DanMcC 3/27

danmcc · Mar 27, 2018

1st half Utes +1 and U65

W Kentucky plays a 2 ball more than 3 ball. Utah has a height advantage in the paint with 2 6'10" players. WK has a 6'7' and a part time player off bench at 6'9"

Where WK has put up 40ish in the first half in recent games, I'm thinking the height advantage and Utes willingness to play D will take it's toll. The Utes have been putting up high 20's first half. Combined I'm thinking 56-60 points 1st half

Additionally Utes have a higher 3 pt completion % and 2 pt %

Last, over the season the Utes have played better competition.

danmcc · Mar 27, 2018

Ok, start off with disclaimer, HOMER alert. I'm a huge Penn State fan. But I try to be objective in my betting.

1st Half, Penn St. -1

Statistically on KenPom these teams are neck and neck. Penn St has a better 3 pt % at 38.2 vs 31.7 and Penn St has a better turnover %

I like the 1st half here because Penn St is has a limited bench, made particularly more egregious with Mike Watkins out. However, I'll give Harrar his due, he's really improved through the BigTen tourney and NIT. Since the bench is weak they tend to stall a bit in the second half with tired legs.

Second, although it is a neutral court, Penn State has played in MSG 2x this year. Once in a tourney before BigTen schedule and again for the BigTen tourney. I'm giving them the edge here.