Oaklawn 2-19-2018
Did okay yesterday with 5 of 9 winners but was really disappointed in blowing the Hornsby debut bomb in the last race. I pride myself on identifying setups and Hornsby is one I check. Almost a year to the day she teamed up with Loveberry to bring PROMISING SHOES at 33-1 in horse's second career start. In his first race he ran up the track badly at 42-1, ridden by Franco. So the question remains, why was PROMISING SHOES odds lower in his second start after running so poorly in debut. Answer: he was being bet by those in-the-know.
Unfortunately, I don't have insider info and have to study patterns. The presence of Loveberry on WASABI MOON in the 9th, as well as questionable workout pattern prompted a red flag and a visual inspection. And while the inspection warranted a bet, I talked myself out of it because Hornsby never wins debuts and add to that, the fact I picked BRAHMIE 18-1 (Hornsby/Loveberry) as a live shot in the 2nd, making his second life start, ran up the track.
Very stupid mistake. Always go with your initial call.
race #1 - 8f
#2 5-2 LIL VIE
#7 3-1 MISS DARLEY - gets Santana/blinks, almost picked on top but that's a bad combo
#3 2-1 TRIPLE KAPALUA - Stevens always overrated (favs 2/7=29%, favsOffTheBoard 4/7 =57%, favsOddsOn 0/2=0%)
#5 8-1 THE GIRL FACTOR - lone speed
race #2 - 6f
... very tough full field, most could win.
#8 5-1 ALABAMA TIDE
#10 7-2 TIZ SHOWBIZ
#11 15-1 INTERNET SUCCESS - slop+
#1 3-1 COUGAR COUNTRY
race #3 - 8.5f
#6 8-1 MINEYEROWNMALONE
#1A 3-1 ROMA ROAD
#7 7-2 GLITNIR
race #4 - 6f
#1 7-2 PROXIMUS - Oxbow has never sired a debut winner and only 1 sprint winner out of 60 trys ... so what they heck am I doing.
#8 5-2 WYATT'S TOWN - logical
#2 6-1 ROYAL EDITION - holy crap, Lukas turning back a 3yo in February!! That usually doesn't happen until well after May.
race #5 - 8f
#1 8-5 DAZZLING GEM - Stevens on the favorite ... cringe.
#6 15-1 HALLELUJAH HIT
#7 7-2 ROYAL SQUEEZE
race #6 - 8f
#3 5-2 LIONITE
#6 6-1 YELLOW WOLF
#1 4-1 PRYOR
race #7 - 6f
#9 7-2 SWORN SILENCE
#5 3-1 MIZ K
#4 9-2 THREE CHORDS
race #8 - 8.5f
#7 12-1 SHOTGUN KOWBOY
#6 4-1 SONNETEER
#1 9-2 UNTRAPPED
#3 10-1 HAWAAKOM
race #9 - 8.5f
#2 9-2 SPORTING CHANCE
#4 2-1 MOURINHO
#10 6-1 COMBATANT
#11 12-1 EZMOSH
race #10 - 8.5f
#5 4-1 NEW YORK CENTRAL
#8 5-2 ZULFIKHAR
#6 2-1 TRANSGRESS
#2 8-1 DREAM BABY DREAM
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
Did okay yesterday with 5 of 9 winners but was really disappointed in blowing the Hornsby debut bomb in the last race. I pride myself on identifying setups and Hornsby is one I check. Almost a year to the day she teamed up with Loveberry to bring PROMISING SHOES at 33-1 in horse's second career start. In his first race he ran up the track badly at 42-1, ridden by Franco. So the question remains, why was PROMISING SHOES odds lower in his second start after running so poorly in debut. Answer: he was being bet by those in-the-know.
Unfortunately, I don't have insider info and have to study patterns. The presence of Loveberry on WASABI MOON in the 9th, as well as questionable workout pattern prompted a red flag and a visual inspection. And while the inspection warranted a bet, I talked myself out of it because Hornsby never wins debuts and add to that, the fact I picked BRAHMIE 18-1 (Hornsby/Loveberry) as a live shot in the 2nd, making his second life start, ran up the track.
Very stupid mistake. Always go with your initial call.
race #1 - 8f
#2 5-2 LIL VIE
#7 3-1 MISS DARLEY - gets Santana/blinks, almost picked on top but that's a bad combo
#3 2-1 TRIPLE KAPALUA - Stevens always overrated (favs 2/7=29%, favsOffTheBoard 4/7 =57%, favsOddsOn 0/2=0%)
#5 8-1 THE GIRL FACTOR - lone speed
race #2 - 6f
... very tough full field, most could win.
#8 5-1 ALABAMA TIDE
#10 7-2 TIZ SHOWBIZ
#11 15-1 INTERNET SUCCESS - slop+
#1 3-1 COUGAR COUNTRY
race #3 - 8.5f
#6 8-1 MINEYEROWNMALONE
#1A 3-1 ROMA ROAD
#7 7-2 GLITNIR
race #4 - 6f
#1 7-2 PROXIMUS - Oxbow has never sired a debut winner and only 1 sprint winner out of 60 trys ... so what they heck am I doing.
#8 5-2 WYATT'S TOWN - logical
#2 6-1 ROYAL EDITION - holy crap, Lukas turning back a 3yo in February!! That usually doesn't happen until well after May.
race #5 - 8f
#1 8-5 DAZZLING GEM - Stevens on the favorite ... cringe.
#6 15-1 HALLELUJAH HIT
#7 7-2 ROYAL SQUEEZE
race #6 - 8f
#3 5-2 LIONITE
#6 6-1 YELLOW WOLF
#1 4-1 PRYOR
race #7 - 6f
#9 7-2 SWORN SILENCE
#5 3-1 MIZ K
#4 9-2 THREE CHORDS
race #8 - 8.5f
#7 12-1 SHOTGUN KOWBOY
#6 4-1 SONNETEER
#1 9-2 UNTRAPPED
#3 10-1 HAWAAKOM
race #9 - 8.5f
#2 9-2 SPORTING CHANCE
#4 2-1 MOURINHO
#10 6-1 COMBATANT
#11 12-1 EZMOSH
race #10 - 8.5f
#5 4-1 NEW YORK CENTRAL
#8 5-2 ZULFIKHAR
#6 2-1 TRANSGRESS
#2 8-1 DREAM BABY DREAM
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
