Best 2018 NCAA tournament title value bets
Andrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook posted odds to win the NCAA national championship on Sunday night after the field of 68 was announced. The Villanova Wildcats are the current betting favorite at 4-1, followed by the Duke Blue Devils (5-1), Michigan State Spartans (6-1) and Virginia Cavaliers (6-1).
I don't see much value with Duke and Michigan State because they're about evenly rated and likely to face off in the Sweet 16. However, the toughest opponent that Virginia would face in the South Region in terms of future odds is the Arizona Wildcats at 15-1, and I would personally have priced them closer to 25-1.
I'm also not interested in Villanova at 4-1. The Wildcats are built to win this tournament, but I'm just not getting much return, especially with teams like the Virginia Tech Hokies, Wichita State Shockers and Purdue Boilermakers looming in the East Region. In a one-game scenario, any of those teams can trade baskets with them. I'm also not a fan of Kansas, but its draw (Duke or Michigan State will obviously lose), location (Wichita and Omaha) and odds (15-1) are favorable.
Here is a look at some of the best value bets to win the NCAA tournament, followed by my ranking of value for all 19 teams with 60-1-or-better title odds.
Note: All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Mon. March 12.
Wichita State Shockers (40-1)
Wichita State at 40-1 is the most attractive bet on the table. It's tough not to have a difficult path as a 4-seed, but the Shockers have the exact profile -- offense, defense, rebounding, coaching and experience -- of teams that have historically fared well in the tournament. To get 40-1 with a team that can legitimately beat anyone in the tournament is both rare and worth a wager.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-1)
The West Region doesn't feature an elite team. Gonzaga is 30-1 and projects to be favored or a pick 'em in every game until the Final Four. I also like that the Zags are the only West Coast team among their fellow West Region contenders.
Virginia Cavaliers (6-1)
While 6-1 doesn't scream value, I see Virginia's path as the most favorable of the top seeds. There isn't a matchup in the South Region that I wouldn't favor the Cavs by at least 4.5 points (Virginia's closest-lined game in the region projects to be -4.5 vs. Cincinnati, should the two teams meet). The other three betting favorites are on the opposite side of the bracket, meaning Virgina would draw the weaker West Region winner in the Final Four.
I don't think Virginia is as invincible as it looked during the regular season, but I think the Cavs have arguably the easiest route to the championship.
Below I've listed the betting value (best to worst) of the 19 teams priced at 60-1 or better to win the national championship.
Ranking Value For Teams With 60-1 Odds Or Better
RANK, TEAM ODDS TO WIN NATIONAL TITLE
1. Wichita State Shockers 40-1
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs 30-1
3. Virginia Cavaliers 6-1
4. Kansas Jayhawks 15-1
5. Purdue Boilermakers 12-1
6. Cincinnati Bearcats 15-1
7. Xavier Musketeers 20-1
8. North Carolina Tar Heels 15-1
9. Tennessee Volunteers 60-1
10. West Virginia Mountaineers 40-1
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders 50-1
12. Villanova Wildcats 4-1
13. Auburn Tigers 60-1
14. Michigan State Spartans 6-1
15. Florida Gators 60-1
16. Kentucky Wildcats 30-1
17. Arizona Wildcats 15-1
18. Duke Blue Devils 5-1
19. Michigan Wolverines 10-1
Andrew Lange
ESPN INSIDER
The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook posted odds to win the NCAA national championship on Sunday night after the field of 68 was announced. The Villanova Wildcats are the current betting favorite at 4-1, followed by the Duke Blue Devils (5-1), Michigan State Spartans (6-1) and Virginia Cavaliers (6-1).
I don't see much value with Duke and Michigan State because they're about evenly rated and likely to face off in the Sweet 16. However, the toughest opponent that Virginia would face in the South Region in terms of future odds is the Arizona Wildcats at 15-1, and I would personally have priced them closer to 25-1.
I'm also not interested in Villanova at 4-1. The Wildcats are built to win this tournament, but I'm just not getting much return, especially with teams like the Virginia Tech Hokies, Wichita State Shockers and Purdue Boilermakers looming in the East Region. In a one-game scenario, any of those teams can trade baskets with them. I'm also not a fan of Kansas, but its draw (Duke or Michigan State will obviously lose), location (Wichita and Omaha) and odds (15-1) are favorable.
Here is a look at some of the best value bets to win the NCAA tournament, followed by my ranking of value for all 19 teams with 60-1-or-better title odds.
Note: All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Mon. March 12.
Wichita State Shockers (40-1)
Wichita State at 40-1 is the most attractive bet on the table. It's tough not to have a difficult path as a 4-seed, but the Shockers have the exact profile -- offense, defense, rebounding, coaching and experience -- of teams that have historically fared well in the tournament. To get 40-1 with a team that can legitimately beat anyone in the tournament is both rare and worth a wager.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-1)
The West Region doesn't feature an elite team. Gonzaga is 30-1 and projects to be favored or a pick 'em in every game until the Final Four. I also like that the Zags are the only West Coast team among their fellow West Region contenders.
Virginia Cavaliers (6-1)
While 6-1 doesn't scream value, I see Virginia's path as the most favorable of the top seeds. There isn't a matchup in the South Region that I wouldn't favor the Cavs by at least 4.5 points (Virginia's closest-lined game in the region projects to be -4.5 vs. Cincinnati, should the two teams meet). The other three betting favorites are on the opposite side of the bracket, meaning Virgina would draw the weaker West Region winner in the Final Four.
I don't think Virginia is as invincible as it looked during the regular season, but I think the Cavs have arguably the easiest route to the championship.
Below I've listed the betting value (best to worst) of the 19 teams priced at 60-1 or better to win the national championship.
Ranking Value For Teams With 60-1 Odds Or Better
RANK, TEAM ODDS TO WIN NATIONAL TITLE
1. Wichita State Shockers 40-1
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs 30-1
3. Virginia Cavaliers 6-1
4. Kansas Jayhawks 15-1
5. Purdue Boilermakers 12-1
6. Cincinnati Bearcats 15-1
7. Xavier Musketeers 20-1
8. North Carolina Tar Heels 15-1
9. Tennessee Volunteers 60-1
10. West Virginia Mountaineers 40-1
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders 50-1
12. Villanova Wildcats 4-1
13. Auburn Tigers 60-1
14. Michigan State Spartans 6-1
15. Florida Gators 60-1
16. Kentucky Wildcats 30-1
17. Arizona Wildcats 15-1
18. Duke Blue Devils 5-1
19. Michigan Wolverines 10-1
