[h=1]Best World Series value bets for 2018[/h]Derek Carty
ESPN INSIDER
Analytics and intelligent decision-making are driving championship teams in Major League Baseball more than ever.<strike></strike>
<strike></strike>The Houston Astros embody this like no other, employing cutting-edge analytics in their front office while also engaging in the kind of smart macro-level decision making that we're seeing other teams adopt of late. A few years back, the Astros tore it all down and committed to losing badly for a few years in exchange for the chance of building it back up as a powerhouse. This, of course, culminated in a World Series title in 2017.
As more and more teams adopt this approach, we see a stratification in baseball. An elite crop of seven teams stand an excellent chance of making the playoffs and have a relatively even chance of winning once there. Then, there is a truly horrible crop of teams that have absolutely no chance of getting there. This makes betting the World Series champion a particularly tricky endeavor because the odds on the teams you really want to bet -- that elite crop -- don't tend to offer much edge.
As a result, the most edge this year seems to be found with some of the mid-tier teams that are hoping to launch themselves into the elite class (or at least snag a wild-card spot and embrace the variance of the postseason) and with a few bottom-of-the-barrel teams that have redeeming qualities.
Here's a look at the best value bets for the 2018 World Series champion.
Note: All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 28. Suggested bets are out of a total $100 amount.
[h=2]Toronto Blue Jays (40-1)[/h]I'm a big fan of AL East teams this year. My projection system, THE BAT, likes the over on all five teams' win totals, thanks to superior talent and strength of schedule. There isn't a team that THE BAT likes more in Vegas than the Blue Jays (a difference of nearly seven wins).
Toronto will have to get past the Los Angeles Angels (25-1) and Minnesota Twins (20-1) to win the AL's second wild-card spot (assuming either the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox claim the first), and then win that play-in game just to get on even ground with baseball's royalty, but the odds here are good enough to account for that risk. This is especially true given that THE BAT has the Angels and Twins projected for slightly fewer wins than the Jays, yet Toronto has more favorable World Series odds.
Suggested bet: $40 to win $1,600
[h=2]Washington Nationals (8-1)[/h]I would have much preferred the Yankees at 8-1 when the market opened, but since they've been bet up to 6-1, and the Nats have been bet down to 8-1, I'll take the odds on Washington.
The Nationals are my least favorite among baseball's seven elite teams, but there are a few things working in their favor when it comes to World Series odds. While they're worse than a team like Boston in a vacuum, the Red Sox will likely have to settle for a wild-card spot. Lose that game, and that's it.
As a result, there is a huge advantage to winning a division outright, and the Nats figure to have little competition in the NL East. With how much variance there is in even the multi-game playoff series, assuming it does take the division, Washington would have only a bit worse than 1-in-6 odds to win the World Series. The Nats' chances of winning the division are more than high enough to cover that gap, making them a solid choice among the top teams.
Suggested bet: $40 to win $320
[h=2]Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays (200-1)[/h]The Rays and Orioles opened at 30-1 and 60-1, respectively, and were both quickly bet down. Neither team is truly good, and the race for the second AL wild-card spot is intense.
Still, they have the same AL East strength-of-schedule advantage that the Jays have and are simply better teams than these odds indicate. The O's have a top-10 offense, and the Rays have a top-10 pitching staff. They have the same odds as teams like the Chicago White Sox and Atlanta Braves, but neither of those teams have anything remotely close to a top-10 anything. Both Baltimore and Tampa Bay project for between 5-10 more wins than the White Sox and the Braves, and with some good variance, they'd have an outside shot at this thing. They'd be longshots, but the odds are right.
THE BAT has the Rays projected for 0.4 more wins than the Orioles, but based on their moves this offseason, they seriously lack a commitment to winning and could wind up selling off more of their valuable pieces. The O's might be more likely to add pieces at the trade deadline if they are in contention, making them my better choice at these odds, but I like both clubs at this price.
Suggested bets: $10 on each team, with either bet winning $2,000
ESPN INSIDER
Analytics and intelligent decision-making are driving championship teams in Major League Baseball more than ever.<strike></strike>
<strike></strike>The Houston Astros embody this like no other, employing cutting-edge analytics in their front office while also engaging in the kind of smart macro-level decision making that we're seeing other teams adopt of late. A few years back, the Astros tore it all down and committed to losing badly for a few years in exchange for the chance of building it back up as a powerhouse. This, of course, culminated in a World Series title in 2017.
As more and more teams adopt this approach, we see a stratification in baseball. An elite crop of seven teams stand an excellent chance of making the playoffs and have a relatively even chance of winning once there. Then, there is a truly horrible crop of teams that have absolutely no chance of getting there. This makes betting the World Series champion a particularly tricky endeavor because the odds on the teams you really want to bet -- that elite crop -- don't tend to offer much edge.
As a result, the most edge this year seems to be found with some of the mid-tier teams that are hoping to launch themselves into the elite class (or at least snag a wild-card spot and embrace the variance of the postseason) and with a few bottom-of-the-barrel teams that have redeeming qualities.
Here's a look at the best value bets for the 2018 World Series champion.
Note: All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 28. Suggested bets are out of a total $100 amount.
[h=2]Toronto Blue Jays (40-1)[/h]I'm a big fan of AL East teams this year. My projection system, THE BAT, likes the over on all five teams' win totals, thanks to superior talent and strength of schedule. There isn't a team that THE BAT likes more in Vegas than the Blue Jays (a difference of nearly seven wins).
Toronto will have to get past the Los Angeles Angels (25-1) and Minnesota Twins (20-1) to win the AL's second wild-card spot (assuming either the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox claim the first), and then win that play-in game just to get on even ground with baseball's royalty, but the odds here are good enough to account for that risk. This is especially true given that THE BAT has the Angels and Twins projected for slightly fewer wins than the Jays, yet Toronto has more favorable World Series odds.
Suggested bet: $40 to win $1,600
The Nationals are my least favorite among baseball's seven elite teams, but there are a few things working in their favor when it comes to World Series odds. While they're worse than a team like Boston in a vacuum, the Red Sox will likely have to settle for a wild-card spot. Lose that game, and that's it.
As a result, there is a huge advantage to winning a division outright, and the Nats figure to have little competition in the NL East. With how much variance there is in even the multi-game playoff series, assuming it does take the division, Washington would have only a bit worse than 1-in-6 odds to win the World Series. The Nats' chances of winning the division are more than high enough to cover that gap, making them a solid choice among the top teams.
Suggested bet: $40 to win $320
[h=2]Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays (200-1)[/h]The Rays and Orioles opened at 30-1 and 60-1, respectively, and were both quickly bet down. Neither team is truly good, and the race for the second AL wild-card spot is intense.
Still, they have the same AL East strength-of-schedule advantage that the Jays have and are simply better teams than these odds indicate. The O's have a top-10 offense, and the Rays have a top-10 pitching staff. They have the same odds as teams like the Chicago White Sox and Atlanta Braves, but neither of those teams have anything remotely close to a top-10 anything. Both Baltimore and Tampa Bay project for between 5-10 more wins than the White Sox and the Braves, and with some good variance, they'd have an outside shot at this thing. They'd be longshots, but the odds are right.
THE BAT has the Rays projected for 0.4 more wins than the Orioles, but based on their moves this offseason, they seriously lack a commitment to winning and could wind up selling off more of their valuable pieces. The O's might be more likely to add pieces at the trade deadline if they are in contention, making them my better choice at these odds, but I like both clubs at this price.
Suggested bets: $10 on each team, with either bet winning $2,000
