Help to understand 1H lines

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Good afternoon. I am am a lurker and appreciate reading the people on this forum. I have been doing better lately in NBA thanks to a better understanding of line movements. I am looking for some clarification on 1H lines. So typically 1H over/under is set higher than half of the game total over/under. for example..1H is 114 and game is 220.
My question is what would cause a 1H line to be considerably LOWER than half the total. For example..tonight's golden state 1H total is 112.5...and has dropped from 114 earlier today BUT the total for the game is 230! and has been going up. Anyway, as I said I appreciate the info I read on this forum and appreciate any response to my query.
 

Biz

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I have a friend that bets based on the 1H/Game total. If he sees a disparity in the lines, he bets.

He isn't winning, and the results are completely random.

It could be a number of things. Some teams score more/less in different halves for example.

As far as deciphering an edge, as I said my buddy bets these and he isn't winning.
 

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I never bet totals. Have no clue. But always thought the total was higher in the 2nd half because of all the freebie points you get late in the game from free throws on foul shots
 

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Thanks for the response. It seemed random to me but in the NBA I have noticed that the line moves much more than in the NFL and by paying attention to it I can follow the movement and keep in the black...or try to.
 
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sharps have found better angles on first half over/under totals than game totals. So the lines are over time adjusted accordingly and usually they are shaded a certain direction, as you noted in the OP.

I believe there are some tendencies for certain teams to start out faster/slower against certain opponents, thus why the first half line isn't the normal ratio.
 

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In addition to the fouls/free throws which extend the game ie more possessions, 2H totals also have a chance of overtime which increases the total.

I crunched total a lot of total numbers last year and they seem to be almost random. There may be spots where you can find an edge but IMO sides and ML easier.

I also tried out live totals. The books use an algo which should be beatable if not random, I had a good run for a while but then had a run of bad beats so worked out about breakeven.

Biggest edge I could find was in blowouts which favor the under as the subs are usually in for the last 4 or so minutes [and often its a brickathon] and there are usually fewer possessions to speed up the game. If you can anticipate the subs coming in early you have chance to beat the algo. The books shut the live totals at 6 minutes.

I think there is more value in looking at ML and teasers bets to reduce volatility ie teasers have less EV [expected value] but lower volatility. The EV for ML and spread should be similar so ML parlays are my favorite bet type. But if I like the dog on ML I will usually take the points.
 

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