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  1. #1 MisterMJ MLB Systems 
    RX Wizard Mistermj's Avatar
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    For this MLB season I will start by tracking "Select"April Dogs. (Yeah I know it's March...work with me ) "Select" means only dogs within a +128 to +180 window. The reason for this is it has been shown to me that this is the Dog sweet spot of best value.

    And the reason to pick Dogs in March and April is...nobody really knows anything yet. There should be some value in just picking the most optimal dog lines. Maybe...maybe not. Let's see what happens.

    I do not recommend that you just blindly bet these...let's track them and start learning something for our long term education. You and I.

    To keep it real...I will use that Wline place to document the system picks using their mostly realistic average lines. It takes me out of the equation...that is fair.

    3/29 Todays "Select" Dogs would be:

    HOU at TEX 03:35 PM
    TEX +158

    NYY at TOR 03:37 PM
    TOR +142

    BOS at TB 04:00 PM
    TB +145

    CLE at SEA 10:10 PM
    SEA +160


    Record 0-0-0
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  2. #2  
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    Yesterday's MLB Select Spring Dogs Tracking


    TEX +158 Loss
    TB +145 Win
    TOR +142 Loss
    SEA +160 Win
    2018 Record + 1.05 Units ($50 bettor = +$52.50)
    Systems + Discipline + Time = Free Money
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  3. #3  
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    Yesterday...Opening day of Major League Baseball was 2-2 + 1.05 Units or +$52 Bucks to a Fifty dollar bettor.
    More Dogs to track tonight...all night games...and they are posted below.

    Now remember I am not advising that you just blindly play these yet.

    I will have a much more proven system soon.

    We are just tracking these dogs because...well...I think it makes sense to do it and learn from it. Read yesterdays post for a little more information and explanation.

    Friday 3/30 Select Spring Dogs Tracking
    07:07 PM TOR +136

    07:10 PM TB +131

    08:05 PM TEX +172

    09:40 PM COL +130

    10:10 PM SF +148
    ======

    Yesterday's Results MLB Select Spring Dogs Tracking

    Thur 3/29
    TEX +158 Loss
    TB +145 Win
    TOR +142 Loss
    SEA +160 Win
    2018 Record + 1.05 Units ($50 bettor = +$52.50)
    Systems + Discipline + Time = Free Money
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  4. #4  
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    I just had a thought looking around the forums...some people and their $10,000 bets as if that proves anything.

    It's sort of like female singers...or male singers for that matter.

    If you CAN sing you just sing....if you can't...you have to show your titties or grab your crotch a lot. LOL.

    Just sayin...
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  5. #5  
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    Intrigued on how this will turn out MJ ... I’ve noticed over the years this is a good time to do such a thing. Thx for keeping track of this
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  6. #6  
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    He's exactly right about early season dogs. Great time to play them.
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ECC View Post
    Intrigued on how this will turn out MJ ... I’ve noticed over the years this is a good time to do such a thing. Thx for keeping track of this

    Thanks for your feedback ECC...I appreciate it.

    My thinking on this is for the first two weeks or so...just to play the optimal dog lines blindly without further thought scraping off whatever value they show. (if they indeed end up showing value)

    Logically the value would seem to come from the fact that nobody really knows what is what this season...so any dog may be underpriced as the public shades everything to past history and performance which may not really be the case in a new season. Some pitchers with a great past will fail...some hitters with history will decline or start in slumps type of thing. Teams with chemistry last season may lose it. Worst to first type situations that nobody ever sees coming.

    After a couple of weeks ...everyone will at least have some idea what may be happening...and lines will start to adjust....then I intend to lay a performance filter over the top and try to keep it going through the rest of April. Basically looking for value from what is actually happening now vs. the public still relying on old data and past history.

    Come May...this system will probably have run it's course so to speak.

    But I have other ideas for that...so I will try to keep things going here.
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  8. #8  
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    Biz...thanks for your comments.

    Now empty out your personal message bin so my thank you can come through by private message.
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  9. #9  
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    MLB 3/30 Results
    Friday Select Spring Dogs Tracking (Assumes $50 wagers for Tracking purpose)

    07:07 PM TOR +136



    07:10 PM TB +131


    08:05 PM TEX +172


    09:40 PM COL +130


    10:10 PM SF +148

    2-3-0 40.00% +$10.0

    Overall 4-5-0 44.44% (+$62.50 For a $50 Dollar bettor)

    P.S. Love it when those +170's come in !
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  10. #10  
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    MLB Saturday 3/31 Let's keep it real. +62 Bucks for a Fifty Dollar Bettor so far.

    Select Spring Dogs Tracking
    02:10 PM CIN +146

    08:10 PM COL +133

    09:10 PM SF +180

    Overall 4-5-0 44.44% (+$62.50 For a $50 bettor)
    Systems + Discipline + Time = Free Money
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  11. #11  
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    Yesterday's MLB Select Spring Dogs Results 03/31 1-2-0 (-$33.50) for a $50 bettor.

    Can't win them all...we won't win them all. This system (idea really) is attempting to grind out value from under priced Dogs during the first month of the season. It will have ups and downs...count on it...and we may not find value this season.

    The idea is that nobody really knows anything yet...until the teams play a little bit. So we are taking all of the "optimal dog lines"...those between +128 to +180 and tracking them.

    I like to keep it real...so for record keeping purposes we assume all wagers are $50 Bucks.

    For the rich bastards betting way too much...just add a zero if that makes you feel better. ;-)


    4/1 Sun.
    Select Spring Dogs

    01:10 PM NYM +131
    03:05 PM TEX +147
    08:37 PM SF +167

    Overall Record for 2018
    5-7-0 41.67% +$29.00 For a $50 bettor


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  12. #12  
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    Thanks and good luck today....
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  13. #13  
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    Thanks XS
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  14. #14  
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    Yesterday's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking Results 04/01/2018 0-3-0 0.00% (-$150) for a $50 bettor.

    4/2 Select Dog Tracking (Assuming $50 Wagers for tracking purpose)

    04:10 PM CIN +135


    07:07 PM CHW +145

    10:05 PM TEX +132

    Overall 5-10-0 33.33% -$121 For a $50 bettor
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  15. #15  
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    I can't wait to start layering a performance filter over these MLB Select Dogs and see what happens.

    In other words I want to further qualify them based on recent performance. Of course the question is...what recent performance should we use?

    I am very intrigued by a comment from legendary handicapper Jim Barnes in an about.com article I saved years ago and which I think no longer exists. Food for thought. Today's trackers are included below.

    Jim Barnes:
    baseball is "80-percent batting and 20-percent pitching." I knew the idea had merit from the beginning and a year before leaving the Stardust to return to his native state, sportsbook manager Walker said he was coming around to my point of view. There are only a handful of pitchers that can win when their team is not scoring and the other 95-percent have their records determined by whether the team scores or not.


    Hmmm....at the very least....interesting.


    Yesterday's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking Results 04/02/2018 1-2-0 33.33 %(-$32.50) for a $50 bettor.

    4/3 Select Dog Tracking Picks (Assuming $50 Wagers for tracking purpose)
    04:05 PM TB +135

    06:40 PM CIN +158

    07:07 PM CHW +172

    09:40 PM ARI +150


    Overall 6-12-0 33.33% -$153.50



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  16. #16  
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    A comment about the MLB trackers. Yeah...not so hot so far. It's kind of hard to tell yet with a small sample size this season.

    One day ...like maybe today who knows...they might all hit or have a 3-1 day and jump right back to plus money. That's the thing about playing dogs...you often have to play a bunch to squeeze out the value over time. Not many people are willing to do what it takes. There are no short cuts.

    This system by the way (MLB Select Dogs... if you want to call it that)... checks out pretty well looking at past history with a SDQL database. I will post that another day.. soon but this has proven to be a winning system...over time.

    Yesterday's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking Results 1-2-0 33.33% -$25 for a $50 bettor


    MLB Select Dog Tracking Picks
    4/4
    02:10 PM BAL +167

    04:07 PM LAA +132

    07:07 PM CHW +170

    10:05 PM TEX +142

    Overall 7-14-0 33.33% -$178.50 for a $50 bettor.
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  17. #17  
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    good luck today...
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  18. #18  
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    Yesterday's MLB Tracking Results 2-2-0 50.00% +$51 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

    That's more like it !

    Today's MLB Early Season Tracker Picks

    4/5
    01:05 PM NYM +140

    03:05 PM MIA +133

    03:35 PM TEX +128

    07:05 PM CIN +132

    Overall Record 9-16-0 36.00% -$127.50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor
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  19. #19  
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    Yesterday's MLB Results for Early Season Select Dog Trackers 2-2-0 50.00% +$34.00 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

    All Wagers are assumed to be $50 for tracking purposes.


    Friday 4/6 MLB Select Dog Trackers

    04:10 PM ATL +133

    07:05 PM BAL +159

    08:10 PM MIL +130

    10:15 PM SF +140

    Overall Record 11-18-0 37.93% -$93.50 for a $50 dollar bettor
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  20. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mistermj View Post
    Yesterday's MLB Results for Early Season Select Dog Trackers 2-2-0 50.00% +$34.00 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

    All Wagers are assumed to be $50 for tracking purposes.


    Friday 4/6 MLB Select Dog Trackers

    04:10 PM ATL +133

    07:05 PM BAL +159

    08:10 PM MIL +130

    10:15 PM SF +140

    Overall Record 11-18-0 37.93% -$93.50 for a $50 dollar bettor
    Great job MJ I knew those dogs would come around sooner or later!!
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  21. #21  
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    Dogs were barking last night ...3-0 +$211.00 for a $50 Bettor

    BAL +159 Win +$79.50
    ATL +133 Win +$66.50
    MIL +130 Win +$65.00
    SF PPD

    ANYONE can do this

    MLB Select Dog Trackers
    Overall Record 14-18-0 43.75% +$117.50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor



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  22. #22  
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    Today's MLB
    Sat 4/7
    Early Season Select Dog Tracking

    01:05 PM NYM +143

    01:05 PM TB +149

    02:10 PM SEA +141

    04:05 PM MIL +139

    06:05 PM MIA +145

    Overall Record 14-18-0 43.75% +$117.50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor
    Systems + Discipline + Time = Free Money
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  23. #23  
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  24. #24  
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    Be careful with your money management here (If) you have made a personal decision to play them.

    I would not take the risk of having your whole account riding on one day.

    It could be a wildly successful day or it could also be full of losers.


    Day to day there are many ups and downs playing underdogs.

    Ok...enough preaching for one day.


    Todays MLB Early Season Select Dogs

    4/8


    01:05 PM BAL +170


    01:35 PM MIA +168


    01:35 PM CIN +128


    02:10 PM DET +138


    02:15 PM ARI +137


    04:05 PM SF +180


    04:07 PM OAK +152


    08:08 PM NYM +147


    Overall 16-21-0 43.24% +$109.50 (For $50 bettor)
    Yesterday 2-3-0 40.00% -$8.00
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  25. #25  
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