[h=1]Best bets for the Final Four[/h]Andrew Lange & Seth Walker
ESPN INSIDER
We're finally here, the Final Four. Perhaps no one is shocked to see a pair of 1-seeds vying for a spot in the national championship game, as Kansas and Villanova will do on Saturday night, but the day's earlier contest comes as a big surprise. Loyola Chicago continues to be the tournament's Cinderella team, as it faces Michigan for a chance to play for the national title.
The back-to-back games will provide must-watch basketball, but how should bettors approach the contests? Here's a look at how to bet each game from our college basketball experts, Andrew Lange and Seth Walder.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 29. Both game times are listed in ET and will played at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
[h=2]No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-5.5) vs. No. 11 Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers[/h]6:09 p.m.
Lange: It will be interesting to see how each team fares shooting the basketball in such a spacious arena. Back in 2008, the Alamodome hosted the Final Four, and the three games combined to produce 27.6 percent 3-point shooting (27-of-98). No team hit more than six 3-pointers in a game.
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Michigan's offense is heavily predicated on floor spacing and outside shooting. Against Texas A&M, the Wolverines caught fire, hitting 15 3s and nearly eclipsing the century mark. But against Houston and Florida State, two games that came down to the final minute, Michigan shot a combined 12-of-52 for 23.1 percent.
Loyola is not only a better 3-point shooting team (40.2 percent this season), but the Ramblers aren't nearly as reliant (30-of-72 for 41.7 percent through four tournament games). The Ramblers have mid-major size, but have benefited from not facing a tournament opponent that can overwhelm them physically. For instance, I could see them having difficulty against Kansas' Udoka Azubuike or Duke's frontcourt duo of Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. Michigan isn't overly big or athletic, which should allow Loyola the ability to switch screens and avoid bad one-on-one matchups.
This one projects to be a low possession game with both teams likely to score in the 60's. I give the Wolverines the defensive edge, but if they struggle to knock down 3s, they'll be hard pressed to pull away. At some point, bettors might be able to get plus-6 on an underdog that will be tough to overwhelm.
Lean: Loyola +5.5
Walder: Sorry, Sister Jean. Your winning streak ends here, and your run against the spread does, too.
BPI has upgraded its rating for the Ramblers (it's up 0.7 points per game since the start of the tournament), but it also thinks more of the Wolverines and has upgraded their rating by almost as much. Though Loyola did get past a stout Tennessee defense, Michigan will present the biggest defensive challenge for the Ramblers the entire season.
All that being said, if there's an advantage for Michigan against the line here, it's minor. BPI thinks the Wolverines will win by 6.1 points, less than a point above the spread.
ATS pick: Michigan -5.5
[h=2]No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-5) vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks[/h]8:49 p.m.
Lange: I've played Villanova's past two tournament games under the total. Against West Virginia, a hot start coupled with late fouls and free throws resulted in 168 points, but against Texas Tech, the scoring (130 points) was far more in line with the pace (66 possessions). The Red Raiders aren't especially potent offensively and prefer a more controlled tempo. The question is what type of game will we see against Kansas?
The Jayhawks offer a different look -- a team that can score in bunches and wants to score in transition. Of the four remaining teams in the field, Kansas grades out as the weakest defensively. Still, even though Duke panicked and settled for far too many contested shots, it was overall one of Kansas' better defensive performances of the season. While Villanova's offense continues to grab headlines, its defense this postseason has stepped up (0.93 points per possession allowed over four tournament games).
I'm not sure that Kansas is going to be able to contain Villanova's offense for a full 40 minutes. Clemson and Seton Hall scored 49 and 53, respectively, in the second half against the Jayhawks. But as stated above, the venue isn't conducive for high-percentage shooting. With the inevitable early game "feeling out" period, as both teams adjust to each other and their surroundings, I see playing the first half total under a stronger play than the full game.
Pick: Under 72.5 first-half points
Walder: Even though Kansas beat Duke and is in the Final Four, I'll say what BPI has believed all along: It isn't really of No. 1-seed quality. Kansas was the seventh-most efficient team in D-I after including opponent adjustments, and not coincidentally, BPI believes it is the seventh-best team going forward. That's pretty far removed from the top-ranked Wildcats.
BPI doesn't overweigh recent performance in its predictions, but through the first four rounds, Villanova provided no reason to think it is anything but the best team in basketball. The Wildcats' shooting ability from anywhere on the court is an incessant threat to opponents, and almost every player that sees meaningful minutes is an asset from beyond the arc. BPI thinks the Wildcats ought to be favored by 6.3 points, rather than just the 5 that one has to lay in Vegas.
ATS pick: Villanova -5
ESPN INSIDER
We're finally here, the Final Four. Perhaps no one is shocked to see a pair of 1-seeds vying for a spot in the national championship game, as Kansas and Villanova will do on Saturday night, but the day's earlier contest comes as a big surprise. Loyola Chicago continues to be the tournament's Cinderella team, as it faces Michigan for a chance to play for the national title.
The back-to-back games will provide must-watch basketball, but how should bettors approach the contests? Here's a look at how to bet each game from our college basketball experts, Andrew Lange and Seth Walder.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 29. Both game times are listed in ET and will played at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
[h=2]No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-5.5) vs. No. 11 Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers[/h]6:09 p.m.
Lange: It will be interesting to see how each team fares shooting the basketball in such a spacious arena. Back in 2008, the Alamodome hosted the Final Four, and the three games combined to produce 27.6 percent 3-point shooting (27-of-98). No team hit more than six 3-pointers in a game.
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Michigan's offense is heavily predicated on floor spacing and outside shooting. Against Texas A&M, the Wolverines caught fire, hitting 15 3s and nearly eclipsing the century mark. But against Houston and Florida State, two games that came down to the final minute, Michigan shot a combined 12-of-52 for 23.1 percent.
Loyola is not only a better 3-point shooting team (40.2 percent this season), but the Ramblers aren't nearly as reliant (30-of-72 for 41.7 percent through four tournament games). The Ramblers have mid-major size, but have benefited from not facing a tournament opponent that can overwhelm them physically. For instance, I could see them having difficulty against Kansas' Udoka Azubuike or Duke's frontcourt duo of Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. Michigan isn't overly big or athletic, which should allow Loyola the ability to switch screens and avoid bad one-on-one matchups.
This one projects to be a low possession game with both teams likely to score in the 60's. I give the Wolverines the defensive edge, but if they struggle to knock down 3s, they'll be hard pressed to pull away. At some point, bettors might be able to get plus-6 on an underdog that will be tough to overwhelm.
Lean: Loyola +5.5
Walder: Sorry, Sister Jean. Your winning streak ends here, and your run against the spread does, too.
BPI has upgraded its rating for the Ramblers (it's up 0.7 points per game since the start of the tournament), but it also thinks more of the Wolverines and has upgraded their rating by almost as much. Though Loyola did get past a stout Tennessee defense, Michigan will present the biggest defensive challenge for the Ramblers the entire season.
All that being said, if there's an advantage for Michigan against the line here, it's minor. BPI thinks the Wolverines will win by 6.1 points, less than a point above the spread.
ATS pick: Michigan -5.5
[h=2]No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-5) vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks[/h]8:49 p.m.
Lange: I've played Villanova's past two tournament games under the total. Against West Virginia, a hot start coupled with late fouls and free throws resulted in 168 points, but against Texas Tech, the scoring (130 points) was far more in line with the pace (66 possessions). The Red Raiders aren't especially potent offensively and prefer a more controlled tempo. The question is what type of game will we see against Kansas?
The Jayhawks offer a different look -- a team that can score in bunches and wants to score in transition. Of the four remaining teams in the field, Kansas grades out as the weakest defensively. Still, even though Duke panicked and settled for far too many contested shots, it was overall one of Kansas' better defensive performances of the season. While Villanova's offense continues to grab headlines, its defense this postseason has stepped up (0.93 points per possession allowed over four tournament games).
I'm not sure that Kansas is going to be able to contain Villanova's offense for a full 40 minutes. Clemson and Seton Hall scored 49 and 53, respectively, in the second half against the Jayhawks. But as stated above, the venue isn't conducive for high-percentage shooting. With the inevitable early game "feeling out" period, as both teams adjust to each other and their surroundings, I see playing the first half total under a stronger play than the full game.
Pick: Under 72.5 first-half points
Walder: Even though Kansas beat Duke and is in the Final Four, I'll say what BPI has believed all along: It isn't really of No. 1-seed quality. Kansas was the seventh-most efficient team in D-I after including opponent adjustments, and not coincidentally, BPI believes it is the seventh-best team going forward. That's pretty far removed from the top-ranked Wildcats.
BPI doesn't overweigh recent performance in its predictions, but through the first four rounds, Villanova provided no reason to think it is anything but the best team in basketball. The Wildcats' shooting ability from anywhere on the court is an incessant threat to opponents, and almost every player that sees meaningful minutes is an asset from beyond the arc. BPI thinks the Wildcats ought to be favored by 6.3 points, rather than just the 5 that one has to lay in Vegas.
ATS pick: Villanova -5
