Best Stanley Cup midseason value bets
Ben Arledge
ESPN INSIDER
Put your pencils down, no more trades. With the NHL's Feb. 26 trade deadline in the rearview mirror, Stanley Cup contending rosters are a little clearer.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were one of the big winners of the day, nabbing Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers, adding more coal to their playoff fire. There is just no weakness on this team.
However, the Bolts are currently 5-1 favorites to win the Cup in June, and we aren't interested in betting teams with odds better than 10-1 at this point in the season. Tampa's chances aren't likely to improve significantly (or maybe at all), so why risk injuries or cold streaks this far out. If you're set on betting the Lightning, just wait. No need to jump on them now at those odds.
Instead, this is the time to grab teams with value odds. You are looking for teams with long odds that stand to improve or get healthier down the stretch and challenge for the championship. Ideally, you want teams that will see their odds improve over the next month. The Winnipeg Jets would have topped my list, but they dipped from 10-1 to 8-1 following the deadline acquisition of Paul Stastny. I'm holding at this point, seeking only teams with odds in the double digits.
Here is a look at some of the best value bets to win the 2018 Stanley Cup, as of the trade deadline. Four of the following teams provide good value and a legitimate shot to run the table, while two of the clubs (40-1 or worse) are more long-shot opportunities.
Odds are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Feb. 28.
Toronto Maple Leafs (12-1)
I hesitate slightly to tap the Leafs in this spot. Despite making a move for center Tomas Plekanec at the deadline, Toronto failed to land a defenseman (which it undoubtedly needed). Additionally, the health of Auston Matthews is still foggy. It's been suggested he will return by the end of the regular season, but details and/or a timeline for his shoulder injury aren't yet known. His near point-per-game pace drives the ship for the Leafs, so diving in on Toronto at 12-1 means you feel confident the 20-year-old phenom will be back in due time. And if he does return soon, expect those odds to shrink.
With all that said, the Leafs are legitimate. Matthews leads a talented forward group that just improved further with Plekanec. All four lines are competitive, even without Matthews in the fray. Goaltender Frederik Andersen has a strong .922 save percentage, and head coach Mike Babcock knows how to win. With a playoff spot pretty much on lock, Toronto is worth a look, even sans that coveted top-pair defenseman to slide in alongside Morgan Rielly.
Philadelphia Flyers (18-1)
The Flyers are molten hot right now, earning at least a point in 12 straight contests dating back to Feb. 3. Sean Couturier is amidst a breakout season with 29 goals, while Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds also top the 20 mark. Jakub Voracek has 56 assists, and Travis Konecny has 21 points since the start of 2018. On the back end, Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov are carrying the load, and trade acquisition Petr Mrazek has been steady in the crease since coming over to replace an injured Brian Elliott. You get it, the Philly boys are on fire.
Could the Flyers, currently second the Metropolitan Division, actually go the distance, giving the City of Brotherly Love a Stanley Cup ring alongside its new Super Bowl title? It's very possible, as long as they don't suffer the normal goaltender playoff flameout. Although the deadline was quiet for Philadelphia, don't discount this roster.
Dallas Stars (20-1)
Like the Flyers, Dallas was silent as the Monday deadline hit. GM Jim Nill told the Dallas News that he liked the current locker room, feeling no need to make a splash. Indeed, the offseason additions of Ben Bishop in goal and Alexander Radulov up front have paid off. Radulov leads all Stars with 56 points, while Bishop has been sturdy in net. With Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin already in the fold, there is no doubting the Stars' ability to find the back of the net, even despite a middle-of-the-pack 2.9 goals per game.
Currently sitting in a wild-card seat, Dallas is far from safe in a competitive Western Conference. However, you have to consider the entire picture with these early gambles. If the Stars do make the playoffs, you have to like their ability to win games in the postseason. Bishop has plenty of playoff experience from his days with Tampa Bay, and the offense would be able to support the much-improved defense. Those 20-1 odds aren't bad at all.
San Jose Sharks (30-1)
Welcome to town, Evander Kane. The Sharks added the potent winger on Monday, improving both an offense that needed help and a power play that was already sixth in the league. If Joe Thornton returns, San Jose has good stock up front. That's not even including Brent Burns' team-leading 51 points from the blue line and a dynamic goalie duo in Martin Jones and Aaron Dell.
Even with the surprisingly-dominant Vegas Golden Knights standing in front of the door in the Pacific Division, the Sharks have a good chance to emerge from that bracket to face a Central Division foe in the conference final, given their depth and experience. At 30-1, San Jose could be the best bet on the board at this point in the season.
Calgary Flames (40-1)
This one depends on how serious Mike Smith's injury is. The Flames did not make a move for a goalie at the deadline, so that lends itself to the idea that Smith should be just fine and back in action soon enough. If that's so, Calgary would be in good position to hop back into a playoff spot. Johnny Gaudreau has an absurd 73 points, and Sean Monahan has contributed 29 goals. The blue line runs deep, as well. Additionally, the team's advanced numbers, including SAT percentage, are very strong, representative of a team that controls the play. It's a longshot, but Calgary has the makeup to put together a Cup run. But first, let's get Smith healthy and get back to a postseason seed.
New Jersey Devils (50-1)
Here's my deep Matt Saracen-esque Hail Mary pass. I like the Devils at 50-1 a lot. They made a pair of sneaky depth adds with Michael Grabner and Patrick Maroon, and they should get Cory Schneider back in the crease from injury this week. Sure, it's a longshot, but Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt lead an improved offense, while Will Butcher and Sami Vatanen have shored up a long-dismal defense. New Jersey is in good standing to reach the playoffs, and if Schneider gets hot and all cylinders are firing for the offense, it will not be an easy out. Toss in those great odds, and there is definite value here.
Ben Arledge
ESPN INSIDER
Put your pencils down, no more trades. With the NHL's Feb. 26 trade deadline in the rearview mirror, Stanley Cup contending rosters are a little clearer.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were one of the big winners of the day, nabbing Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers, adding more coal to their playoff fire. There is just no weakness on this team.
However, the Bolts are currently 5-1 favorites to win the Cup in June, and we aren't interested in betting teams with odds better than 10-1 at this point in the season. Tampa's chances aren't likely to improve significantly (or maybe at all), so why risk injuries or cold streaks this far out. If you're set on betting the Lightning, just wait. No need to jump on them now at those odds.
Instead, this is the time to grab teams with value odds. You are looking for teams with long odds that stand to improve or get healthier down the stretch and challenge for the championship. Ideally, you want teams that will see their odds improve over the next month. The Winnipeg Jets would have topped my list, but they dipped from 10-1 to 8-1 following the deadline acquisition of Paul Stastny. I'm holding at this point, seeking only teams with odds in the double digits.
Here is a look at some of the best value bets to win the 2018 Stanley Cup, as of the trade deadline. Four of the following teams provide good value and a legitimate shot to run the table, while two of the clubs (40-1 or worse) are more long-shot opportunities.
Odds are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Feb. 28.
Toronto Maple Leafs (12-1)
I hesitate slightly to tap the Leafs in this spot. Despite making a move for center Tomas Plekanec at the deadline, Toronto failed to land a defenseman (which it undoubtedly needed). Additionally, the health of Auston Matthews is still foggy. It's been suggested he will return by the end of the regular season, but details and/or a timeline for his shoulder injury aren't yet known. His near point-per-game pace drives the ship for the Leafs, so diving in on Toronto at 12-1 means you feel confident the 20-year-old phenom will be back in due time. And if he does return soon, expect those odds to shrink.
With all that said, the Leafs are legitimate. Matthews leads a talented forward group that just improved further with Plekanec. All four lines are competitive, even without Matthews in the fray. Goaltender Frederik Andersen has a strong .922 save percentage, and head coach Mike Babcock knows how to win. With a playoff spot pretty much on lock, Toronto is worth a look, even sans that coveted top-pair defenseman to slide in alongside Morgan Rielly.
Philadelphia Flyers (18-1)
The Flyers are molten hot right now, earning at least a point in 12 straight contests dating back to Feb. 3. Sean Couturier is amidst a breakout season with 29 goals, while Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds also top the 20 mark. Jakub Voracek has 56 assists, and Travis Konecny has 21 points since the start of 2018. On the back end, Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov are carrying the load, and trade acquisition Petr Mrazek has been steady in the crease since coming over to replace an injured Brian Elliott. You get it, the Philly boys are on fire.
Could the Flyers, currently second the Metropolitan Division, actually go the distance, giving the City of Brotherly Love a Stanley Cup ring alongside its new Super Bowl title? It's very possible, as long as they don't suffer the normal goaltender playoff flameout. Although the deadline was quiet for Philadelphia, don't discount this roster.
Dallas Stars (20-1)
Like the Flyers, Dallas was silent as the Monday deadline hit. GM Jim Nill told the Dallas News that he liked the current locker room, feeling no need to make a splash. Indeed, the offseason additions of Ben Bishop in goal and Alexander Radulov up front have paid off. Radulov leads all Stars with 56 points, while Bishop has been sturdy in net. With Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin already in the fold, there is no doubting the Stars' ability to find the back of the net, even despite a middle-of-the-pack 2.9 goals per game.
Currently sitting in a wild-card seat, Dallas is far from safe in a competitive Western Conference. However, you have to consider the entire picture with these early gambles. If the Stars do make the playoffs, you have to like their ability to win games in the postseason. Bishop has plenty of playoff experience from his days with Tampa Bay, and the offense would be able to support the much-improved defense. Those 20-1 odds aren't bad at all.
San Jose Sharks (30-1)
Welcome to town, Evander Kane. The Sharks added the potent winger on Monday, improving both an offense that needed help and a power play that was already sixth in the league. If Joe Thornton returns, San Jose has good stock up front. That's not even including Brent Burns' team-leading 51 points from the blue line and a dynamic goalie duo in Martin Jones and Aaron Dell.
Even with the surprisingly-dominant Vegas Golden Knights standing in front of the door in the Pacific Division, the Sharks have a good chance to emerge from that bracket to face a Central Division foe in the conference final, given their depth and experience. At 30-1, San Jose could be the best bet on the board at this point in the season.
Calgary Flames (40-1)
This one depends on how serious Mike Smith's injury is. The Flames did not make a move for a goalie at the deadline, so that lends itself to the idea that Smith should be just fine and back in action soon enough. If that's so, Calgary would be in good position to hop back into a playoff spot. Johnny Gaudreau has an absurd 73 points, and Sean Monahan has contributed 29 goals. The blue line runs deep, as well. Additionally, the team's advanced numbers, including SAT percentage, are very strong, representative of a team that controls the play. It's a longshot, but Calgary has the makeup to put together a Cup run. But first, let's get Smith healthy and get back to a postseason seed.
New Jersey Devils (50-1)
Here's my deep Matt Saracen-esque Hail Mary pass. I like the Devils at 50-1 a lot. They made a pair of sneaky depth adds with Michael Grabner and Patrick Maroon, and they should get Cory Schneider back in the crease from injury this week. Sure, it's a longshot, but Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt lead an improved offense, while Will Butcher and Sami Vatanen have shored up a long-dismal defense. New Jersey is in good standing to reach the playoffs, and if Schneider gets hot and all cylinders are firing for the offense, it will not be an easy out. Toss in those great odds, and there is definite value here.
