Best bets for Friday's Sweet 16 games
Andrew LangeSeth Walder
ESPN INSIDER
March Madness has been nothing but exciting thus far. With as many 11-seed teams remaining as 1-seeds, the Sweet 16 promises to be more of the same.
Our college basketball experts -- Andrew Lange and Seth Walder -- are here to help as you look at the matchups, giving their best bets for Thursday and Friday's Sweet 16 games.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 20.
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-5.5) vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers
Friday at 7:27 p.m. ET in Boston
Lange: Villanova has been the average bettor's dream with 24-12 ATS and O/U records. The Wildcats have netted more than one point per possession in all but two games this season and scored virtually at will (1.28 PPP) in tournament wins over Radford and Alabama.
But lost in all of the offensive production is a defense that has stepped up its game. Since losing to Creighton on Feb. 24, Villanova has allowed only 63.1 points per game over its past seven contests. This isn't an up-tempo team. Since the shot clock was lowered to 30 seconds, Villanova has played 10 NCAA tournament games. Its average pace during that span is a rather pedestrian 63.8 possessions per game, and only twice did the Wildcats produce more than 154 points. Both of those games combined for 50 percent 3-point shooting.
West Virginia is not a great offensive team. In fact, they grade out as below average in the half court. Their efficiency (1.19 PPP, 11th nationally) comes from generating steals and second-chance opportunities. There are few teams better built for handling the Mountaineers' pressure than Villanova. With Jalen Brunson running the show, the Wildcats commit just more than 10 turnovers per game, which ranks 13th nationally.
If WVU can't generate "garbage" points, scoring becomes difficult. On the flip side, West Virginia is also one of the few teams with the ability to keep Brunson in check, as Jevon Carter is arguably the best on-the-ball defender in the country. There's some wiggle room to play this one under the total.
Pick: Under 154.5 total points
Walder: Before the season, I asked Paul Sabin (the man behind the scenes running BPI) why he thought West Virginia, a perennial metrics darling, never lived up to its mathematical hype. He theorized that the Mountaineers' high-pressure style resulted in a lot of blowout wins against weaker teams but wouldn't translate against tougher competition at the same rate because the best teams in the nation are more adept at beating the press. Of course, we use opponent adjustments in everything we do, but Sabin was suggesting it is possible that skill against the press is on a different curve than normal team strength.
All of this is just a theory -- we haven't done a full look into it -- but it's nice to keep that in mind while siding with a model that doesn't consider that notion. BPI expects the Wildcats to win by 8.2 points.
By the way, Villanova is still available at 3-1 to win the title, and BPI would like that, too.
ATS pick: Villanova -5.5
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-11.5) vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange
Friday at 9:37 p.m. ET in Omaha, Nebraska
Lange: The box score of Syracuse-Michigan State is one for the ages. I don't think I've ever seen a team grab 29 offensive rebounds, finish plus-21 on the glass and lose. The Spartans might have dominated the boards, but they also took 66 shots from the field and managed only 53 points. Syracuse has taken "ugly" basketball to new heights, with all three tournament wins going under the total by a combined 70 points.
The question is can they continue to win with defense alone? In their three wins, the Orange shot 37.8 percent from the floor. I think Duke has some advantages with extra time to prepare and having faced Syracuse back on Feb. 24. The Blue Devils closed as -13.5 chalk and led by as many as 21 en route to a comfortable 60-44 win. It's worth noting that Duke's 0.93 points per possession was its lowest mark of the year, and it still won by 16.
Syracuse's run has been been impressive but has also defied all sorts of logic, most notably the win over Michigan State. If Sparty shoots 35 percent as opposed to 25 percent, they likely win by double digits. Give me the chalk in this one.
ATS pick: Duke -11.5
Walder: How will Duke quell the suddenly red-hot Orange? Maybe by handing them a taste of their own medicine. After the Syracuse zone stifled Michigan State, Duke will presumably throw its own zone at Syracuse's offense. Because Duke's defense has improved since the Blue Devils switched to primarily a zone scheme, it's reasonable to assume that BPI (which is judging the team on its defensive performance throughout the entire season) is slightly underrating that unit. All the more reason to side with Duke here, given that the model already thinks the Blue Devils will win by 13.3 points. After all, there's a reason Syracuse just barely got into the tournament.
ATS pick: Duke -11.5
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Walder: Take this pick with a grain of salt because BPI doesn't make an explicit adjustment for the loss of 7-foot-2 center Isaac Haas, who missed the Boilermakers' game against Butler (though he did try to warm up) and presumably will be out for the remainder of the tournament. Haas isn't the Boilermakers' only form of offense, but it was pretty clear against Butler that the lack of threat inside offensively did have an effect on the way the Bulldogs were able to guard the Boilermakers' backcourt.
So if the difference between the Vegas line and BPI was small, it might be tempting to ignore the "value." But it's not small. BPI predicts a 6.8-point win for Purdue, so even if the Indiana school is slightly overvalued, it is still the play here. The model considers Purdue to be the fourth-best Division I team, in a tier above a squad like Texas Tech.
ATS pick: Purdue -1.5
Andrew LangeSeth Walder
ESPN INSIDER
March Madness has been nothing but exciting thus far. With as many 11-seed teams remaining as 1-seeds, the Sweet 16 promises to be more of the same.
Our college basketball experts -- Andrew Lange and Seth Walder -- are here to help as you look at the matchups, giving their best bets for Thursday and Friday's Sweet 16 games.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 20.
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-5.5) vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers
Friday at 7:27 p.m. ET in Boston
Lange: Villanova has been the average bettor's dream with 24-12 ATS and O/U records. The Wildcats have netted more than one point per possession in all but two games this season and scored virtually at will (1.28 PPP) in tournament wins over Radford and Alabama.
But lost in all of the offensive production is a defense that has stepped up its game. Since losing to Creighton on Feb. 24, Villanova has allowed only 63.1 points per game over its past seven contests. This isn't an up-tempo team. Since the shot clock was lowered to 30 seconds, Villanova has played 10 NCAA tournament games. Its average pace during that span is a rather pedestrian 63.8 possessions per game, and only twice did the Wildcats produce more than 154 points. Both of those games combined for 50 percent 3-point shooting.
West Virginia is not a great offensive team. In fact, they grade out as below average in the half court. Their efficiency (1.19 PPP, 11th nationally) comes from generating steals and second-chance opportunities. There are few teams better built for handling the Mountaineers' pressure than Villanova. With Jalen Brunson running the show, the Wildcats commit just more than 10 turnovers per game, which ranks 13th nationally.
If WVU can't generate "garbage" points, scoring becomes difficult. On the flip side, West Virginia is also one of the few teams with the ability to keep Brunson in check, as Jevon Carter is arguably the best on-the-ball defender in the country. There's some wiggle room to play this one under the total.
Pick: Under 154.5 total points
Walder: Before the season, I asked Paul Sabin (the man behind the scenes running BPI) why he thought West Virginia, a perennial metrics darling, never lived up to its mathematical hype. He theorized that the Mountaineers' high-pressure style resulted in a lot of blowout wins against weaker teams but wouldn't translate against tougher competition at the same rate because the best teams in the nation are more adept at beating the press. Of course, we use opponent adjustments in everything we do, but Sabin was suggesting it is possible that skill against the press is on a different curve than normal team strength.
All of this is just a theory -- we haven't done a full look into it -- but it's nice to keep that in mind while siding with a model that doesn't consider that notion. BPI expects the Wildcats to win by 8.2 points.
By the way, Villanova is still available at 3-1 to win the title, and BPI would like that, too.
ATS pick: Villanova -5.5
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-11.5) vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange
Friday at 9:37 p.m. ET in Omaha, Nebraska
Lange: The box score of Syracuse-Michigan State is one for the ages. I don't think I've ever seen a team grab 29 offensive rebounds, finish plus-21 on the glass and lose. The Spartans might have dominated the boards, but they also took 66 shots from the field and managed only 53 points. Syracuse has taken "ugly" basketball to new heights, with all three tournament wins going under the total by a combined 70 points.
The question is can they continue to win with defense alone? In their three wins, the Orange shot 37.8 percent from the floor. I think Duke has some advantages with extra time to prepare and having faced Syracuse back on Feb. 24. The Blue Devils closed as -13.5 chalk and led by as many as 21 en route to a comfortable 60-44 win. It's worth noting that Duke's 0.93 points per possession was its lowest mark of the year, and it still won by 16.
Syracuse's run has been been impressive but has also defied all sorts of logic, most notably the win over Michigan State. If Sparty shoots 35 percent as opposed to 25 percent, they likely win by double digits. Give me the chalk in this one.
ATS pick: Duke -11.5
Walder: How will Duke quell the suddenly red-hot Orange? Maybe by handing them a taste of their own medicine. After the Syracuse zone stifled Michigan State, Duke will presumably throw its own zone at Syracuse's offense. Because Duke's defense has improved since the Blue Devils switched to primarily a zone scheme, it's reasonable to assume that BPI (which is judging the team on its defensive performance throughout the entire season) is slightly underrating that unit. All the more reason to side with Duke here, given that the model already thinks the Blue Devils will win by 13.3 points. After all, there's a reason Syracuse just barely got into the tournament.
ATS pick: Duke -11.5
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Walder: Take this pick with a grain of salt because BPI doesn't make an explicit adjustment for the loss of 7-foot-2 center Isaac Haas, who missed the Boilermakers' game against Butler (though he did try to warm up) and presumably will be out for the remainder of the tournament. Haas isn't the Boilermakers' only form of offense, but it was pretty clear against Butler that the lack of threat inside offensively did have an effect on the way the Bulldogs were able to guard the Boilermakers' backcourt.
So if the difference between the Vegas line and BPI was small, it might be tempting to ignore the "value." But it's not small. BPI predicts a 6.8-point win for Purdue, so even if the Indiana school is slightly overvalued, it is still the play here. The model considers Purdue to be the fourth-best Division I team, in a tier above a squad like Texas Tech.
ATS pick: Purdue -1.5
