This was posted in 2015 .... how things have changed .....
Since 2004, per Kenpom.com, 84 teams have had a top-10 offense or defense paired with an offense or defense that ranked worse than 70th. Guess how many made the Final Four? One: the 2012 Louisville Cardinals, who were an insanely good defensive team. Only three of these one-track bullies — 2014 Michigan, 2012 Florida, and 2011 Arizona — have made the Elite Eight. And 15 have made the Sweet 16. The takeaway: 82.1 percent of these teams did not make the Sweet 16 and 96.4 percent did not make the Elite Eight.
The teams to seriously avoid in 2015: Notre Dame (again), Davidson, BYU, Indiana (again), Iowa State (again), San Diego State (miserableoffense), Louisville, and a special clause for Butler, which verges very close to the limit on the offensive side.
Breakdown
2015
ND # 3 Seed .....Finished in Elite 8
Off 2 Rank / Def 99 Rank
Louisville # 4 Seed ....Finished in Elite 8
Off 66 Rank / Def 4 Rank
2016
Duke # 4 Seed ... Finished Sweet 16
Off 4 Rank / Def 86 Rank
Iowa St # 4 Seed .... Finished Sweet 16
Off 7 Rank / Def 91 Rank
ND # 6 Seed .....Finished Elite 8
Off 9 Rank / Def 158 Rank
2017
Michigan # 7 Seed .... Finished in Sweet 16
Off 4 Rank / Def 69 Rank
UCLA # 3 Seed .... Finished in Sweet 16
Off 2 Rank / Def 85 Rank
South Carolina # 7 Seed .... Finished Final 4
Off 91 Rank / Def 3 Rank
So that's
4 Teams who reached Sweet 16 Seeded from # 3 Seed to # 7 Seed
3 Teams who reached Elite 8 Seeded from # 3 Seed to # 6 Seed
1 Team who reached Final 4 Seeded at # 7
I expect this trend to continue this year so look for teams that are Seeded between 3 and 7 Seeds who have a discrepancy in their Offense and defensive rankings of at least 62 in rankings ..
Example Louisville
Off Rank 4 .... Def Rank 66 ....
2018 Teams which show the huge discrepancies between Off and Def Ranks that may have a shot of the Sweet 16 .....or Elite 8 .... only 1 team / last year's #7 South Carolina has made the final 4 ....
I will come back to this thread in hopes of removing a team or 2 from the following list with my stats I have on excel from previous Sweet 16 or Elite 8 qualifiers ....
2018 list of teams with shot at Sweet 16 ... I would pick only 1 of these teams ...possibly 2 ( your call )
Kenpom Rank before the team
#5 Duke Off 2 Rank / 79 Def Rank
#17 St Mary's Off 4 Rank / 111 Def Rank
#21 Texas A/M Off 71 Rank / 5 Def Rank
#22 Tcu Off 5 Rank / 128 Def Rank
#24 Arizona Off 8 Rank / 105 Def Rank
#41 NM ST Off 108 Rank / 7 Def Rank
#42 Alabama Off 100 Rank / 10 Def Rank
#43 Texas Off 110 Rank / 8 Def Rank
If I was picking 2 teams to watch they have a big shot of sweet 16 or elite 8
Duke
Tcu .... Exp Rank # 78 .... shot ...if they ever gel ?
St Mary's .... they have an overall SOS Rank of # 172 .... which is not good
Thoughts ?
Since 2004, per Kenpom.com, 84 teams have had a top-10 offense or defense paired with an offense or defense that ranked worse than 70th. Guess how many made the Final Four? One: the 2012 Louisville Cardinals, who were an insanely good defensive team. Only three of these one-track bullies — 2014 Michigan, 2012 Florida, and 2011 Arizona — have made the Elite Eight. And 15 have made the Sweet 16. The takeaway: 82.1 percent of these teams did not make the Sweet 16 and 96.4 percent did not make the Elite Eight.
The teams to seriously avoid in 2015: Notre Dame (again), Davidson, BYU, Indiana (again), Iowa State (again), San Diego State (miserableoffense), Louisville, and a special clause for Butler, which verges very close to the limit on the offensive side.
Breakdown
2015
ND # 3 Seed .....Finished in Elite 8
Off 2 Rank / Def 99 Rank
Louisville # 4 Seed ....Finished in Elite 8
Off 66 Rank / Def 4 Rank
2016
Duke # 4 Seed ... Finished Sweet 16
Off 4 Rank / Def 86 Rank
Iowa St # 4 Seed .... Finished Sweet 16
Off 7 Rank / Def 91 Rank
ND # 6 Seed .....Finished Elite 8
Off 9 Rank / Def 158 Rank
2017
Michigan # 7 Seed .... Finished in Sweet 16
Off 4 Rank / Def 69 Rank
UCLA # 3 Seed .... Finished in Sweet 16
Off 2 Rank / Def 85 Rank
South Carolina # 7 Seed .... Finished Final 4
Off 91 Rank / Def 3 Rank
So that's
4 Teams who reached Sweet 16 Seeded from # 3 Seed to # 7 Seed
3 Teams who reached Elite 8 Seeded from # 3 Seed to # 6 Seed
1 Team who reached Final 4 Seeded at # 7
I expect this trend to continue this year so look for teams that are Seeded between 3 and 7 Seeds who have a discrepancy in their Offense and defensive rankings of at least 62 in rankings ..
Example Louisville
Off Rank 4 .... Def Rank 66 ....
2018 Teams which show the huge discrepancies between Off and Def Ranks that may have a shot of the Sweet 16 .....or Elite 8 .... only 1 team / last year's #7 South Carolina has made the final 4 ....
I will come back to this thread in hopes of removing a team or 2 from the following list with my stats I have on excel from previous Sweet 16 or Elite 8 qualifiers ....
2018 list of teams with shot at Sweet 16 ... I would pick only 1 of these teams ...possibly 2 ( your call )
Kenpom Rank before the team
#5 Duke Off 2 Rank / 79 Def Rank
#17 St Mary's Off 4 Rank / 111 Def Rank
#21 Texas A/M Off 71 Rank / 5 Def Rank
#22 Tcu Off 5 Rank / 128 Def Rank
#24 Arizona Off 8 Rank / 105 Def Rank
#41 NM ST Off 108 Rank / 7 Def Rank
#42 Alabama Off 100 Rank / 10 Def Rank
#43 Texas Off 110 Rank / 8 Def Rank
If I was picking 2 teams to watch they have a big shot of sweet 16 or elite 8
Duke
Tcu .... Exp Rank # 78 .... shot ...if they ever gel ?
St Mary's .... they have an overall SOS Rank of # 172 .... which is not good
Thoughts ?
