Law: Rookies who can make a major MLB impact in 2018
Keith Law
ESPN INSIDER
When I published my rankings of the top 100 prospects in baseball, I was considering the long-term value of the players on the list and off of it. I was also considering how far away they were and the risk that they might not reach their ceilings and might fail to reach the majors at all.Potential impact in 2018 was just a small consideration. Although there’s clear value in being confident that Player X is going to produce for you this year, few teams will give up big, long-term upside for the certainty of a player in the short term. This list looks at only potential production in 2018, in light of what I think each player's likely playing time might be with two weeks left before teams set their Opening Day rosters. Many players I've written about here will probably start the year in the minors or on a bench, but they seem likely enough to get significant major league time in 2018 that I've ranked them accordingly.
I have written about the top 15 prospects for this year, and I have listed in a separate section at the end anyone else I think has a good shot to produce this year, in roughly descending order.
Editor's note: Players with experience in foreign major leagues like Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO, such as Shohei Ohtani, are ineligible for these rankings.
1. Ryan McMahon, 1B, Colorado Rockies: McMahon has a lot going for him beyond his athleticism and natural ability to hit -- notably, a full-time job and a friendly home park. McMahon was the Rockies' second-round pick in 2013, 42nd overall, and outside of a weird year in 2016 in which he played for their itinerant Double-A club, he has shown the ability to hit for average and power every year. Even without the boost from Coors Field, he could easily hit .280 with 20-plus homers and good defense at first, maybe coming in a little low in on-base percentage.
2. Lewis Brinson, OF, Miami Marlins: The headliner in the Christian Yelich trade now walks right into a starting job, and if nothing else, he should produce power and provide plus defense in center right away. He'll strike out a lot, probably 180 times in a full season, but if he plays every day -- he's had trouble staying healthy in pro ball -- there are 25 homers in here and five to 10 runs saved above average with his glove, too.
3. Colin Moran, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole to Houston for four players, with two of them, Moran and right-hander Joe Musgrove, expected to go right into regular roles with the major league team. He's maybe a little below average on defense at third, but he has excellent bat-to-ball skills with more power than he was originally expected to provide. He doesn't walk or strike out much, but a .290/.330/.480 kind of line seems well within reason if he plays all the time, maybe better if they sit him against tough lefties.
4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: Freddy Galvis is gone, traded for a low-end pitching prospect, which opens the door for Crawford to take over as the full-time shortstop from the start of this season. That’s on the heels of a September debut that saw Crawford show off some great defensive chops at a new position (third base) and draw more pitches per plate appearance than even wunderkind Rhys Hoskins. Crawford's glove is ready, and he'll work those deep counts just as he has through most of his minor league career. How much more he provides the Phillies this year depends on his showing the same kind of effort and intensity that he did after the 2017 All-Star break, when he crushed Triple-A pitching after a poor start and earned that promotion to Philly.
5. Willie Calhoun, LF, Texas Rangers: He’s the most likely Opening Day left fielder for the Rangers, acquired in the Yu Darvish trade last August and facing no serious competition for the everyday job. The diminutive Calhoun has hit everywhere he has played and shown above-average power, but he has no real position, with left field essentially a place to stash him and hope he hits enough to overcome what he gives back on defense. He's a dark horse for Rookie of the Year because his offensive stats should rank near the top among AL rookies this season and defensive prowess is typically undervalued in voting.
6. Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals: Robles does not have a firm grip on a major league job just yet, but he has a couple of factors working in his favor. One is that incumbent center fielder Michael Taylor is fighting an oblique injury. Another is that Adam Eaton still hasn't returned to action since last year's ACL tear. The third is that Robles is ridiculously talented, with the range and instincts to play plus defense in center field right now. Nationals manager Davey Martinez said Robles needs to play every day wherever he starts the season. With just three weeks to go until Opening Day, it's looking increasingly likely that it will be in D.C.
7. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Flaherty still has to win a job out of spring training, but his competition includes the oft-injured Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha as well as import Miles Mikolas, who gave up 10 runs in his first 4 2/3 IP this spring and looked bad doing so. I don't know how ready Flaherty is for regular turns in a major league rotation; he has great command for his age, thanks to a beautiful, easy-to-repeat delivery, but he struggled with hard contact in his cup of coffee in September. He might spend all or most of the season in St. Louis but will have to make adjustments as he goes, so even league-average performance would be a great outcome.
8. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves: Acuna is the top prospect in baseball, and the only real reason he isn't atop this list is the probability that he'll spend the first month or so in Triple-A to delay his free agency by a year. He has only 111 games above A-ball, so it's not outrageous to send him down for a few more weeks, but there's neither scouting nor statistical evidence to argue that he needs such development -- and he'll almost certainly outproduce incumbent right fielder Nick Markakis this year.
9. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the other day that 140-150 innings was a good "target" for Buehler this year, his second full season after Tommy John surgery, and it sounds like Buehler might start the year in extended spring training to manage his workload and increase the odds that he'll be ready and effective in October. Buehler is a starter who will show three above-average pitches and has a little experience pitching out of the bullpen as well, so I expect to see him do a little of both for the Dodgers and be productive in either role.
10. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Winker appears to not have a set job in Cincinnati yet, though manager Bryan Price told the Athletic last month that he believes Winker is "major league ready." And he is, by any possible measure. He also gives the Reds something their outfield sorely lacks -- on-base skills. Cincinnati's three returning outfielders posted OBPs of .307, .301 and .299 last year; Winker posted a .375 OBP in 47 games in the majors, and he has never been below .379 in any full pro season. The Reds also lost their second-best on-base threat, Zack Cozart, to free agency and can probably expect at least a little OBP regression from Eugenio Suarez (third on the team at .367) and Scooter Gennett (fifth at .342). This is a long way of saying that Winker isn't just ready to contribute and maybe get some Rookie of the Year votes, but also that the Reds have every possible reason to play him regularly from Opening Day.
11. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves: Fried is a super-athletic, three-pitch lefty who was awful in Double-A last year while trying to pitch through a blister that inhibited his curveball, which has been plus in the past. When he's 100 percent, he'll top out at 96 mph or so, and both the curve and changeup can be swing-and-miss pitches. He probably isn't in the Opening Day rotation, at least not right now, but he is probably the first option if someone gets hurt or underperforms.
12. Jake Bauers, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays: It seems unlikely that the Rays will bring Bauers an hour north on Opening Day. But they also don't have a true incumbent at first base (or DH, which is where C.J. Cron should probably play, anyway), which gives Bauers a chance to seize the job later in the year and possibly get 400 or so at-bats. Bauers hasn't shown much power through his time in the minors but has a simple swing that should produce plenty of contact, along with a patient approach that has resulted in a .369 OBP the past two years.
13. Luiz Gohara, LHP, Atlanta Braves: Gohara has a bigger arm than Fried but hasn't shown comparable command and control just yet and needs a better third pitch against right-handers. I would bet on more production from Fried this year than I would from Gohara, even though I ranked them the other way on the top 100 (which looks at the long term). He has kept his walks down the past two seasons but without showing average command, and I'd like to see a better changeup (or splitter) from him. It also hasn't helped his case that he has missed the first two weeks of spring training due to a groin strain on top of previous concerns about his conditioning.
14. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Reyes was No. 3 on this list last year and then blew out his elbow within a few days of the article's posting. He's a little lower this year because he isn't likely to return until at least May 1, and even after that, he will probably get extra rest or skip a start here or there to manage his workload. He has shown a wipeout changeup, and a fastball clocked up to 100 mph in the past, and even with just fringe command, he should be a league-average starter now, with more upside in the future.
15. Tyler Wade, SS/2B, New York Yankees: The Yankees have three rookie infielders who could make an impact this year, but their likely playing time is the reverse of how I ranked them as long-term prospects. Wade seems like he has the inside track on the starting second-base job, while Miguel Andujar is fighting Brandon Drury for control of third base, and Gleyber Torres was always likely to start in Triple-A after July 2017 Tommy John surgery. I've said before that I think Wade could be a credible regular for someone at shortstop. He probably doesn't have the power to be an average regular at second, but he might do enough of everything else to at least bat ninth for the Yankees and fill the spot while Torres and Andujar continue developing.
The rest
Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Chris Flexen, RHP, New York Mets
Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
Victor Caratini, C/Utility, Chicago Cubs
Miguel Andujar, 3B, New York Yankees
A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Francisco Mejia, C/3B, Cleveland Indians
Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees
Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Chih-Wei Hu, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Clarke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Keith Law
ESPN INSIDER
When I published my rankings of the top 100 prospects in baseball, I was considering the long-term value of the players on the list and off of it. I was also considering how far away they were and the risk that they might not reach their ceilings and might fail to reach the majors at all.Potential impact in 2018 was just a small consideration. Although there’s clear value in being confident that Player X is going to produce for you this year, few teams will give up big, long-term upside for the certainty of a player in the short term. This list looks at only potential production in 2018, in light of what I think each player's likely playing time might be with two weeks left before teams set their Opening Day rosters. Many players I've written about here will probably start the year in the minors or on a bench, but they seem likely enough to get significant major league time in 2018 that I've ranked them accordingly.
I have written about the top 15 prospects for this year, and I have listed in a separate section at the end anyone else I think has a good shot to produce this year, in roughly descending order.
Editor's note: Players with experience in foreign major leagues like Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO, such as Shohei Ohtani, are ineligible for these rankings.
1. Ryan McMahon, 1B, Colorado Rockies: McMahon has a lot going for him beyond his athleticism and natural ability to hit -- notably, a full-time job and a friendly home park. McMahon was the Rockies' second-round pick in 2013, 42nd overall, and outside of a weird year in 2016 in which he played for their itinerant Double-A club, he has shown the ability to hit for average and power every year. Even without the boost from Coors Field, he could easily hit .280 with 20-plus homers and good defense at first, maybe coming in a little low in on-base percentage.
2. Lewis Brinson, OF, Miami Marlins: The headliner in the Christian Yelich trade now walks right into a starting job, and if nothing else, he should produce power and provide plus defense in center right away. He'll strike out a lot, probably 180 times in a full season, but if he plays every day -- he's had trouble staying healthy in pro ball -- there are 25 homers in here and five to 10 runs saved above average with his glove, too.
3. Colin Moran, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole to Houston for four players, with two of them, Moran and right-hander Joe Musgrove, expected to go right into regular roles with the major league team. He's maybe a little below average on defense at third, but he has excellent bat-to-ball skills with more power than he was originally expected to provide. He doesn't walk or strike out much, but a .290/.330/.480 kind of line seems well within reason if he plays all the time, maybe better if they sit him against tough lefties.
4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: Freddy Galvis is gone, traded for a low-end pitching prospect, which opens the door for Crawford to take over as the full-time shortstop from the start of this season. That’s on the heels of a September debut that saw Crawford show off some great defensive chops at a new position (third base) and draw more pitches per plate appearance than even wunderkind Rhys Hoskins. Crawford's glove is ready, and he'll work those deep counts just as he has through most of his minor league career. How much more he provides the Phillies this year depends on his showing the same kind of effort and intensity that he did after the 2017 All-Star break, when he crushed Triple-A pitching after a poor start and earned that promotion to Philly.
5. Willie Calhoun, LF, Texas Rangers: He’s the most likely Opening Day left fielder for the Rangers, acquired in the Yu Darvish trade last August and facing no serious competition for the everyday job. The diminutive Calhoun has hit everywhere he has played and shown above-average power, but he has no real position, with left field essentially a place to stash him and hope he hits enough to overcome what he gives back on defense. He's a dark horse for Rookie of the Year because his offensive stats should rank near the top among AL rookies this season and defensive prowess is typically undervalued in voting.
6. Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals: Robles does not have a firm grip on a major league job just yet, but he has a couple of factors working in his favor. One is that incumbent center fielder Michael Taylor is fighting an oblique injury. Another is that Adam Eaton still hasn't returned to action since last year's ACL tear. The third is that Robles is ridiculously talented, with the range and instincts to play plus defense in center field right now. Nationals manager Davey Martinez said Robles needs to play every day wherever he starts the season. With just three weeks to go until Opening Day, it's looking increasingly likely that it will be in D.C.
7. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Flaherty still has to win a job out of spring training, but his competition includes the oft-injured Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha as well as import Miles Mikolas, who gave up 10 runs in his first 4 2/3 IP this spring and looked bad doing so. I don't know how ready Flaherty is for regular turns in a major league rotation; he has great command for his age, thanks to a beautiful, easy-to-repeat delivery, but he struggled with hard contact in his cup of coffee in September. He might spend all or most of the season in St. Louis but will have to make adjustments as he goes, so even league-average performance would be a great outcome.
8. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves: Acuna is the top prospect in baseball, and the only real reason he isn't atop this list is the probability that he'll spend the first month or so in Triple-A to delay his free agency by a year. He has only 111 games above A-ball, so it's not outrageous to send him down for a few more weeks, but there's neither scouting nor statistical evidence to argue that he needs such development -- and he'll almost certainly outproduce incumbent right fielder Nick Markakis this year.
9. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the other day that 140-150 innings was a good "target" for Buehler this year, his second full season after Tommy John surgery, and it sounds like Buehler might start the year in extended spring training to manage his workload and increase the odds that he'll be ready and effective in October. Buehler is a starter who will show three above-average pitches and has a little experience pitching out of the bullpen as well, so I expect to see him do a little of both for the Dodgers and be productive in either role.
10. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Winker appears to not have a set job in Cincinnati yet, though manager Bryan Price told the Athletic last month that he believes Winker is "major league ready." And he is, by any possible measure. He also gives the Reds something their outfield sorely lacks -- on-base skills. Cincinnati's three returning outfielders posted OBPs of .307, .301 and .299 last year; Winker posted a .375 OBP in 47 games in the majors, and he has never been below .379 in any full pro season. The Reds also lost their second-best on-base threat, Zack Cozart, to free agency and can probably expect at least a little OBP regression from Eugenio Suarez (third on the team at .367) and Scooter Gennett (fifth at .342). This is a long way of saying that Winker isn't just ready to contribute and maybe get some Rookie of the Year votes, but also that the Reds have every possible reason to play him regularly from Opening Day.
11. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves: Fried is a super-athletic, three-pitch lefty who was awful in Double-A last year while trying to pitch through a blister that inhibited his curveball, which has been plus in the past. When he's 100 percent, he'll top out at 96 mph or so, and both the curve and changeup can be swing-and-miss pitches. He probably isn't in the Opening Day rotation, at least not right now, but he is probably the first option if someone gets hurt or underperforms.
12. Jake Bauers, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays: It seems unlikely that the Rays will bring Bauers an hour north on Opening Day. But they also don't have a true incumbent at first base (or DH, which is where C.J. Cron should probably play, anyway), which gives Bauers a chance to seize the job later in the year and possibly get 400 or so at-bats. Bauers hasn't shown much power through his time in the minors but has a simple swing that should produce plenty of contact, along with a patient approach that has resulted in a .369 OBP the past two years.
13. Luiz Gohara, LHP, Atlanta Braves: Gohara has a bigger arm than Fried but hasn't shown comparable command and control just yet and needs a better third pitch against right-handers. I would bet on more production from Fried this year than I would from Gohara, even though I ranked them the other way on the top 100 (which looks at the long term). He has kept his walks down the past two seasons but without showing average command, and I'd like to see a better changeup (or splitter) from him. It also hasn't helped his case that he has missed the first two weeks of spring training due to a groin strain on top of previous concerns about his conditioning.
14. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: Reyes was No. 3 on this list last year and then blew out his elbow within a few days of the article's posting. He's a little lower this year because he isn't likely to return until at least May 1, and even after that, he will probably get extra rest or skip a start here or there to manage his workload. He has shown a wipeout changeup, and a fastball clocked up to 100 mph in the past, and even with just fringe command, he should be a league-average starter now, with more upside in the future.
15. Tyler Wade, SS/2B, New York Yankees: The Yankees have three rookie infielders who could make an impact this year, but their likely playing time is the reverse of how I ranked them as long-term prospects. Wade seems like he has the inside track on the starting second-base job, while Miguel Andujar is fighting Brandon Drury for control of third base, and Gleyber Torres was always likely to start in Triple-A after July 2017 Tommy John surgery. I've said before that I think Wade could be a credible regular for someone at shortstop. He probably doesn't have the power to be an average regular at second, but he might do enough of everything else to at least bat ninth for the Yankees and fill the spot while Torres and Andujar continue developing.
The rest
Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Chris Flexen, RHP, New York Mets
Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
Victor Caratini, C/Utility, Chicago Cubs
Miguel Andujar, 3B, New York Yankees
A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Francisco Mejia, C/3B, Cleveland Indians
Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees
Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Chih-Wei Hu, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Clarke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles
