NHL rookie rankings: Mathew Barzal running away with the lead
Chris Peters
ESPN INSIDER
Barring something unforeseen, New York Islanders rookie Mathew Barzal is starting to look like he'll run away with the Calder Trophy this year. With 62 points in 61 games, he leads all rookies by 12 points and ranks 16th overall in the NHL. He is just the latest example of a first-year player raising the bar for our expectations of what is possible for rookies.
The influx of budding stars is making for a more entertaining product on the ice. Barzal is absolutely the kind of player who you want to pay to watch. Even if he were just doing laps in an empty arena, you could probably charge for to see him impress.
I was chatting last week with some college hockey coaches and scouts who were attending the U18 Five Nations Tournament in Michigan and asked why they thought young players were making the transition so easily to the NHL in the last few years. There are a number of reasons that I heard, but one of the most common answers was that the rise of specialized skills and skating coaches has made a big impact.
Players are coming into the NHL with more detail to their games. The bag of tricks each player enters the league with is growing. Most also would agree that there are better-rounded athletes playing hockey today than ever before. These aren't big revelations by any stretch, but the trend is bringing more entertaining players to the fray.
Watching the Olympics over the last week showed that the next wave of NHL rookies are going to be pretty darn good, too. Olympians Eeli Tolvanen, Miro Heiskanen, Troy Terry, Ryan Donato and Jordan Greenway could all be in the NHL as early as the end of this season, which will further crowd an already strong rookie class. Many of them could, and probably will, populate this list on a regular basis next year.
Here's the latest rookie power rankings for the 2017-18 season.
1. Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders
With a 12-point lead on the field, it's starting to look like a runaway for Barzal. While his production is impressive, and he's got those insane five-point games under his belt, I think his ability to carry a top-six line at the NHL level is what impresses me most. Even if John Tavares picks up a lot of the opposition's top defenders, there are plenty of No. 2 centers out there who can't outright dominate who they play against. At 20 years old, Barzal is driving possession and scoring on one of the best second lines in hockey. It's beyond impressive.
Only five rookies who appeared in at least half their team's games have produced at a point-per-game pace or better since 2005-06, when Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin reset the bar for rookie production. Ovechkin (1.31), Crosby (1.26), Evgeni Malkin (1.09) and Connor McDavid (1.07) each finished the season with that lofty rate of production. Right now, Barzal is at 1.02 points per game. Extend that out to 20 years, and it's still those five. Extend that 30 years to 1987-88, and Barzal is still in the top 15 for per-game production, ahead of the likes of Brett Hull, Mike Modano and Pavel Bure.
Barzal was selected 16th overall in 2015, and the Isles had to give up on former No. 4 overall pick Griffin Reinhart to acquire that draft choice from the Edmonton Oilers. It seemed risky at the time, but Reinhart still isn't an everyday NHLer, and Barzal is having the best rookie season for the Islanders since Bryan Trottier and Mike Bossy. It's fair to quibble with GM Garth Snow's body of work, but this has been a home run of a deal -- and it has a chance to get even better down the line.
2. Brock Boeser, LW, Vancouver Canucks
Like Barzal, Boeser is having one of the better rookie seasons of the last 30 years. He's in the top 25 in points-per-game by a rookie with at least 41 games played in a season, dating back to 1987-88. He's also top-15 in goals per game, even though he's slightly fallen off pace from earlier this season. It's looking a little less likely that Boeser will top 40 goals this year, but the 38 he is on pace to score is still pretty impressive. Only eight rookies have hit that mark since 1987-88.
When looking at Boeser, his value to the Canucks is also a big factor. He leads the team in scoring by 10 points and is scoring goals at nearly double the per-game rate of his next closest teammate. The Canucks aren't doing too hot, but they'd probably be an utter disaster without him.
3. Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins
The Bruins have been one of the NHL's best teams, and they're doing it with a No. 2 defenseman who just turned 20 years old in December. It's often been said that defense is the toughest position to learn on the job in the NHL, but in recent years, we keep seeing teenagers or players in their very early 20s make the transition. However, few have made the transition look as easy as McAvoy. Part of that comes from playing with Zdeno Chara, but that shouldn't discount McAvoy's impact.
After playing a boatload of minutes at the start of the season, McAvoy's ice time has been tapering just a bit. The Bruins seem to be managing him a little bit more now, though McAvoy still logs big minutes. Considering it's his first full pro season, and he had surgery to repair a non-life-threatening heart condition, it's to be expected.
Though his average has gone down, McAvoy is still the leader in time on-ice per game among rookies. Where he really separates himself is how much he plays at even strength. McAvoy's 19:43 per game at even numbers is the second-highest average ever recorded by a rookie, per NHL.com's stats. McAvoy doesn't put up gaudy stats (27 points in 54 games), but he is part of one of the most dominant pairings in the NHL and helps make the Bruins the President's Trophy threat that they are.
4. Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils
I don't think the gap is big between Hischier and McAvoy, especially in their ability to make an impact. At just 18 years old, Hischier is a No. 1 center for a team in the playoff hunt. It helps to play with a guy like Taylor Hall, who is right in the thick of the Hart Trophy discussion, but Hischier is hardly a passenger since moving to the top unit. He's also getting better as the season wears on.
Hischier has 16 points in 22 games since the calendar turned to 2018, third best among rookies. Looking at the season as a whole, he is second among all rookies with 34 points at even strength and has 40 total points. Hischier also has an incredible work ethic on the ice that melds well with his high level of skill. Perhaps it's no surprise then that he is tied with the speedy Barzal with 28 minor penalties drawn this season. He just keeps coming up big for this team.
"He's a gamer. That's what separates some players," Devils coach John Hynes said last week (via NJ.com). "There's a lot of talented players in the league, but there's other guys, when the pressure gets turned up or the games become more intense or you need guys to step up and make plays and have strong games, Nico's done that. The last few division games we've played, he's been a major factor. It's not surprising, but it's nice to see."
5. Yanni Gourde, C/W, Tampa Bay Lightning
Gourde isn't going to get a lot of Calder buzz, but he should pick up some votes this year. A lot of that has to do with his age. He just made the Calder age cutoff, as he turned 26 in December. But a first-year player in the NHL is still a first-year player, and Gourde has been a really good one.
The thing that stands out about him is his versatility. The Lightning have had him all over the lineup, and no matter where he goes, he seems to perform. With 45 points, he is third in rookie scoring and his 22 goals are tied for second behind Boeser. Gourde is fourth among all rookies in total shorthanded time and plays on Tampa's power play. He can do it all for the league's best team, on which he is the fourth-leading scorer.
Gourde was never drafted, worked his way to a minor-league deal and played his way to a contract with Tampa. He got called up in two previous seasons, but didn't stick until this year. I don't think he should win the Calder, but I do think he has an incredible story that deserves more attention.
6. Clayton Keller, RW, Arizona Coyotes
Keller appears to be heating back up after going through a long offensive lull following his torrid start to the season (17 points in his first 16 games). The 19-year-old forward has eight points in his last six games as the Coyotes remain in the league basement. As bad as the Coyotes may be, Keller leading them this year is an important development. He is a foundational piece whom the team could continue to build around.
We thought Anthony Duclair and Max Domi were going to be those players before, but Duclair already was dealt this season and Domi's name keeps popping up in the trade rumor mill. There is not much for Arizona to hang its hat on right now, but Keller leading the team in scoring as a teenage rookie is one positive development.
7. Mikhail Sergachev, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are rumored to be in the market for another defenseman, so it will be interesting to see how that has an impact on Sergachev's role on the team. His usage is more in line with a third-period defenseman, but he's seen his minutes trend up in the last month-plus. Regardless of how much he plays, Sergachev continues to make the most of his opportunities by producing at a high rate. The 19-year-old Russian is 25th in scoring by defensemen overall, but ranks sixth with 2.04 points per 60 minutes.
Tampa getting scoring depth from its blue line is one of the many reasons it's been so good this year. There is not another depth defenseman in the league maximizing his value in the minutes he plays as much as Sergachev. The best part for Tampa? It looks like Sergachev is only scratching the surface of what he can be in the long term. Once he starts getting into the top-four rotation regularly, it could be scary for everyone else.
8. Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Selected one pick after the Isles took Barzal, Connor has been making the Jets look good since the day they drafted him. He had to bide his time in the AHL a little more than one might have expected, but the dividends are paying off this season. Connor is third on Winnipeg with 21 goals. Each of the team's top three scorers -- Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers and Connor -- are 21 years old or younger.
Connor is playing on Winnipeg's top line with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, which is probably harder than it sounds. I've been talking to scouts in preparation for the 2018 draft and one thing they've brought up about some of the wings in consideration is how they'd look next to elite centers. It takes an especially skilled player to play at that level, and Connor has proved he belongs exactly where he is in the lineup. In his first full NHL season, for one of the West's top teams, that's an incredible feat.
9. Danton Heinen, LW, Boston Bruins
The Bruins have been able to turn to their young players to provide depth, and that has helped them build a roster in the mix for the President's Trophy at this late stage of the season. Heinen has been one of the key youngsters who has contributed even more than expected. With 39 points, he is sixth in rookie scoring. He's also fourth on the Bruins, right behind the team's elite top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. Heinen has also seen significant time on the team's second power-play unit.
The Bruins have put a lot of trust in their young players. Heinen has had to earn that trust over time, starting the season in the AHL, but he played well enough to be tabbed as a fill-in on Boston's top line while Marchand was suspended -- and he could hang. It seems that Heinen just keeps getting better and appears to be a fourth-round steal for the B's.
10. Will Butcher, D, New Jersey Devils
Another depth defenseman making the most of the minutes he gets, Butcher has proven to be a revelation for the Devils. I'm not sure anyone handicapping the pursuit of Butcher's services would have said he'd end up in New Jersey, but it couldn't have worked out better for the Hobey Baker winner. With 30 points, Butcher is right behind Sergachev, 26th among all blueliners. He is eighth in points per 60 minutes with 1.88, and Brent Burns and P.K. Subban are the two players in front of him on that chart.
The thing I've been most impressed with is the way his poise and hockey sense have translated to the NHL level. His smarts have always stood out, but when the game got more physical and faster at the NHL level, he managed to play the same way that made him successful in college.
Honorable mention:
Alex DeBrincat, LW/RW, Chicago Blackhawks
Jesper Bratt, LW, New Jersey Devils
Alexander Kerfoot, C, Colorado Avalanche
Adrian Kempe, LW, Los Angeles Kings
Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Chris Peters
ESPN INSIDER
Barring something unforeseen, New York Islanders rookie Mathew Barzal is starting to look like he'll run away with the Calder Trophy this year. With 62 points in 61 games, he leads all rookies by 12 points and ranks 16th overall in the NHL. He is just the latest example of a first-year player raising the bar for our expectations of what is possible for rookies.
The influx of budding stars is making for a more entertaining product on the ice. Barzal is absolutely the kind of player who you want to pay to watch. Even if he were just doing laps in an empty arena, you could probably charge for to see him impress.
I was chatting last week with some college hockey coaches and scouts who were attending the U18 Five Nations Tournament in Michigan and asked why they thought young players were making the transition so easily to the NHL in the last few years. There are a number of reasons that I heard, but one of the most common answers was that the rise of specialized skills and skating coaches has made a big impact.
Players are coming into the NHL with more detail to their games. The bag of tricks each player enters the league with is growing. Most also would agree that there are better-rounded athletes playing hockey today than ever before. These aren't big revelations by any stretch, but the trend is bringing more entertaining players to the fray.
Watching the Olympics over the last week showed that the next wave of NHL rookies are going to be pretty darn good, too. Olympians Eeli Tolvanen, Miro Heiskanen, Troy Terry, Ryan Donato and Jordan Greenway could all be in the NHL as early as the end of this season, which will further crowd an already strong rookie class. Many of them could, and probably will, populate this list on a regular basis next year.
Here's the latest rookie power rankings for the 2017-18 season.
1. Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders
With a 12-point lead on the field, it's starting to look like a runaway for Barzal. While his production is impressive, and he's got those insane five-point games under his belt, I think his ability to carry a top-six line at the NHL level is what impresses me most. Even if John Tavares picks up a lot of the opposition's top defenders, there are plenty of No. 2 centers out there who can't outright dominate who they play against. At 20 years old, Barzal is driving possession and scoring on one of the best second lines in hockey. It's beyond impressive.
Only five rookies who appeared in at least half their team's games have produced at a point-per-game pace or better since 2005-06, when Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin reset the bar for rookie production. Ovechkin (1.31), Crosby (1.26), Evgeni Malkin (1.09) and Connor McDavid (1.07) each finished the season with that lofty rate of production. Right now, Barzal is at 1.02 points per game. Extend that out to 20 years, and it's still those five. Extend that 30 years to 1987-88, and Barzal is still in the top 15 for per-game production, ahead of the likes of Brett Hull, Mike Modano and Pavel Bure.
Barzal was selected 16th overall in 2015, and the Isles had to give up on former No. 4 overall pick Griffin Reinhart to acquire that draft choice from the Edmonton Oilers. It seemed risky at the time, but Reinhart still isn't an everyday NHLer, and Barzal is having the best rookie season for the Islanders since Bryan Trottier and Mike Bossy. It's fair to quibble with GM Garth Snow's body of work, but this has been a home run of a deal -- and it has a chance to get even better down the line.
2. Brock Boeser, LW, Vancouver Canucks
Like Barzal, Boeser is having one of the better rookie seasons of the last 30 years. He's in the top 25 in points-per-game by a rookie with at least 41 games played in a season, dating back to 1987-88. He's also top-15 in goals per game, even though he's slightly fallen off pace from earlier this season. It's looking a little less likely that Boeser will top 40 goals this year, but the 38 he is on pace to score is still pretty impressive. Only eight rookies have hit that mark since 1987-88.
When looking at Boeser, his value to the Canucks is also a big factor. He leads the team in scoring by 10 points and is scoring goals at nearly double the per-game rate of his next closest teammate. The Canucks aren't doing too hot, but they'd probably be an utter disaster without him.
3. Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins
The Bruins have been one of the NHL's best teams, and they're doing it with a No. 2 defenseman who just turned 20 years old in December. It's often been said that defense is the toughest position to learn on the job in the NHL, but in recent years, we keep seeing teenagers or players in their very early 20s make the transition. However, few have made the transition look as easy as McAvoy. Part of that comes from playing with Zdeno Chara, but that shouldn't discount McAvoy's impact.
After playing a boatload of minutes at the start of the season, McAvoy's ice time has been tapering just a bit. The Bruins seem to be managing him a little bit more now, though McAvoy still logs big minutes. Considering it's his first full pro season, and he had surgery to repair a non-life-threatening heart condition, it's to be expected.
Though his average has gone down, McAvoy is still the leader in time on-ice per game among rookies. Where he really separates himself is how much he plays at even strength. McAvoy's 19:43 per game at even numbers is the second-highest average ever recorded by a rookie, per NHL.com's stats. McAvoy doesn't put up gaudy stats (27 points in 54 games), but he is part of one of the most dominant pairings in the NHL and helps make the Bruins the President's Trophy threat that they are.
4. Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils
I don't think the gap is big between Hischier and McAvoy, especially in their ability to make an impact. At just 18 years old, Hischier is a No. 1 center for a team in the playoff hunt. It helps to play with a guy like Taylor Hall, who is right in the thick of the Hart Trophy discussion, but Hischier is hardly a passenger since moving to the top unit. He's also getting better as the season wears on.
Hischier has 16 points in 22 games since the calendar turned to 2018, third best among rookies. Looking at the season as a whole, he is second among all rookies with 34 points at even strength and has 40 total points. Hischier also has an incredible work ethic on the ice that melds well with his high level of skill. Perhaps it's no surprise then that he is tied with the speedy Barzal with 28 minor penalties drawn this season. He just keeps coming up big for this team.
"He's a gamer. That's what separates some players," Devils coach John Hynes said last week (via NJ.com). "There's a lot of talented players in the league, but there's other guys, when the pressure gets turned up or the games become more intense or you need guys to step up and make plays and have strong games, Nico's done that. The last few division games we've played, he's been a major factor. It's not surprising, but it's nice to see."
5. Yanni Gourde, C/W, Tampa Bay Lightning
Gourde isn't going to get a lot of Calder buzz, but he should pick up some votes this year. A lot of that has to do with his age. He just made the Calder age cutoff, as he turned 26 in December. But a first-year player in the NHL is still a first-year player, and Gourde has been a really good one.
The thing that stands out about him is his versatility. The Lightning have had him all over the lineup, and no matter where he goes, he seems to perform. With 45 points, he is third in rookie scoring and his 22 goals are tied for second behind Boeser. Gourde is fourth among all rookies in total shorthanded time and plays on Tampa's power play. He can do it all for the league's best team, on which he is the fourth-leading scorer.
Gourde was never drafted, worked his way to a minor-league deal and played his way to a contract with Tampa. He got called up in two previous seasons, but didn't stick until this year. I don't think he should win the Calder, but I do think he has an incredible story that deserves more attention.
6. Clayton Keller, RW, Arizona Coyotes
Keller appears to be heating back up after going through a long offensive lull following his torrid start to the season (17 points in his first 16 games). The 19-year-old forward has eight points in his last six games as the Coyotes remain in the league basement. As bad as the Coyotes may be, Keller leading them this year is an important development. He is a foundational piece whom the team could continue to build around.
We thought Anthony Duclair and Max Domi were going to be those players before, but Duclair already was dealt this season and Domi's name keeps popping up in the trade rumor mill. There is not much for Arizona to hang its hat on right now, but Keller leading the team in scoring as a teenage rookie is one positive development.
7. Mikhail Sergachev, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are rumored to be in the market for another defenseman, so it will be interesting to see how that has an impact on Sergachev's role on the team. His usage is more in line with a third-period defenseman, but he's seen his minutes trend up in the last month-plus. Regardless of how much he plays, Sergachev continues to make the most of his opportunities by producing at a high rate. The 19-year-old Russian is 25th in scoring by defensemen overall, but ranks sixth with 2.04 points per 60 minutes.
Tampa getting scoring depth from its blue line is one of the many reasons it's been so good this year. There is not another depth defenseman in the league maximizing his value in the minutes he plays as much as Sergachev. The best part for Tampa? It looks like Sergachev is only scratching the surface of what he can be in the long term. Once he starts getting into the top-four rotation regularly, it could be scary for everyone else.
8. Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Selected one pick after the Isles took Barzal, Connor has been making the Jets look good since the day they drafted him. He had to bide his time in the AHL a little more than one might have expected, but the dividends are paying off this season. Connor is third on Winnipeg with 21 goals. Each of the team's top three scorers -- Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers and Connor -- are 21 years old or younger.
Connor is playing on Winnipeg's top line with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, which is probably harder than it sounds. I've been talking to scouts in preparation for the 2018 draft and one thing they've brought up about some of the wings in consideration is how they'd look next to elite centers. It takes an especially skilled player to play at that level, and Connor has proved he belongs exactly where he is in the lineup. In his first full NHL season, for one of the West's top teams, that's an incredible feat.
9. Danton Heinen, LW, Boston Bruins
The Bruins have been able to turn to their young players to provide depth, and that has helped them build a roster in the mix for the President's Trophy at this late stage of the season. Heinen has been one of the key youngsters who has contributed even more than expected. With 39 points, he is sixth in rookie scoring. He's also fourth on the Bruins, right behind the team's elite top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. Heinen has also seen significant time on the team's second power-play unit.
The Bruins have put a lot of trust in their young players. Heinen has had to earn that trust over time, starting the season in the AHL, but he played well enough to be tabbed as a fill-in on Boston's top line while Marchand was suspended -- and he could hang. It seems that Heinen just keeps getting better and appears to be a fourth-round steal for the B's.
10. Will Butcher, D, New Jersey Devils
Another depth defenseman making the most of the minutes he gets, Butcher has proven to be a revelation for the Devils. I'm not sure anyone handicapping the pursuit of Butcher's services would have said he'd end up in New Jersey, but it couldn't have worked out better for the Hobey Baker winner. With 30 points, Butcher is right behind Sergachev, 26th among all blueliners. He is eighth in points per 60 minutes with 1.88, and Brent Burns and P.K. Subban are the two players in front of him on that chart.
The thing I've been most impressed with is the way his poise and hockey sense have translated to the NHL level. His smarts have always stood out, but when the game got more physical and faster at the NHL level, he managed to play the same way that made him successful in college.
Honorable mention:
Alex DeBrincat, LW/RW, Chicago Blackhawks
Jesper Bratt, LW, New Jersey Devils
Alexander Kerfoot, C, Colorado Avalanche
Adrian Kempe, LW, Los Angeles Kings
Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
