- John Gasaway
- Seth Walder
Giant Killers is back for our 13th annual metrics-based forecast of big upsets in the NCAA tournament. As usual, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the first round. (Quick reminder. A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)
Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game, based on both the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have most often led to tournament upsets in the past. As always, we've sorted our picks into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. (Those titles should be self-explanatory.)
Got that? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here are the upsets in the making:
South Region
Best bets
No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Upset chance: 46.5 percent
Let's not mince words, because this game represents the best Giant Killers upset chance in either the South or East Regions. Porter Moser has a defense that can more than hold its own against a whole host of major-conference opponents, up to and including Miami. Donte Ingram, Cameron Krutwig and company force misses on both sides of the arc and take care of business on the defensive glass. Most of all, they do all of the above without fouling.
Then again, even a strong Ramblers D figures to be tested by potential 2018 lottery pick Lonnie Walker IV, Ja'Quan Newton and Chris Lykes. Losing Bruce Brown for the season to a foot injury hasn't had much impact on a Hurricanes offense that is both consistent and effective, particularly inside the arc.
Speaking of inside the arc, that's where Miami is most vulnerable defensively. Jim Larranaga's team allowed ACC opponents to make 54 percent or more of their 2s. If Krutwig, Clayton Custer and Marques Townes can get to the rim against the Canes, Loyola could record its first NCAA tournament win since 1985.
No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Davidson Wildcats
Upset chance: 31.7 percent
John Calipari will likely say very flattering and utterly accurate things about his team's upcoming opponent this week, and then he might state that he's somewhat concerned about how his young team will respond. Well, such sentiments would not be mere coachspeak.
Davidson is indeed led by something called a "senior" (Peyton Aldridge), and Bob McKillop's team did just knock off a ranked opponent (Rhode Island) on a neutral floor. At 6-foot-8, Aldridge is equally adept at scoring at a high volume from either side of the arc, and, as a team, newly decelerated Davidson is outstanding at generating a high number of shot attempts (thanks chiefly to a ridiculously low turnover rate).
So, yes, Kentucky's outstanding statistical perimeter defense is about to be tested. UK held SEC opponents to just 28 percent shooting on their 3s during conference play, and Davidson, of course, loves to launch shots from beyond the arc. The Wildcats will need to drain some of those makes, because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his teammates are now slicing through opposing defenses like a buzz saw.
Not completely crazy
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No 13 Buffalo Bulls
Upset chance: 11.6 percent
CJ Massinburg and Nick Perkins just make shots for Buffalo head coach Nate Oats, and that's exactly what they'll need to do against Arizona. The good news for fans pulling for an upset is that this Wildcats defense is the most permissive unit Sean Miller has had in years. You wouldn't think a defense anchored by 7-foot-1 generational phenomenon Deandre Ayton and fellow 7-footer Dusan Ristic would allow many scoring chances, but Arizona actually allowed the Pac-12 to convert a surprisingly normal 48 percent of its 2-point tries.
So, sure, maybe there's a chance. Then again, the bad news for fans pulling for an upset is that Arizona has this fiendishly complex offensive scheme called "throw the ball near the rim and let Ayton dunk it." It is highly effective in major-conference competition, and it is likely it could be even more so against a Bulls rotation that often has no one taller than 6-8 on the floor. This is an outstanding Arizona offense, and Buffalo will need to do everything in its power to keep this one close.
No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 14 Wright State Raiders
Upset chance: 10.6 percent
This isn't often the case in 3 vs. 14 contests, but the lower seed is going to have the largest person on the court in this game. Listed at 6-foot-9 and 275 pounds, Loudon Love will present a formidable challenge for the Tennessee defense. The Wright State freshman is Scott Nagy's featured scorer, and he gets that job done exclusively inside the arc. Love is also one of the country's better all-around rebounders. He will be heard from, even against a No. 3 seed.
Still, that No. 3 seed has a good deal of depth and scoring to throw at the Raiders. Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has no fewer than five players shooting better than 38 percent on their 3s for the season (Lamonte Turner, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bowden, James Daniel III and Jordan Bone). Then there's Grant Williams, and he's pretty good at what he does, too. Even a player who looms as large as Love is going to face a big challenge against the Vols.
