AAC	96	125	118	-14.7
110	Oregon State	Pac-12	60	126	68	-9.7
128	Rice	C-USA	123	127	111	-16.2
125	East Carolina	AAC	81	128	80	-15.1
130	UTEP	C-USA	127	129	127	-20.3
129	San Jose State	MWC	108	130	105	-19.1

cloverleaf · Feb 10, 2018

Good info RT........

Fla-Atlantic and Fresno State are two teams I like and the chart shows I might
be right. Two teams to keep and eye on during the 2018 season.

Knightrofins · Feb 10, 2018

FAU didnt have "the best" of recruiting classes as they are G5 but they had some really good transfers coming to Boca for next Season (which doesnt get factored in when comes to recruiting classes). They start the season at Oklahoma and play at UCF next season.

Was hoping for a huge point spread week 1 vs Oklahoma as i want to take FAU in that one

cloverleaf · Feb 10, 2018

FAU has a ton of talent coming back including that stud at running back.

RT's chart show's they are ranked 12th. The same with Fresno ranked 17th.

You are right Knight about Kiffin signing some good defensive juco kids.

cloverleaf · Feb 16, 2018

Bama is DEAD! Saban has lost his advantage because of losing top assistants! Bama's
recruiting class a disaster falling from #1 the past years to now not even a top-5. He's
too damn old to keep up with his former assistants.

Ok, what has Saban recruited the past three years? Thinking a few of these dogs will
come through this season.

Write Alabama off at your own stupidity.

CoachCB · Feb 22, 2018

Florida returns 19 shit starters...and no QB. I see a more competitive team that is lucky to win 7 games. If Dan Mullen goes 8-4 or better he should be SEC COTY!

cloverleaf · Feb 23, 2018

CoachCB said:
Florida returns 19 shit starters...and no QB. I see a more competitive team that is lucky to win 7 games. If Dan Mullen goes 8-4 or better he should be SEC COTY!

Coach my friend...bet one of the Washington statues on eight wins.

Nine if the freshman quarterback develops into the real deal.

Sleepers.....Sleepers them Gators!

MackDonald · Feb 24, 2018

CoachCB said:
Florida returns 19 shit starters...and no QB. I see a more competitive team that is lucky to win 7 games. If Dan Mullen goes 8-4 or better he should be SEC COTY!

Coach, I am not sure the "Gator Faithful" would be satisfied with an 8-4 win/loss record especially if the 4 loses were inflicted by conference foes... The Southeastern conference is brutal....and unforgiving. Look at Saban, he's winning all the time he is still in the "hot box" every year. When he retires he wants to live on a lake with good reason.

CoachCB · Feb 24, 2018

Mack Donald said:
Coach, I am not sure the "Gator Faithful" would be satisfied with an 8-4 win/loss record especially if the 4 loses were inflicted by conference foes... The Southeastern conference is brutal....and unforgiving. Look at Saban, he's winning all the time he is still in the "hot box" every year. When he retires he wants to live on a lake with good reason.

I think most people realize Butters left a f'ing mess in Gainesville; from a depleted roster full of 3-star talent to a weak, undisciplined S&C program.....to leaving no QB worth a shit for the next guy to work with. So, w/ that if this team competes and doesn't get blown out, I think Gator fans will be happy.

UF lost two close games to LSU and Texas A&M and should have EASILY won both if the offense had any sort of a pulse. They also won a couple of games they should have lost to UK and UT. UF has been a complete sh*t show since Urban Meyer's last season in 2010. It's going to take more than 1 season for Mullen to turn it around.

CL thinks 8 wins is a given....I sure hope so, but I see 4-8 losses easily: FSU, UGA, LSU, Miss State, Missouri, South Carolina, and possibly Kentucky & Tennessee. All of these games are toss ups....or sure losses

FSU has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 9. Inexcusable....and the game is in Tallahassee this year. FSU has owned UF since 2010.

UGA.....well, everyone is playing catch up to them .

Missouri blew out UF last year and returns their QB.

Tennessee....has more talent and the game is in Knoxville.

Kentucky wants to end the streak and will - as usual - bring their A-game to gainesville.

Miss State - game is at Miss State....they return 18 starters, plus their QB, game is on the road, and this team will want to stick it to their old coach.

South Carolina - beat UF last year, returns their QB, and Muschamp will always want this one.

LSU - lots of talent and has continuity w/ the head coach.

Like I said, if Mullen can go 7 or 8 wins he should win SEC COTY....if he wins 9? National coach of the year!

MackDonald · Feb 24, 2018

CoachCB said:
I think most people realize Butters left a f'ing mess in Gainesville; from a depleted roster full of 3-star talent to a weak, undisciplined S&C program.....to leaving no QB worth a shit for the next guy to work with. So, w/ that if this team competes and doesn't get blown out, I think Gator fans will be happy.

UF lost two close games to LSU and Texas A&M and should have EASILY won both if the offense had any sort of a pulse. They also won a couple of games they should have lost to UK and UT. UF has been a complete sh*t show since Urban Meyer's last season in 2010. It's going to take more than 1 season for Mullen to turn it around.

CL thinks 8 wins is a given....I sure hope so, but I see 4-8 losses easily: FSU, UGA, LSU, Miss State, Missouri, South Carolina, and possibly Kentucky & Tennessee. All of these games are toss ups....or sure losses

FSU has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 9. Inexcusable....and the game is in Tallahassee this year. FSU has owned UF since 2010.

UGA.....well, everyone is playing catch up to them .

Missouri blew out UF last year and returns their QB.

Tennessee....has more talent and the game is in Knoxville.

Kentucky wants to end the streak and will - as usual - bring their A-game to gainesville.

Miss State - game is at Miss State....they return 18 starters, plus their QB, game is on the road, and this team will want to stick it to their old coach.

South Carolina - beat UF last year, returns their QB, and Muschamp will always want this one.

LSU - lots of talent and has continuity w/ the head coach.

Like I said, if Mullen can go 7 or 8 wins he should win SEC COTY....if he wins 9? National coach of the year!

Well stated Coach....as always; You've been on the "inside", that is why I always look for your comments regarding college foosball (especially when they pertain to the Gators)..,......

rolltide · Feb 25, 2018

Mack Donald said:
Well stated Coach....as always; You've been on the "inside", that is why I always look for your comments regarding college foosball (especially when they pertain to the Gators)..,......

Florida have a lot more talent than suggested above. They were #9 in recruiting 2017 preceded by #14-23-8. 2017 recruited 15 4-stars which was 5th most in the nation. '18 class wasn't great but still top 20 and got a QB that several programs had top 3 on their board plus another 14 4-stars. Probably only Georgia has more 4-5 stars on their roster in the East (perhaps Tenn...probably very close with Florida) so talent is there. Mullen will have >30 4-5 stars to work with and won plenty in Starkville with 2-3 stars. Problem with Mullen is he might rely on QB productivity more than any coach in the nation so someone has to step up because he needs a true dual-threat to win. Any team that loses Nussmeier as OC is addition by subtraction

cloverleaf · Feb 25, 2018

Charleston Southern, Kentucky, Colorado State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Idaho, FSU all wins. That's
seven. Then they get LSU, Missouri and South Carolina at home so there's a built in advantage.
The only two losses I would mark right now are at Mississippi State and Georgia in Jacksonville.

Obviously, getting either Feleipe Franks or incoming freshman Emory Jones (#5 dual QB) to play at
a consistent level is the key. Jones is on campus and will go through spring practice and many
believe he will be the man when the season starts. Mullin has a history of developing quarterbacks
and he has a good one in Jones to work with.

I believe Mullin has a good chance of having a very productive season...again with solid QB play.

CoachCB · Feb 25, 2018

rolltide said:
Florida have a lot more talent than suggested above. They were #9 in recruiting 2017 preceded by #14-23-8. 2017 recruited 15 4-stars which was 5th most in the nation. '18 class wasn't great but still top 20 and got a QB that several programs had top 3 on their board plus another 14 4-stars. Probably only Georgia has more 4-5 stars on their roster in the East (perhaps Tenn...probably very close with Florida) so talent is there. Mullen will have >30 4-5 stars to work with and won plenty in Starkville with 2-3 stars. Problem with Mullen is he might rely on QB productivity more than any coach in the nation so someone has to step up because he needs a true dual-threat to win. Any team that loses Nussmeier as OC is addition by subtraction

I'm not sure what site you're getting your numbers from, but UF hasn't had a class inside the top 10 since Muschamp - at least 5 classes ago.

Here's a CBS sports article on roster talent:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...football-teams-with-the-best-players-in-2018/

Florida is 14th....behind UGA, Tennessee, FSU, Texas A&M.....and the usual suspects.

The fact is, UF has a roster full of 3-star talent. The fewest 4-star talent since the "star" rating system was invented.

CoachCB · Feb 25, 2018

DeadLast · Feb 25, 2018

CoachCB said:
Florida returns 19 shit starters...and no QB. I see a more competitive team that is lucky to win 7 games. If Dan Mullen goes 8-4 or better he should be SEC COTY!

Coach, you know way more about the Florida program than I do, but I'm not buying what you are selling. Seldom do I agree with RT and Clover but their above posts are pretty damn accurate.

The biggest problem Mullen faces this year is buy in from the kids recruited by McElwain. It took Smart a year to weed out the kids who didn't adopt to his philosophy and Mullen could face the same backlash. Mullen believes in physical practices and kids spending extra time in the weight room - how these kids adjust and accept that will determine how well they do.

If they buy in and get just average QB play I expect them to win 8, possibly 9 or more games. They will not be out talented by many teams they play. This is not the SEC of old - take bama and Ga out and there is not a huge talent gap in the other teams. LSU and FSU matches up well with Fla's talent, but it is hard to take LSU serious with Coach O at the helm. And who knows what to expect from FSU - it could take them a year or two to adjust from a pro style to a spread.

Your non-conference schedule is manageable. Other than having to play LSU from the west, your conference schedule is easy by SEC standards. You have back to back to back games with Tenn, Miss State and LSU. If you manage to win 2 of those you could easily go into the Ga game with one loss and the SEC east championship on the line. Maybe that is a pipe dream but I don't see it being out of the realm of possibility.

DeadLast · Feb 25, 2018

CoachCB said:
The fact is, UF has a roster full of 3-star talent. The fewest 4-star talent since the "star" rating system was invented.

Per Rivals, over the last 5 years Fla has signed 122 players. 58 of those were 4 or 5 star kids (48%).

You may not have the most talented team in the conference but you aren't void of talent either.

CoachCB · Feb 25, 2018

DeadLast said:
Coach, you know way more about the Florida program than I do, but I'm not buying what you are selling. Seldom do I agree with RT and Clover but their above posts are pretty damn accurate.

The biggest problem Mullen faces this year is buy in from the kids recruited by McElwain. It took Smart a year to weed out the kids who didn't adopt to his philosophy and Mullen could face the same backlash. Mullen believes in physical practices and kids spending extra time in the weight room - how these kids adjust and accept that will determine how well they do.

If they buy in and get just average QB play I expect them to win 8, possibly 9 or more games. They will not be out talented by many teams they play. This is not the SEC of old - take bama and Ga out and there is not a huge talent gap in the other teams. LSU and FSU matches up well with Fla's talent, but it is hard to take LSU serious with Coach O at the helm. And who knows what to expect from FSU - it could take them a year or two to adjust from a pro style to a spread.

Your non-conference schedule is manageable. Other than having to play LSU from the west, your conference schedule is easy by SEC standards. You have back to back to back games with Tenn, Miss State and LSU. If you manage to win 2 of those you could easily go into the Ga game with one loss and the SEC east championship on the line. Maybe that is a pipe dream but I don't see it being out of the realm of possibility.

Nice response DL. Did you see the chart and article I posted. Florida has the 14th best roster in the country.....and 7th best in the SEC. So UF is a mid-pack SEC team talent wise.

I agree w/ you on the buy in. From the players comments/tweets/etc they seem to be buying in. There's quite a few players on this team that have never contributed and need to be weeded out. McElwain brought in some very questionable non-SEC talent (i.e. he "stole" some players from FAU and FIU, literally).

As far as next year's results. You do realize this team went 4-7 last year? And they have no QB?

Do you honestly think UF is going into Starkville and winning? MSU returns 18 starters and they are home vs. their old coach. I wouldn't be surprised if this game wasn't a blowout. They're ranked and won the bowl game. Do you think UF goes into Tallahassee and wins? After losing 8 of 9 to FSU? What about South Carolina? You think Muschamp is just going to roll over for the "Mighty Gators"? No way.

Again, this team went 4-7....and has no QB.

This team is a QB and a year or two away from being a 9 win team. 7 or 8 wins is the ceiling....and if Mullen tops that, like I said, he's SEC COTY material.

DeadLast · Feb 25, 2018

CoachCB said:
Nice response DL. Did you see the chart and article I posted. Florida has the 14th best roster in the country.....and 7th best in the SEC. So UF is a mid-pack SEC team talent wise.

I agree w/ you on the buy in. From the players comments/tweets/etc they seem to be buying in. There's quite a few players on this team that have never contributed and need to be weeded out. McElwain brought in some very questionable non-SEC talent (i.e. he "stole" some players from FAU and FIU, literally).

As far as next year's results. You do realize this team went 4-7 last year? And they have no QB?

Do you honestly think UF is going into Starkville and winning? MSU returns 18 starters and they are home vs. their old coach. I wouldn't be surprised if this game wasn't a blowout. They're ranked and won the bowl game. Do you think UF goes into Tallahassee and wins? After losing 8 of 9 to FSU? What about South Carolina? You think Muschamp is just going to roll over for the "Mighty Gators"? No way.

Again, this team went 4-7....and has no QB.

This team is a QB and a year or two away from being a 9 win team. 7 or 8 wins is the ceiling....and if Mullen tops that, like I said, he's SEC COTY material.

Coach, not trying to be argumentative. You very well may be right about your gators. But I'm going to play devil's advocate.

You seem to be basing your opinion on three things - last years record, previous recruiting classes and your QB situation.

Don't get hung up on your 4 and 7 record last year. A coaching change can have a huge impact on a team. Auburn finished last in the west in '09 under Tuberville, then won the Natty under Chiz the next season. In '12 under Chiz Auburn didn't win a conference game, the following year under Malzahn played for the Natty. It can happen.

You think Florida will struggle with Miss St and So Carolina. Lets use your recruiting angle as a comparison. Miss State has signed 121 kids the last 5 years. Only 26 (21%) were 4 stars. Advantage Gators. South Carolina has recruited better but not by too much. They have signed 125 with 44 (35%) 4 stars. Again, advantage Gators. If your recruiting angle holds water the gators will be the better team.

The QB question mark for Florida next year is a concern. But it is not one that can't be over come. Having a dynamic QB can carry a team, but serviceable QB's that don't get their team beat can go along way too. Franks is a talented guy. Now that he has a little experience he could turn into the guy everyone expected. If he doesn't, don't count out Jones. Freshman QB's have had a lot of success in recent years. Fromm and Hurts both lead their teams to the Natty the last two years.

Again, not saying your assessment of the gators is wrong. Just saying you may want to hold judgement before throwing in the towel. I don't see anyone in the east challenging Ga but if anyone does my money would be on Florida.

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