Umbc

Serbone · Mar 18, 2018

Can anybody explain how they beat the spread by 42 points against the # 1 seed?
What do they have?
It could not be that VA was just "flat" or looking ahead. No, not 42 goddam pts. VA is a solid all around team, with a top notch D in a top conference.
I can't help but think that UMBC is much better than we think.
How much better?
They beat the spread by 42, not a last minute upset at the buzzer. They DOMINATED VA.
This is not football where a few freak turnovers cost one team a few TD's, 14, 21 points, so the blowout is not truly indicative of yards gained and yards given up.
SO IMO shouldn't we look at taking the 10 points against a 9 seed Kansas St team that beat the spread by 12 pts in it's last game?

alkimyst · Mar 18, 2018

UMBC shot the lights out, while UVA played their worst game in the last several years. It was the perfect storm.

I would tread lightly backing UMBC today. Kansas St defends very well, plays extremely efficiently on offense most times, and has decent guards that should be able to check Lyles, UMBC's best player. Its hard to shoot 60%+ two games in a row, but if they do it, I'll raise my glass to them. However, I don't think it will happen.

KSU -10 for me.

Serbone · Mar 18, 2018

alkimyst said:
UMBC shot the lights out, while UVA played their worst game in the last several years. It was the perfect storm.

I would tread lightly backing UMBC today. Kansas St defends very well, plays extremely efficiently on offense most times, and has decent guards that should be able to check Lyles, UMBC's best player. Its hard to shoot 60%+ two games in a row, but if they do it, I'll raise my glass to them. However, I don't think it will happen.

KSU -10 for me.

VA had plenty of chances in the early mid 2nd half to make a run but UMBC destroyed them. I just cannot look at a 42 point spread cover and not be attracted to 10 points against a lesser team. K St is solid, yes, but not in the same class as VA.

Again, if UMBC had squeaked by at the buzzer by 2, sure. But they blew VA out completely.

Will Dean Wade play today?

Serbone · Mar 19, 2018

Second round of NCAA, it really matters how much each team performed ATS in it's previous game vs it's opponent, as we determine conference strength.
Yesterday it went 5-1.
Butler (+19), Cuse (22), Clemson (12), UMBC (30), Fla St (14), and Marshall (19)... difference between their spread plus vs their opponents plus or minus.
Think.
Nobody on this board hardly ever even mentions much of anything like this, nor injuries like Wade and Mann nor the A&M situation with their players missing during the year with suspensions, injuries, etc.
This is just a picking contest with no back up, "58-55 YTD". Helps no one.
GL!

danmcc · Mar 19, 2018

Good call in UMBC, I followed you on this one. Fun game to watch too, UMBC out hustled KS, but just couldn't get the ball to drop.

tmader7 · Mar 19, 2018

I stopped after Thursday, could see the handwriting on the wall. But 1) I picked the wrong game to go to Friday night (UNC's easy win vs UMBC's ambush) and 2) I would have bet K.State would have beat the brakes off of UMBC. Saved myself a pocket full of cash, LOL. Bases right around the corner, we're Par-Ty-Laying!

~T~

Serbone · Mar 19, 2018

tmader7 said:
I stopped after Thursday, could see the handwriting on the wall. But 1) I picked the wrong game to go to Friday night (UNC's easy win vs UMBC's ambush) and 2) I would have bet K.State would have beat the brakes off of UMBC. Saved myself a pocket full of cash, LOL. Bases right around the corner, we're Par-Ty-Laying!

~T~

I honestly cannot understand how NC and VA got blown out. Beat, yes, but blown out to smithereens? DOMINATED?
I had NC, did not understand the A&M team losing players mid season and getting some back, the A&M big men treated the NC front line like sissies.
A&M looks like a good way to go + 3 against Michigan.