Best bets for Saturday's Elite Eight games

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hacheman@therx.com
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Best bets for Saturday's Elite Eight games
Andrew Lange
ESPN INSDER

The Elite Eight slate for Saturday features an 11-seed, a pair of 9 seeds and a surprising Michigan team that almost hit triple digits on Thursday night against Texas A&M.

The back-to-back games on Saturday will bring plenty of excitement, as all involved rally toward a trip to San Antonio for the Final Four. But how should bettors approach the contests? Here's a look at how to bet each game.

If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.

Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 23. All game times are listed in ET.



No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (-1) vs. No. 11 Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers
6:09 p.m. in Atlanta

Power ratings show Kansas State to be a slight favorite, but adjustment needs to be made for forward Dean Wade (16.2 points per game) still not being much of a factor (just eight minutes vs. Kentucky). With his minutes limited, the Wildcats aren't overly big or long, which would potentially give the Ramblers problems.


There's big adjustment with the total (126.5) after Loyola vs. Nevada closed as high as 144, and the Kansas State-Kentucky game sat at 138.5 before late money drove it down to 136.5. The betting markets have a tendency to bet the over on games in the 120s, regardless of the matchup. I don't think this one reaches 130, but I recommend trying to grab the "peak" number and play under the total. Both teams have combined to go under in 64 percent of their games this season. There's a reason -- they defend and take their time on the offensive end.

Lean: Under 126.5 total points



No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-4.5) vs. No. 9 Florida State Seminoles
8:49 p.m. in Los Angeles

Michigan shot less than 40 percent from the floor during its first two games of the tournament. Against Texas A&M, the Wolverines finished just shy of 62 percent and fell a point shy of the century mark. Those three performances are what makes Michigan so dangerous, possessing the ability to win with both offense and defense.

Florida State's strength is depth. Ten players played 10 minutes or more in Thursday's win over Gonzaga. The Seminoles outscored their three tournament opponents by a combined 30 points over the final 10 minutes of the game.

I'm most intrigued by the total (currently 143.5) with both teams on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of tempo. Florida State likes to speed up its opponents and score in transition. Michigan is happy running intricate half-court sets that chew up clock. I'm tossing out the box score of their win over Texas A&M, as shots fell early and a margin was created, quickly turning it into a glorified pickup game. It marked the first time a Michigan game topped 67 possessions since Jan. 13. While Florida State's season-long defensive numbers don't impress (13th in the ACC in defensive efficiency), the Seminoles have shown the ability to defend this postseason (0.88 points per possession allowed), thanks to their length and athleticism.

Lean under the total, but I will be more aggressive if I can find a better number in-game after a flurry of scoring.

Lean: Under 143.5 total points
 

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