Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets
John Gasaway & Seth Walder
ESPN INSIDER
Let's say, for the sake of discussion, you haven't been following the per-possession intricacies of the Missouri Valley Conference or the Summit League all season, but you still want to win your bracket. Giant Killers has you covered.
One proven method for putting distance between you and your competitors in the bracket pool is correctly picking a small but ultimately crucial number of upsets. Here are the 10 most likely such games in the first round, according to GK methodology.
As always at Giant Killers, we're looking exclusively at games in which an underdog defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher. Choose wisely (i.e., don't go with all 10 of these), and watch your bracket ranking soar to new heights. Good luck!
No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Upset chance: 46.5 percent
As a result of significantly better shooting ability from the field, the Ramblers are the value pick of the tournament. They have nearly a coin flip's chance over the Hurricanes, but, because they are a No. 11 seed and don't have the same name recognition, almost certainly will be advancing in fewer Tournament Challenge brackets than that.
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils
Upset chance: 40.8 percent
Now that the Sun Devils are in the field by a whisker, could they actually, you know, make some noise? Danny Hurley's team is perfectly capable of upsetting a No. 6 seed (first ASU has to take care of Syracuse in Dayton). The Horned Frogs' defense is only so-so, and if Tra Holder and Shannon Evans II hit some shots early, look out.
No. 6 Houston Cougars vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs
Upset chance: 38.0 percent
The Aztecs' offense came alive the last two games of the Mountain West tournament, and a new high-scoring version of Brian Dutcher's team figures to be a tough out. Trey Kell and Jalen McDaniels will give a very good Houston defense a surprisingly tough test. The Cougars better be ready, but make no mistake: This would be a huge win for SDSU over an excellent Houston team.
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange
Upset chance: 36.1 percent
Jamie Dixon had the best offense in the league during Big 12 play, but even the Horned Frogs will face a daunting task in the form of the Syracuse defense, assuming the Orange make it that far. Playing against a zone isn't necessarily an insurmountable challenge, but Paschal Chukwu and Marek Dolezaj give this particular zone some really good size.
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 UCLA Bruins
Upset chance: 35.8 percent
It's like the Chip Kelly sweepstakes all over again! And just like Kelly's football teams, these Bruins are all offense. Their shooting is what gives them a decent chance to beat the much-more-battle-tested Gators.
No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 12 Murray State Racers
Upset chance: 32.2 percent
You know Bob Huggins is going to bring the heat, and that could be a problem for Murray State, which dropped from a 93rd percentile offense overall (without opponent adjustments) to a 65th percentile offense against the press, per Synergy Sports. But if they can beat the pressure, the Racers can knock down shots from downtown.
No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Davidson Wildcats
Upset chance: 31.7 percent
Kentucky finds itself on this list because John Calipari's squad is more reputation than results at this point. Some will cling to the memory of 2014 and push Kentucky through without thinking, but our model says Davidson doesn't need a Steph Curry to bounce this blue blood in the opening round.
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Upset chance: 25.2 percent
This is certainly one of the best star vs. star matchups of the first round: Keita Bates-Diop vs. Mike Daum. They're both high-efficiency featured scorers with good size who also take care of the dirty work on the defensive glass for their teams. This is the Jackrabbits' third consecutive trip to the tournament, but this team is arguably the best of the three.
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars
Upset chance: 13.8 percent
Auburn loves a fast pace, but the Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in D-I. So this game will happen at Earl Grant's preferred speed, and, more importantly, Charleston has prolific scorers of its own in Grant Riller and Joe Chealey. If Bruce Pearl's Tigers are going to have a chance to do their run-and-shoot-3s thing in this tournament, they'll have to take care of the Cougars first.
John Gasaway & Seth Walder
ESPN INSIDER
Let's say, for the sake of discussion, you haven't been following the per-possession intricacies of the Missouri Valley Conference or the Summit League all season, but you still want to win your bracket. Giant Killers has you covered.
One proven method for putting distance between you and your competitors in the bracket pool is correctly picking a small but ultimately crucial number of upsets. Here are the 10 most likely such games in the first round, according to GK methodology.
As always at Giant Killers, we're looking exclusively at games in which an underdog defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher. Choose wisely (i.e., don't go with all 10 of these), and watch your bracket ranking soar to new heights. Good luck!
No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Upset chance: 46.5 percent
As a result of significantly better shooting ability from the field, the Ramblers are the value pick of the tournament. They have nearly a coin flip's chance over the Hurricanes, but, because they are a No. 11 seed and don't have the same name recognition, almost certainly will be advancing in fewer Tournament Challenge brackets than that.
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils
Upset chance: 40.8 percent
Now that the Sun Devils are in the field by a whisker, could they actually, you know, make some noise? Danny Hurley's team is perfectly capable of upsetting a No. 6 seed (first ASU has to take care of Syracuse in Dayton). The Horned Frogs' defense is only so-so, and if Tra Holder and Shannon Evans II hit some shots early, look out.
No. 6 Houston Cougars vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs
Upset chance: 38.0 percent
The Aztecs' offense came alive the last two games of the Mountain West tournament, and a new high-scoring version of Brian Dutcher's team figures to be a tough out. Trey Kell and Jalen McDaniels will give a very good Houston defense a surprisingly tough test. The Cougars better be ready, but make no mistake: This would be a huge win for SDSU over an excellent Houston team.
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange
Upset chance: 36.1 percent
Jamie Dixon had the best offense in the league during Big 12 play, but even the Horned Frogs will face a daunting task in the form of the Syracuse defense, assuming the Orange make it that far. Playing against a zone isn't necessarily an insurmountable challenge, but Paschal Chukwu and Marek Dolezaj give this particular zone some really good size.
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 UCLA Bruins
Upset chance: 35.8 percent
It's like the Chip Kelly sweepstakes all over again! And just like Kelly's football teams, these Bruins are all offense. Their shooting is what gives them a decent chance to beat the much-more-battle-tested Gators.
No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 12 Murray State Racers
Upset chance: 32.2 percent
You know Bob Huggins is going to bring the heat, and that could be a problem for Murray State, which dropped from a 93rd percentile offense overall (without opponent adjustments) to a 65th percentile offense against the press, per Synergy Sports. But if they can beat the pressure, the Racers can knock down shots from downtown.
No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Davidson Wildcats
Upset chance: 31.7 percent
Kentucky finds itself on this list because John Calipari's squad is more reputation than results at this point. Some will cling to the memory of 2014 and push Kentucky through without thinking, but our model says Davidson doesn't need a Steph Curry to bounce this blue blood in the opening round.
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Upset chance: 25.2 percent
This is certainly one of the best star vs. star matchups of the first round: Keita Bates-Diop vs. Mike Daum. They're both high-efficiency featured scorers with good size who also take care of the dirty work on the defensive glass for their teams. This is the Jackrabbits' third consecutive trip to the tournament, but this team is arguably the best of the three.
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars
Upset chance: 13.8 percent
Auburn loves a fast pace, but the Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in D-I. So this game will happen at Earl Grant's preferred speed, and, more importantly, Charleston has prolific scorers of its own in Grant Riller and Joe Chealey. If Bruce Pearl's Tigers are going to have a chance to do their run-and-shoot-3s thing in this tournament, they'll have to take care of the Cougars first.
