[h=1]Best MLB season win total bets for 2018[/h]Derek Carty
ESPN INSIDER
Over the past couple of years, Major League Baseball teams have gotten smarter about how they rebuild, tearing things down entirely without any regard for staying "competitive." The sport has been moving toward a stratification in team quality, whereupon there are several truly amazing teams and several truly awful teams.
Those truly amazing teams are, of course, well-known, and so little edge exists in the betting market for them. When you look a step lower, though, there are a couple of teams pushing up much closer to this top tier than Vegas expects and offering plenty of edge as a result of this stratification.
In looking over where my projection system, THE BAT, differs from Vegas most, the biggest theme seems to be strength of schedule. When the Houston Astros moved to the American League in 2013, MLB changed the way it does interleague play, with divisions in each league squaring off. This season, there's one very strong division matched up with a one very weak division in particular, conveying a ton of value for nearly all teams involved.
Below, I go through season win totals for all 30 MLB teams and see where the value lies compared to my projections. There is a full table with all of my recommendations at the bottom of the piece.
Note: All season win totals courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 21.
[h=2]AL East[/h]
[h=3]New York Yankees[/h]Vegas season win total: 94.5
THE BAT projection: 97.4
Value: Moderate, over (+2.9 wins)
Should you want to place a bet on that top tier of elite teams, the Yankees are one of your strongest options. They played this offseason perfectly and have put together an offense that projects to break the single-season team home run record of 264 set by the Seattle Mariners in 1997.
Giancarlo Stanton is one of the three best hitters in baseball <offer></offer>and is the best power hitter, and he's moving from one of the worst parks in baseball for home runs to one of the best. Breaking Roger Maris' home run record is not out of the question. The Yankees also signed the underappreciated but very good Neil Walker, and with Greg Bird (the top rookie hitter in the game) fully healthy, this offense is going to do some major damage.
And don't shortchange the pitching staff, highlighted by an All-Star bullpen from top to bottom. Their fifth-best reliever, Tommy Kahnle, is better than many teams' top option, and I have starter Luis Severino projected for the exact same ERA (3.25) as Max Scherzer. Severino is the best Cy Young-caliber pitcher that people don't realize is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. The Yankees dynasty has returned, and while Vegas realizes it to an extent, there is a definite edge to be found, especially in the context of these known good teams.
[h=3]Boston Red Sox[/h]Vegas: 91.5
THE BAT: 93.4
Value: Low, over (+1.9 wins)
The entire AL East is projected for too few wins by Vegas, but the Red Sox have the least edge among them. The addition of J.D. Martinez finally (almost) fills the hole left by David Ortiz, Christian Vazquez and his good pitch-framing should see more starts, and Xander Bogaerts should be better after playing injured last year. Dustin Pedroia will start the year on the DL, though, and there are still lingering health concerns with David Price, without much in the way of depth if the Sox rotation has to deal with injuries. They're good, but the value is fairly minimal.
[h=3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h]Vegas: 80.5
THE BAT: 87.3
Value: Elite, over (+6.8 wins)
I can't quite figure out why the Blue Jays are so badly misjudged. The AL East will play the NL East in interleague play this year, which explains part of it. The NL East has four below-average offenses (including two dreadful ones) and three below-average pitching staffs, making the strength of schedule very favorable for teams like the Jays.
The Jays also had a sneaky good offseason. They didn't add that one big piece that would make people really take notice, like the Yankees did with Stanton, but they added a ton of valuable supporting pieces like Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz. Justin Smoak's breakout 2017 looks largely legitimate, and top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects very well and could make a splash after the All-Star break.
The pitching staff, while lacking a true stud, is loaded with quality options, and the defense behind it is in the top third of MLB. Despite pitching in a division chock full of hitters' parks, the top eight starters all project for a league average ERA or better, giving the Jays a borderline top-10 pitching staff to go along with an offense that is unquestionably also top 10. Hammer the over hard on the Jays.
[h=3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h]Vegas: 74.5
THE BAT: 78.0
Value: Moderate, over (+3.5 wins)
The Rays appear to be tanking as hard as they possibly can. They failed to re-sign any of their key free agents, traded away all of their best hitters in Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. (in some cases for next to nothing), dealt veteran starter Jake Odorizzi, dropped to the third-lowest payroll in baseball, lost top prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon to season-ending Tommy John surgery, and all but threw in the towel for the 2018 season. So naturally, I'm advising you to bet the over.
It sounds crazy, but do it. The Rays project for the third-fewest runs scored of any team in MLB, but they also project for a top 10 pitching staff and an elite defense. They still have a legitimate ace starter in Chris Archer and a slew of talented young ones like Blake Snell and Jacob Faria, plus a very good bullpen.
This Vegas win total feels like an overreaction to their fire sale this winter and the toughness of the AL East. Yes, they will lose a lot of games, but teams with top 10 pitching staffs don't lose 90 of them. The big risk here is that whether they continue to sell off parts, particularly Archer, which would make THE BAT's win projection too optimistic. This projection is assuming the current roster, and with the Rays, that's a big assumption to make. Still, with nearly five wins of wiggle room, this seems like a solid bet.
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles[/h]Vegas: 72.0
THE BAT: 77.6
Value: Elite, over (+5.6 wins)
Yes, the Orioles benefit from the cushy NL East interleague draw, but this over is also about how good their offense is. The Yankees project to beat the single-season team HR record, but the Orioles could very well beat it, as well. They're projecting just a couple of long balls shy. Manny Machado is their only true stud, but they have a bunch of above average hitters (all with lots of power) and will add a few solid complementary pieces in Colby Rasmus, Danny Valencia and prospect Austin Hays to the lineup this year. Caleb Joseph is an excellent pitch framer and will become the regular starter this season, helping a desperately hopeless pitching staff, albeit one that just got a lot better with the signing of Alex Cobb. This isn't a good team, thanks in large part to bad pitching, but it is a much better one than Vegas believes on the merits of the offense and the schedule. Hammer the over.
[h=2]AL Central[/h]
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h]Vegas: 94.5
THE BAT: 95.0
Value: Low, over (+0.5 wins)
Things are pretty much status quo for the Indians. They lost Carlos Santana, but replaced him with Yonder Alonso. They lost a couple solid relievers, but still have an elite bullpen. All of the other pieces remain in place, including one of the game's four elite starters in Corey Kluber and the game's best defensive unit. Betting the Indians has the least edge of any elite team and one of the least overall. They're great, but not the best, and both Vegas and THE BAT know it.
[h=3]Minnesota Twins[/h]Vegas: 83.5
THE BAT: 86.6
Value: Moderate, over (+3.1 wins)
The Indians are the clear best team in the AL Central, but the Twins are one of my favorite sneaky-good teams this year. Their pitching staff is fairly mediocre outside of a bullpen that will be good without many big names, but their offense will be a juggernaut. I have their runs scored projection sandwiched between the Indians and the Nationals, which are two much more obvious high-win clubs.
It helps that they have a great home park for offense, but it also helps that they have a lot of great hitters. Logan Morrison had a breakout 2017, despite playing in an extreme pitchers' park in Tampa Bay, by altering his launch angle to hit more hard fly balls. With the huge park upgrade, he'll give the Twins three truly great hitters along with Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier. This is an offense without a single hole, rivaling the more widely well-regarded ones, and so I see the Twins as a great over value proposition.
[h=3]Chicago White Sox[/h]Vegas: 72.0
THE BAT: 66.4
Value: Elite, under (-5.6 wins)
There's no way around it. The White Sox are bad. They traded away their only good starting pitcher (Jose Quintana) late last year. Carlos Rodon will begin the year on the DL. Michael Kopech will likely start the year in the minors. They still have Jose Abreu anchoring their offense, but their third-best hitter is a catcher, offseason acquisition Welington Castillo (who brings awful pitch-framing with him). Their fourth-best hitter, Eloy Jimenez, may spend most of the year in the minors.
This team is bad, and Vegas is being nice about it. There's plenty of young talent, and this team will be good in the future, but it's unlikely the window even begins to open in 2018. Hit the under hard.
[h=3]Kansas City Royals[/h]Vegas: 69.5
THE BAT: 70.6
Value: Low, over (+1.1 wins)
The Royals lost Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain this winter, but both are overrated hitters, and the team managed to bring back Mike Moustakas on the most absurdly team-friendly contract in recent history. They also added the single most underrated hitter in baseball, Lucas Duda (who is equal to Hosmer and better than Cain, by the way). Vegas has the Royals projected as the second-worst team in baseball. They're bad, but they're better than that, making this a decent over bet.
[h=3]Detroit Tigers[/h]Vegas: 66.0
THE BAT: 69.3
Value: Moderate, over (+3.3 wins)
Detroit is in full tear-it-down mode. Gone are Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler. They have one above-average pitcher (Michael Fulmer) and two above-average hitters (Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos), and while Cabrera still has plenty of underlying talent, he still deals with a chronic back injury that sapped his production for much of 2017. The lack of talent in Detroit is plain as day, though, and so there's really no edge here.
[h=2]AL West[/h]
[h=3]Houston Astros[/h]Vegas: 97.0
THE BAT: 98.2
Value: Low, over (+1.2 wins)
Even casual baseball fans know who the elite teams are, and as a result, the lines on these teams are quite sharp. There are a clear seven who are heavy favorites to make the playoffs, and the Astros are the cream of that crop. They project to score the most runs in baseball while allowing the second fewest. Yet as good as they are, Vegas still seems to be underrating them a little bit. The value here isn't enormous, but if you want to place a bet on a high-win team, taking the over on Houston is your best choice after the Yankees.
It's also worth noting that THE BAT is using a very conservative estimate of innings for Lance McCullers Jr. (139 IP) and Charlie Morton (128 IP) due to health concerns, ability to go deep into games and the depth of the Astros' rotation. Their skills are excellent, though, and with another 25 or 50 innings each, the Astros could easily wind up over 100 wins.
[h=3]Los Angeles Angels[/h]Vegas: 84.5
THE BAT: 87.5
Value: Moderate, over (+3.0 wins)
The Angels added a lot of good pieces around the best player in baseball this winter, including stalwart defender Zack Cozart, well-rounded Kinsler, slugger Justin Upton and prized Japanese prospect Shohei Ohtani. Plus, Garrett Richards finally may be healthy. Both he and Ohtani project to be top-20 pitchers in the most likely scenario, with the potential to be in the top five as Scherzer-level aces. Oh, and Ohtani will also be a league-average hitter, which will convey a massive advantage in interleague games if Mike Scioscia is smart enough to line him up to pitch in NL parks. The difference between a normal pitcher hitting and Ohtani hitting is the same as the difference between Mike Trout and Jeff Mathis. The Angels would essentially be adding a second, super-power Mike Trout to the lineup for several games. Particularly if they can leverage that advantage, I see this team as a solid over bet.
[h=3]Seattle Mariners[/h]Vegas: 81.5
THE BAT: 82.6
Value: Low, over (+1.1 wins)
The Mariners are as generically solid as they come. Offense, defense, pitching and catching are all a bit above average, but no better. Vegas and THE BAT are very much in agreement that this should lead to an above average season, but no better. There's nothing here that screams value. Pass.
[h=3]Oakland Athletics[/h]Vegas: 75.5
THE BAT: 77.0
Value: Low, over (+1.5 wins)
Oakland's offseason was about as quiet as they come. This is the same team we saw win 75 games last season, and Jonathan Lucroy, Stephen Piscotty, Trevor Cahill and promising pitching prospect A.J. Puk are in the mix now. Andrew Triggs will be back, and Sean Manaea almost has to be better, which moves the needle a bit above that 75 mark from last year. Forced to choose, I'd take the small over, but there's not a ton of value here.
[h=3]Texas Rangers[/h]Vegas: 75.0
THE BAT: 75.3
Value: Low, over (+0.3 wins)
"Subtraction by addition" is the best way to describe the Rangers' offseason, as they signed Mike Minor, Bartolo Colon, Matt Moore and Doug Fister to join their rotation. Cole Hamels has been on the decline for years and is now a below-average pitcher, as crazy as that sounds. Martin Perez is the "ace" of this staff. It should be apparent by now that it's the worst in baseball, and it won't be helped by a below average defense and the worst pitching framing in baseball. Vegas realizes how bad this team is, and there are better bets to make.
[h=2]NL East[/h]
[h=3]Washington Nationals[/h]Vegas: 94.0
THE BAT: 90.4
Value: Moderate, under (-3.6 wins)
The Yankees and Astros are solid if you want to bet the over on one of the 90-plus win teams, but the Nationals have the best value if you're okay with betting the under. While that's less sexy, you should absolutely want to take advantage. Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are elite, but the rotation behind them is quite mediocre. No other 90-plus win team lacks the rotation depth the Nats do, and their bullpen is the worst of the seven. Perhaps the biggest thing driving the discrepancy, though, is the overperformance by a number of Washington hitters last year. Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy and Michael A. Taylor all played well above their projected true talent levels, and factoring in regression for them drops the win projection to the bottom of the elite team barrel.
[h=3]New York Mets[/h]Vegas: 83.0
THE BAT: 83.0
Value: Low
The Mets are on the outside looking in for the second NL wild-card spot. They re-signed Jay Bruce, got a great deal on Todd Frazier and made some interesting low-risk signings of Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Vargas, but ultimately this is still a team with a lot of holes and a lot of injury concerns. They did finally make changes to their training staff, and if pitchers like Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey (not to mention star outfielder Michael Conforto) can be healthy and effective, they could go over by several wins. The playing time projections informing THE BAT are bullish in this regard. If we get another injury-plagued season, they'll go under by several. Weighing both possibilities, there's just no value in any bet. Stay away.
[h=3]Philadelphia Phillies[/h]Vegas: 78.5
THE BAT: 75.2
Value: Moderate, under (-3.3 wins)
The Phillies have been in rebuild mode, and they tried to open their window earlier than expected this offseason with the signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana. Arrieta is on the decline, though, and Santana is overrated. Neither changes the lack of MLB-ready talent on this roster. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are the lone exceptions, as both are legitimate stars. Maybe this team goes over if their younger players like Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams, J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery develop faster than players normally do, but the under is definitely the more likely scenario.
[h=3]Atlanta Braves[/h]Vegas: 75.5
THE BAT: 70.3
Value: Elite, under (-5.2 wins)
There are two divisions with hard-and-fast rules this year. Bet the over on the AL East, and bet the under on the NL East (sans the Mets). This makes sense, considering that they play each other in interleague play. The Braves offer the most value of the NL East teams, and some of the best overall. They may seem past their prime, but Matt Kemp and Matt Adams are still two of the most underrated hitters in the game, and the Braves let both of them go this winter. Vegas doesn't seem to be properly accounting for this.
That leaves them with Freddie Freeman and literally nobody else who projects as much more than a league average hitter. Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies are great prospects with big potential, but expecting big years out of them in 2018 would be foolish. Julio Teheran has declined so much that he's now the team's fourth best starter, and not because the other options are particularly good themselves. Love the under here.
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
[h=3]Miami Marlins[/h]Vegas: 63.5
THE BAT: 61.7
Value: Low, under (-1.8 wins)
It should come as no surprise that the Marlins are the worst team in the division. They cleaned house this winter, trading away Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon. Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto could go before the trade deadline. The rotation is a disaster. This is the worst team in baseball, and given that the strength of schedule is tougher than Vegas is accounting for, I suspect they'll finish a couple wins under the Westgate total.
[h=2]NL Central[/h]
[h=3]Chicago Cubs[/h]Vegas: 93.5
THE BAT: 92.1
Value: Low, under (-1.4 wins)
The Cubs lost Arrieta and two of their best relievers (Wade Davis and Hector Rondon) this winter, replacing them with Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek. Darvish is a small upgrade, but he's not quite as good as many believe, and the bullpen takes a significant hit. This is still a great team with lots of hitting and elite defense, but there's little betting edge here.
[h=3]St. Louis Cardinals[/h]Vegas: 86.0
THE BAT: 88.2
Value: Moderate, over (+2.2 wins)
This is a Cardinals team with a lot of uncertainty, but also a lot of upside. How much of the gains will 2017 breakouts like Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Jose Martinez and Paul DeJong sustain? How healthy is Matt Carpenter's shoulder, and will he be more productive by not trying to lift the ball as much this year (as he's stated he will do)? How will Miles Mikolas's excellent Japanese numbers translate to America? And what will the team do with Alex Reyes, who is recovering from surgery until May and would be the second-best starter if inserted into the rotation?
In order, THE BAT thinks 1) a good amount of the gains will be sustained, 2) Carpenter will be quite good this year, 3) Mikolas's production will translate to being a quality No. 3 starter, and 4) Reyes will split time between the rotation and bullpen, with the bulk coming out of the rotation.
These are a lot of question marks to place a truly confident bet, but on the whole, there appears to be a small amount of edge on the over. Unless you're trying to get as much action as possible, I may just look elsewhere.
[h=3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h]Vegas: 84.0
THE BAT: 79.5
Value: High, under (-4.5 wins)
The Brewers' Vegas line looks like an overreaction to their active winter. They signed Yelich and Cain, and were involved in rumors for every big-name pitcher on the market. They had to settle for Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo and Wade Miley, though, and own one of the bottom 10 rotations in the sport. Plus, as big of a name as Cain is, he's actually a worse hitter than both Domingo Santana and Eric Thames, who he will siphon at-bats from. Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar and Eric Sogard are all in for big regression after playing over their heads in 2017, and top catching option Stephen Vogt is already injured. This team has hopes of a wild-card spot, but this is a very clear under situation. Hit it hard, particularly with the chance the team trades off one of Ryan Braun, Santana or Thames.
[h=3]Cincinnati Reds[/h]Vegas: 74.5
THE BAT: 71.0
Value: Moderate, under (-3.5 wins)
Vegas sees a 68-win Reds team improving by 6.5 wins this season, and THE BAT thinks that's too extreme. Joey Votto is an elite hitter, but without him, this would be a downright bad offense. Luis Castillo had a strong 2017 season in the rotation, but his minor league numbers were bad enough that the best we can call him is above average right now (despite the stuff and upside to be much better), and he's the best starter they have by a wide margin. Not a single other is even average, and their traditionally awful bullpen is awful once again. Throw in one of the worst pitch framing contingents in the league (Tucker Barnhart, Devin Mesoraco and Stuart Turner are all bad) and the loss of elite defensive shortstop Zack Cozart, and this is a team that looks like a decent bet to go under.
[h=3]Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]Vegas: 73.5
THE BAT: 73.9
Value: Low, over (+0.4 wins)
The "Don't Bet Under Any Circumstances" Award goes to the Pirates this year. Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen are gone, replaced by Joe Musgrove and Corey Dickerson. It's a clear downgrade for Pittsburgh, but both are still good players in their own right. Vegas and THE BAT disagree on their final win total by less than half a win. This is a bad team, but not a truly awful one. Skip it.
[h=2]NL West[/h]
[h=3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]Vegas: 95.5
THE BAT: 96.5
Value: Low, over (+1.0 wins)
The Dodgers are the top team in the National League with elite talent on both sides of the ball, including the best pitching in all of baseball. They have no fewer than 10 starters who project for an above average ERA, plus an elite bullpen. Manager Dave Roberts understands the third-time-through-the-order penalty well and doesn't allow most of his starting pitchers to go deep into games, instead leveraging that bullpen to maximum effect. Their two catchers, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes, are two of the three best pitch framers in all of baseball, and they combine for nearly double the run-reducing impact of the next best team. Oh, and they also have one of the game's best fielding units.
Unfortunately, Vegas knows how good the Dodgers are, and so there isn't much value in their projection.
[h=3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]Vegas: 84.5
THE BAT: 80.2
Value: High, under (-4.3 wins)
The big news for the Diamondbacks this winter was the addition of a humidor, which will change the physical properties of the baseballs being used at Chase Field. They will get heavier, be less bouncy and have a lower exit velocity. When Coors Field added one in 2002, wOBA dropped by 5 percent, base hits by 7 percent and home runs by 22 percent. Because Arizona is more humid than Denver to begin with, physicist Dr. Alan Nathan estimates the home run drop will be nearly 35 percent. This would change Chase Field from the second-best hitters park in baseball to a solid or potentially extreme pitchers park.
This will affect both the Diamondbacks and their opponents, but seeing as how the Diamondbacks only have one flyball starting pitcher (Robbie Ray) and seven above average flyball hitters, THE BAT sees the humidor actually hurting the Diamondbacks relative to their opponents, despite playing with the same conditions. It's also yet to be seen if their recent strong home field advantage will remain given the new presence of the humidor. That unknown worries me slightly, but this looks like a strong under bet to me.
[h=3]San Francisco Giants[/h]Vegas: 83.0
THE BAT: 80.1
Value: Moderate, under (-2.9 wins)
The Giants made some moves this offseason to try and make one more run at the playoffs, adding the likes of Longoria and McCutchen, but that's just not going to happen. This team is getting older. They have the fifth-highest average age in baseball, and it's beginning to show. Buster Posey's pitch framing is falling off. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto had career-worst seasons. Offseason addition Austin Jackson, at age 31, will be one of their younger hitters getting even semi-regular at-bats and their fifth-best hitter, despite a below average projected wOBA. Their best asset is a top-10 bullpen, but a good bullpen needs to be a supplementary piece to a great foundation, and the Giants just don't have that. Decent under.
[h=3]Colorado Rockies[/h]Vegas: 81.5
THE BAT: 75.6
Value: Elite, under (-5.9 wins)
Despite calling Coors Field -- a park that is more than twice as good for offense as any other park in baseball -- home, the Rockies barely project in the top 10 for runs scored this season. The recent resigning of Carlos Gonzalez helps, but his health is hardly assured. Ultimately, this is an offense with two stars in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, and a lot of average (or worse) hitters who will see their batting lines propped up by the park.
The flip side of the park is the pitching, which project to allow the most runs in baseball. They have some intriguing young starters, but too many innings figure to go to truly bad ones like Chad Bettis, and this is not the environment to forgive such sins. The Rockies do seem to have a very unique home field advantage (likely due to their acclimation to the thin air in Colorado) that may not be fully quantified here, but I have a very hard time seeing them go over 80 wins.
[h=3]San Diego Padres[/h]Vegas: 72.0
THE BAT: 69.7
Value: Moderate, under (-2.3 wins)
The Padres made a splash this winter by signing Hosmer. Unfortunately for them, Hosmer is entirely overrated. He's a good hitter, but not a great one, projecting for just the 53rd-highest wOBA in MLB this year. As a result, he won't do nearly as much to move the needle as Vegas seems to expect. Paired with Wil Myers, the Padres now have a grand total of two above average hitters. Cracking 70 wins is tough to do under those circumstances. Take the under.
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ESPN INSIDER
Over the past couple of years, Major League Baseball teams have gotten smarter about how they rebuild, tearing things down entirely without any regard for staying "competitive." The sport has been moving toward a stratification in team quality, whereupon there are several truly amazing teams and several truly awful teams.
Those truly amazing teams are, of course, well-known, and so little edge exists in the betting market for them. When you look a step lower, though, there are a couple of teams pushing up much closer to this top tier than Vegas expects and offering plenty of edge as a result of this stratification.
In looking over where my projection system, THE BAT, differs from Vegas most, the biggest theme seems to be strength of schedule. When the Houston Astros moved to the American League in 2013, MLB changed the way it does interleague play, with divisions in each league squaring off. This season, there's one very strong division matched up with a one very weak division in particular, conveying a ton of value for nearly all teams involved.
Below, I go through season win totals for all 30 MLB teams and see where the value lies compared to my projections. There is a full table with all of my recommendations at the bottom of the piece.
Note: All season win totals courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 21.
[h=2]AL East[/h]
THE BAT projection: 97.4
Value: Moderate, over (+2.9 wins)
Should you want to place a bet on that top tier of elite teams, the Yankees are one of your strongest options. They played this offseason perfectly and have put together an offense that projects to break the single-season team home run record of 264 set by the Seattle Mariners in 1997.
Giancarlo Stanton is one of the three best hitters in baseball <offer></offer>and is the best power hitter, and he's moving from one of the worst parks in baseball for home runs to one of the best. Breaking Roger Maris' home run record is not out of the question. The Yankees also signed the underappreciated but very good Neil Walker, and with Greg Bird (the top rookie hitter in the game) fully healthy, this offense is going to do some major damage.
And don't shortchange the pitching staff, highlighted by an All-Star bullpen from top to bottom. Their fifth-best reliever, Tommy Kahnle, is better than many teams' top option, and I have starter Luis Severino projected for the exact same ERA (3.25) as Max Scherzer. Severino is the best Cy Young-caliber pitcher that people don't realize is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. The Yankees dynasty has returned, and while Vegas realizes it to an extent, there is a definite edge to be found, especially in the context of these known good teams.
THE BAT: 93.4
Value: Low, over (+1.9 wins)
The entire AL East is projected for too few wins by Vegas, but the Red Sox have the least edge among them. The addition of J.D. Martinez finally (almost) fills the hole left by David Ortiz, Christian Vazquez and his good pitch-framing should see more starts, and Xander Bogaerts should be better after playing injured last year. Dustin Pedroia will start the year on the DL, though, and there are still lingering health concerns with David Price, without much in the way of depth if the Sox rotation has to deal with injuries. They're good, but the value is fairly minimal.
THE BAT: 87.3
Value: Elite, over (+6.8 wins)
I can't quite figure out why the Blue Jays are so badly misjudged. The AL East will play the NL East in interleague play this year, which explains part of it. The NL East has four below-average offenses (including two dreadful ones) and three below-average pitching staffs, making the strength of schedule very favorable for teams like the Jays.
The Jays also had a sneaky good offseason. They didn't add that one big piece that would make people really take notice, like the Yankees did with Stanton, but they added a ton of valuable supporting pieces like Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz. Justin Smoak's breakout 2017 looks largely legitimate, and top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects very well and could make a splash after the All-Star break.
The pitching staff, while lacking a true stud, is loaded with quality options, and the defense behind it is in the top third of MLB. Despite pitching in a division chock full of hitters' parks, the top eight starters all project for a league average ERA or better, giving the Jays a borderline top-10 pitching staff to go along with an offense that is unquestionably also top 10. Hammer the over hard on the Jays.
THE BAT: 78.0
Value: Moderate, over (+3.5 wins)
The Rays appear to be tanking as hard as they possibly can. They failed to re-sign any of their key free agents, traded away all of their best hitters in Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. (in some cases for next to nothing), dealt veteran starter Jake Odorizzi, dropped to the third-lowest payroll in baseball, lost top prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon to season-ending Tommy John surgery, and all but threw in the towel for the 2018 season. So naturally, I'm advising you to bet the over.
It sounds crazy, but do it. The Rays project for the third-fewest runs scored of any team in MLB, but they also project for a top 10 pitching staff and an elite defense. They still have a legitimate ace starter in Chris Archer and a slew of talented young ones like Blake Snell and Jacob Faria, plus a very good bullpen.
This Vegas win total feels like an overreaction to their fire sale this winter and the toughness of the AL East. Yes, they will lose a lot of games, but teams with top 10 pitching staffs don't lose 90 of them. The big risk here is that whether they continue to sell off parts, particularly Archer, which would make THE BAT's win projection too optimistic. This projection is assuming the current roster, and with the Rays, that's a big assumption to make. Still, with nearly five wins of wiggle room, this seems like a solid bet.
THE BAT: 77.6
Value: Elite, over (+5.6 wins)
Yes, the Orioles benefit from the cushy NL East interleague draw, but this over is also about how good their offense is. The Yankees project to beat the single-season team HR record, but the Orioles could very well beat it, as well. They're projecting just a couple of long balls shy. Manny Machado is their only true stud, but they have a bunch of above average hitters (all with lots of power) and will add a few solid complementary pieces in Colby Rasmus, Danny Valencia and prospect Austin Hays to the lineup this year. Caleb Joseph is an excellent pitch framer and will become the regular starter this season, helping a desperately hopeless pitching staff, albeit one that just got a lot better with the signing of Alex Cobb. This isn't a good team, thanks in large part to bad pitching, but it is a much better one than Vegas believes on the merits of the offense and the schedule. Hammer the over.
[h=2]AL Central[/h]
THE BAT: 95.0
Value: Low, over (+0.5 wins)
Things are pretty much status quo for the Indians. They lost Carlos Santana, but replaced him with Yonder Alonso. They lost a couple solid relievers, but still have an elite bullpen. All of the other pieces remain in place, including one of the game's four elite starters in Corey Kluber and the game's best defensive unit. Betting the Indians has the least edge of any elite team and one of the least overall. They're great, but not the best, and both Vegas and THE BAT know it.
THE BAT: 86.6
Value: Moderate, over (+3.1 wins)
The Indians are the clear best team in the AL Central, but the Twins are one of my favorite sneaky-good teams this year. Their pitching staff is fairly mediocre outside of a bullpen that will be good without many big names, but their offense will be a juggernaut. I have their runs scored projection sandwiched between the Indians and the Nationals, which are two much more obvious high-win clubs.
It helps that they have a great home park for offense, but it also helps that they have a lot of great hitters. Logan Morrison had a breakout 2017, despite playing in an extreme pitchers' park in Tampa Bay, by altering his launch angle to hit more hard fly balls. With the huge park upgrade, he'll give the Twins three truly great hitters along with Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier. This is an offense without a single hole, rivaling the more widely well-regarded ones, and so I see the Twins as a great over value proposition.
THE BAT: 66.4
Value: Elite, under (-5.6 wins)
There's no way around it. The White Sox are bad. They traded away their only good starting pitcher (Jose Quintana) late last year. Carlos Rodon will begin the year on the DL. Michael Kopech will likely start the year in the minors. They still have Jose Abreu anchoring their offense, but their third-best hitter is a catcher, offseason acquisition Welington Castillo (who brings awful pitch-framing with him). Their fourth-best hitter, Eloy Jimenez, may spend most of the year in the minors.
This team is bad, and Vegas is being nice about it. There's plenty of young talent, and this team will be good in the future, but it's unlikely the window even begins to open in 2018. Hit the under hard.
THE BAT: 70.6
Value: Low, over (+1.1 wins)
The Royals lost Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain this winter, but both are overrated hitters, and the team managed to bring back Mike Moustakas on the most absurdly team-friendly contract in recent history. They also added the single most underrated hitter in baseball, Lucas Duda (who is equal to Hosmer and better than Cain, by the way). Vegas has the Royals projected as the second-worst team in baseball. They're bad, but they're better than that, making this a decent over bet.
THE BAT: 69.3
Value: Moderate, over (+3.3 wins)
Detroit is in full tear-it-down mode. Gone are Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler. They have one above-average pitcher (Michael Fulmer) and two above-average hitters (Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos), and while Cabrera still has plenty of underlying talent, he still deals with a chronic back injury that sapped his production for much of 2017. The lack of talent in Detroit is plain as day, though, and so there's really no edge here.
[h=2]AL West[/h]
THE BAT: 98.2
Value: Low, over (+1.2 wins)
Even casual baseball fans know who the elite teams are, and as a result, the lines on these teams are quite sharp. There are a clear seven who are heavy favorites to make the playoffs, and the Astros are the cream of that crop. They project to score the most runs in baseball while allowing the second fewest. Yet as good as they are, Vegas still seems to be underrating them a little bit. The value here isn't enormous, but if you want to place a bet on a high-win team, taking the over on Houston is your best choice after the Yankees.
It's also worth noting that THE BAT is using a very conservative estimate of innings for Lance McCullers Jr. (139 IP) and Charlie Morton (128 IP) due to health concerns, ability to go deep into games and the depth of the Astros' rotation. Their skills are excellent, though, and with another 25 or 50 innings each, the Astros could easily wind up over 100 wins.
THE BAT: 87.5
Value: Moderate, over (+3.0 wins)
The Angels added a lot of good pieces around the best player in baseball this winter, including stalwart defender Zack Cozart, well-rounded Kinsler, slugger Justin Upton and prized Japanese prospect Shohei Ohtani. Plus, Garrett Richards finally may be healthy. Both he and Ohtani project to be top-20 pitchers in the most likely scenario, with the potential to be in the top five as Scherzer-level aces. Oh, and Ohtani will also be a league-average hitter, which will convey a massive advantage in interleague games if Mike Scioscia is smart enough to line him up to pitch in NL parks. The difference between a normal pitcher hitting and Ohtani hitting is the same as the difference between Mike Trout and Jeff Mathis. The Angels would essentially be adding a second, super-power Mike Trout to the lineup for several games. Particularly if they can leverage that advantage, I see this team as a solid over bet.
THE BAT: 82.6
Value: Low, over (+1.1 wins)
The Mariners are as generically solid as they come. Offense, defense, pitching and catching are all a bit above average, but no better. Vegas and THE BAT are very much in agreement that this should lead to an above average season, but no better. There's nothing here that screams value. Pass.
THE BAT: 77.0
Value: Low, over (+1.5 wins)
Oakland's offseason was about as quiet as they come. This is the same team we saw win 75 games last season, and Jonathan Lucroy, Stephen Piscotty, Trevor Cahill and promising pitching prospect A.J. Puk are in the mix now. Andrew Triggs will be back, and Sean Manaea almost has to be better, which moves the needle a bit above that 75 mark from last year. Forced to choose, I'd take the small over, but there's not a ton of value here.
THE BAT: 75.3
Value: Low, over (+0.3 wins)
"Subtraction by addition" is the best way to describe the Rangers' offseason, as they signed Mike Minor, Bartolo Colon, Matt Moore and Doug Fister to join their rotation. Cole Hamels has been on the decline for years and is now a below-average pitcher, as crazy as that sounds. Martin Perez is the "ace" of this staff. It should be apparent by now that it's the worst in baseball, and it won't be helped by a below average defense and the worst pitching framing in baseball. Vegas realizes how bad this team is, and there are better bets to make.
[h=2]NL East[/h]
THE BAT: 90.4
Value: Moderate, under (-3.6 wins)
The Yankees and Astros are solid if you want to bet the over on one of the 90-plus win teams, but the Nationals have the best value if you're okay with betting the under. While that's less sexy, you should absolutely want to take advantage. Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are elite, but the rotation behind them is quite mediocre. No other 90-plus win team lacks the rotation depth the Nats do, and their bullpen is the worst of the seven. Perhaps the biggest thing driving the discrepancy, though, is the overperformance by a number of Washington hitters last year. Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy and Michael A. Taylor all played well above their projected true talent levels, and factoring in regression for them drops the win projection to the bottom of the elite team barrel.
THE BAT: 83.0
Value: Low
The Mets are on the outside looking in for the second NL wild-card spot. They re-signed Jay Bruce, got a great deal on Todd Frazier and made some interesting low-risk signings of Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Vargas, but ultimately this is still a team with a lot of holes and a lot of injury concerns. They did finally make changes to their training staff, and if pitchers like Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey (not to mention star outfielder Michael Conforto) can be healthy and effective, they could go over by several wins. The playing time projections informing THE BAT are bullish in this regard. If we get another injury-plagued season, they'll go under by several. Weighing both possibilities, there's just no value in any bet. Stay away.
THE BAT: 75.2
Value: Moderate, under (-3.3 wins)
The Phillies have been in rebuild mode, and they tried to open their window earlier than expected this offseason with the signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana. Arrieta is on the decline, though, and Santana is overrated. Neither changes the lack of MLB-ready talent on this roster. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are the lone exceptions, as both are legitimate stars. Maybe this team goes over if their younger players like Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams, J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery develop faster than players normally do, but the under is definitely the more likely scenario.
THE BAT: 70.3
Value: Elite, under (-5.2 wins)
There are two divisions with hard-and-fast rules this year. Bet the over on the AL East, and bet the under on the NL East (sans the Mets). This makes sense, considering that they play each other in interleague play. The Braves offer the most value of the NL East teams, and some of the best overall. They may seem past their prime, but Matt Kemp and Matt Adams are still two of the most underrated hitters in the game, and the Braves let both of them go this winter. Vegas doesn't seem to be properly accounting for this.
That leaves them with Freddie Freeman and literally nobody else who projects as much more than a league average hitter. Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies are great prospects with big potential, but expecting big years out of them in 2018 would be foolish. Julio Teheran has declined so much that he's now the team's fourth best starter, and not because the other options are particularly good themselves. Love the under here.
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
THE BAT: 61.7
Value: Low, under (-1.8 wins)
It should come as no surprise that the Marlins are the worst team in the division. They cleaned house this winter, trading away Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon. Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto could go before the trade deadline. The rotation is a disaster. This is the worst team in baseball, and given that the strength of schedule is tougher than Vegas is accounting for, I suspect they'll finish a couple wins under the Westgate total.
[h=2]NL Central[/h]
THE BAT: 92.1
Value: Low, under (-1.4 wins)
The Cubs lost Arrieta and two of their best relievers (Wade Davis and Hector Rondon) this winter, replacing them with Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek. Darvish is a small upgrade, but he's not quite as good as many believe, and the bullpen takes a significant hit. This is still a great team with lots of hitting and elite defense, but there's little betting edge here.
THE BAT: 88.2
Value: Moderate, over (+2.2 wins)
This is a Cardinals team with a lot of uncertainty, but also a lot of upside. How much of the gains will 2017 breakouts like Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Jose Martinez and Paul DeJong sustain? How healthy is Matt Carpenter's shoulder, and will he be more productive by not trying to lift the ball as much this year (as he's stated he will do)? How will Miles Mikolas's excellent Japanese numbers translate to America? And what will the team do with Alex Reyes, who is recovering from surgery until May and would be the second-best starter if inserted into the rotation?
In order, THE BAT thinks 1) a good amount of the gains will be sustained, 2) Carpenter will be quite good this year, 3) Mikolas's production will translate to being a quality No. 3 starter, and 4) Reyes will split time between the rotation and bullpen, with the bulk coming out of the rotation.
These are a lot of question marks to place a truly confident bet, but on the whole, there appears to be a small amount of edge on the over. Unless you're trying to get as much action as possible, I may just look elsewhere.
THE BAT: 79.5
Value: High, under (-4.5 wins)
The Brewers' Vegas line looks like an overreaction to their active winter. They signed Yelich and Cain, and were involved in rumors for every big-name pitcher on the market. They had to settle for Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo and Wade Miley, though, and own one of the bottom 10 rotations in the sport. Plus, as big of a name as Cain is, he's actually a worse hitter than both Domingo Santana and Eric Thames, who he will siphon at-bats from. Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar and Eric Sogard are all in for big regression after playing over their heads in 2017, and top catching option Stephen Vogt is already injured. This team has hopes of a wild-card spot, but this is a very clear under situation. Hit it hard, particularly with the chance the team trades off one of Ryan Braun, Santana or Thames.
THE BAT: 71.0
Value: Moderate, under (-3.5 wins)
Vegas sees a 68-win Reds team improving by 6.5 wins this season, and THE BAT thinks that's too extreme. Joey Votto is an elite hitter, but without him, this would be a downright bad offense. Luis Castillo had a strong 2017 season in the rotation, but his minor league numbers were bad enough that the best we can call him is above average right now (despite the stuff and upside to be much better), and he's the best starter they have by a wide margin. Not a single other is even average, and their traditionally awful bullpen is awful once again. Throw in one of the worst pitch framing contingents in the league (Tucker Barnhart, Devin Mesoraco and Stuart Turner are all bad) and the loss of elite defensive shortstop Zack Cozart, and this is a team that looks like a decent bet to go under.
THE BAT: 73.9
Value: Low, over (+0.4 wins)
The "Don't Bet Under Any Circumstances" Award goes to the Pirates this year. Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen are gone, replaced by Joe Musgrove and Corey Dickerson. It's a clear downgrade for Pittsburgh, but both are still good players in their own right. Vegas and THE BAT disagree on their final win total by less than half a win. This is a bad team, but not a truly awful one. Skip it.
[h=2]NL West[/h]
THE BAT: 96.5
Value: Low, over (+1.0 wins)
The Dodgers are the top team in the National League with elite talent on both sides of the ball, including the best pitching in all of baseball. They have no fewer than 10 starters who project for an above average ERA, plus an elite bullpen. Manager Dave Roberts understands the third-time-through-the-order penalty well and doesn't allow most of his starting pitchers to go deep into games, instead leveraging that bullpen to maximum effect. Their two catchers, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes, are two of the three best pitch framers in all of baseball, and they combine for nearly double the run-reducing impact of the next best team. Oh, and they also have one of the game's best fielding units.
Unfortunately, Vegas knows how good the Dodgers are, and so there isn't much value in their projection.
THE BAT: 80.2
Value: High, under (-4.3 wins)
The big news for the Diamondbacks this winter was the addition of a humidor, which will change the physical properties of the baseballs being used at Chase Field. They will get heavier, be less bouncy and have a lower exit velocity. When Coors Field added one in 2002, wOBA dropped by 5 percent, base hits by 7 percent and home runs by 22 percent. Because Arizona is more humid than Denver to begin with, physicist Dr. Alan Nathan estimates the home run drop will be nearly 35 percent. This would change Chase Field from the second-best hitters park in baseball to a solid or potentially extreme pitchers park.
This will affect both the Diamondbacks and their opponents, but seeing as how the Diamondbacks only have one flyball starting pitcher (Robbie Ray) and seven above average flyball hitters, THE BAT sees the humidor actually hurting the Diamondbacks relative to their opponents, despite playing with the same conditions. It's also yet to be seen if their recent strong home field advantage will remain given the new presence of the humidor. That unknown worries me slightly, but this looks like a strong under bet to me.
THE BAT: 80.1
Value: Moderate, under (-2.9 wins)
The Giants made some moves this offseason to try and make one more run at the playoffs, adding the likes of Longoria and McCutchen, but that's just not going to happen. This team is getting older. They have the fifth-highest average age in baseball, and it's beginning to show. Buster Posey's pitch framing is falling off. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto had career-worst seasons. Offseason addition Austin Jackson, at age 31, will be one of their younger hitters getting even semi-regular at-bats and their fifth-best hitter, despite a below average projected wOBA. Their best asset is a top-10 bullpen, but a good bullpen needs to be a supplementary piece to a great foundation, and the Giants just don't have that. Decent under.
THE BAT: 75.6
Value: Elite, under (-5.9 wins)
Despite calling Coors Field -- a park that is more than twice as good for offense as any other park in baseball -- home, the Rockies barely project in the top 10 for runs scored this season. The recent resigning of Carlos Gonzalez helps, but his health is hardly assured. Ultimately, this is an offense with two stars in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, and a lot of average (or worse) hitters who will see their batting lines propped up by the park.
The flip side of the park is the pitching, which project to allow the most runs in baseball. They have some intriguing young starters, but too many innings figure to go to truly bad ones like Chad Bettis, and this is not the environment to forgive such sins. The Rockies do seem to have a very unique home field advantage (likely due to their acclimation to the thin air in Colorado) that may not be fully quantified here, but I have a very hard time seeing them go over 80 wins.
THE BAT: 69.7
Value: Moderate, under (-2.3 wins)
The Padres made a splash this winter by signing Hosmer. Unfortunately for them, Hosmer is entirely overrated. He's a good hitter, but not a great one, projecting for just the 53rd-highest wOBA in MLB this year. As a result, he won't do nearly as much to move the needle as Vegas seems to expect. Paired with Wil Myers, the Padres now have a grand total of two above average hitters. Cracking 70 wins is tough to do under those circumstances. Take the under.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Best win total value bets[/h]
| Team | O/U | Bet | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 80.5 | Over | Elite (+6.8 wins) |
| Colorado Rockies | 81.5 | Under | Elite (-5.9 wins) |
| Baltimore Orioles | 72.0 | Over | Elite (+5.6 wins) |
| Chicago White Sox | 72.0 | Under | Elite (-5.6 wins) |
| Atlanta Braves | 75.5 | Under | Elite (-5.2 wins) |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84.0 | Under | High (-4.5 wins) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 84.5 | Under | High (-4.3 wins) |
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