[h=1]Best bets for the Anthony Joshua-Joseph Parker fight[/h]Johnny Wilds
ESPN INSIDER
The WBA, WBO and IBF heavyweight titles will all be on the line this Saturday when British superstar Anthony 'AJ' Joshua (20-0, 20 KOs) takes on New Zealand's Joshua Parker (24-0, 18 KOs) live on Showtime Championship Boxing from Cardiff, Wales.
Joshua holds the WBA and IBF titles, and Parker is the WBO champion. This will be the first meeting of two undefeated world heavyweight titleholders since Mike Tyson faced Tony Tucker in 1987.
According to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Joshua is the -900 favorite, while Parker is fetching +600 odds.
Here's a look at where the money is going, along with opinions from boxing experts and trainers, as well as my prediction for the fight.
[h=2]Where is the money going?[/h]Jeff Sherman, the race and sportsbook manager at Westgate, opened the fight with Joshua -1000 and Parker +650, with the total at 8.5 rounds (under -180, over +150).
"So far, slightly more Parker support brought the line to its current price of -900/+600, and a bit of support on the under," said Sherman. He's also expecting Joshua to be included in parlays with the NCAA Final Four games on Saturday, so he is not expecting the line to dip much farther. Westgate has about a 2-1 ratio of tickets being written on Parker thus far.
At William Hill US, senior trader Adam Pullen opened the fight with Joshua -1000 and Parker +750, with the total sitting at 8.5 rounds (under -170).
"We have 8-1 tickets in favor of Parker, but 40-1 money in favor of Joshua. We took a large bet at -1300 on Joshua, but the price dropped with Parker money coming in," said Pullen.
CG Technologies' COO of analytics, Matthew Holt, opened the fight with Joshua -1100 and Parker +700.
"Despite the popularity of Anthony Joshua and the fact he's the most recognizable fighter in the world right now, we have liability with Parker. We have taken a lot of small bets on the 'dog and one play of $1,500 at +600," Holt said. "We did take one bet of $10,000 to win $1,000 on Joshua."
CG currently has the line at -900/+600. Holt mentioned they will certainly have liability on the underdog if they don't take a six-figure play on Joshua, much like previous heavily-favored fights where the public would rather bet the underdog than lay a big number on the favorite.
[h=2]Experts weigh in[/h]• Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "In the land of the heavyweights, KOs are usually expected, so I think I am going against the grain here. This fight will go the distance. Parker's chin is solid, and Joshua will be respectful of his speed and power, so we may see more of a tactical bout. Parker will give it everything, but I'm picking Joshua by close decision as the final outcome."
• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "This unified title fight has the possibility of being very interesting early, as I believe both men will go for the early KO. The fight will go 12 rounds, and in the end, Joshua will have his hand raised as the victor. Joshua by UD."
• Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards (boxing trainer): "Joshua outboxes him, disrupts his rhythm with his jab and stops him around the ninth round."
• Michael Marley (boxing sharp): "Both guys have limitations, but I'm among those who view AJ as the brightest young heavyweight extant. Put it like this: I'd give Parker a better chance against [Deontay] Wilder, though Wilder would stop him. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out Joshua wins with a convincing UD. The best is yet to come for Joshua."
• John 'Iceman' Scully (boxing trainer): "Joshua is on a tremendous upswing right now. Mentally, he is in a great place, and physically, he's an awesome specimen. He's only going to get better, and he's not going to be derailed here."
• Marcos Figueroa (boxing sharp): "Parker, in my opinion, is an average heavyweight. Joshua showed tremendous heart vs. Wladimir Klitschko and displayed some skill as well. I expect Joshua to come out and try to get Parker out of there quickly. Joshua, KO in Round 3."
• Evan Young (boxing sharp): "Joshua is a physical marvel who has passed a gut check with Klitschko, an invaluable experience. He trains like a challenger. He's an extremely hard worker who will be well prepared for this fight. Joshua's jab, size, control and power will carry the day. I see Joshua breaking Parker down and stopping him between Rounds 8-12."
• Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): "Quality rumble! Probably a little closer than the current market suggests, but I'm yet to see enough from Parker to see a win here. I see AJ winning a solid contest, with the fight falling just short of the distance. I'm having something on AJ in Rounds 10-12 +450."
• Joshua Stabile (boxing sharp): "Joshua is too big, too skilled, too fast and too powerful. Parker is a solid opponent, but the talent disparity is too large. It appears Joshua is taking this fight seriously, which is bad news for Parker. Joshua, KO in 7. The -900 price is too steep to consider any serious wagers."
• John Gatling (boxing sharp): "This is The AJ Show. There's no way he doesn't bounce Parker in Wales. The New Zealander is a great person and does possess some solid fundamentals, but he's too basic and predictable after three or four rounds for AJ's seriously underrated corner to not expose. Look for Joshua to start looking a little wilder in the middle rounds, before calmly turning Parker into the former WBO heavyweight champion in the ninth."
[h=2]Tale of the tape[/h]
Joshua: The 28-year-old fighting out of Watford, Hertfordshire in the United Kingdom is the only current world champion with a 100 percent knockout rate. He is seeking to become the third heavyweight champion from Great Britain to hold three world titles. All of his fights have been held in the United Kingdom thus far. Per CompuBox, Joshua lands 30 percent of jabs, the third-highest rate, and opponents land only 6.6 punches per round, which is the third fewest among tracked fighters. He is the No. 1-ranked heavyweight fighter by ESPN. With a win, Joshua will be inching closer to a mega showdown with WBC champion Deontay Wilder, who is coming off a sensational KO over highly-avoided Luis Ortiz.
Parker: The 26-year-old fighting out of South Auckland, New Zealand is the WBO champion. He is the first man from New Zealand to hold a major title. This will be the third defense of the title that he won over Andy Ruiz by majority decision in December 2016. His past two fights have been anything but sensational, as he went the distance vs. Răzvan Cojanu, then won a close, controversial and brutally boring majority decision against Hughie Fury last September. He lands only 9.8 punches a round, per CompuBox, and is the No. 3-ranked heavyweight fighter by ESPN.
[h=2]Betting the fight[/h]The panel above is tipping Joshua by a not-so-shocking 10-0 margin. I don't disagree and will make it a clean sweep with AJ winning. I don't like laying huge prices, but if you let the public bet the underdog, like they do in most fights with higher odds, the line should come down. Laying -500 or lower would be extreme value.
Pick: Joshua -500 or better
ESPN INSIDER
The WBA, WBO and IBF heavyweight titles will all be on the line this Saturday when British superstar Anthony 'AJ' Joshua (20-0, 20 KOs) takes on New Zealand's Joshua Parker (24-0, 18 KOs) live on Showtime Championship Boxing from Cardiff, Wales.
Joshua holds the WBA and IBF titles, and Parker is the WBO champion. This will be the first meeting of two undefeated world heavyweight titleholders since Mike Tyson faced Tony Tucker in 1987.
According to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Joshua is the -900 favorite, while Parker is fetching +600 odds.
Here's a look at where the money is going, along with opinions from boxing experts and trainers, as well as my prediction for the fight.
[h=2]Where is the money going?[/h]Jeff Sherman, the race and sportsbook manager at Westgate, opened the fight with Joshua -1000 and Parker +650, with the total at 8.5 rounds (under -180, over +150).
"So far, slightly more Parker support brought the line to its current price of -900/+600, and a bit of support on the under," said Sherman. He's also expecting Joshua to be included in parlays with the NCAA Final Four games on Saturday, so he is not expecting the line to dip much farther. Westgate has about a 2-1 ratio of tickets being written on Parker thus far.
| Opening Odds | Odds as of March 27 | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Joshua | -1000 | -900 |
| Joseph Parker | +650 | +600 |
| Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |
"We have 8-1 tickets in favor of Parker, but 40-1 money in favor of Joshua. We took a large bet at -1300 on Joshua, but the price dropped with Parker money coming in," said Pullen.
CG Technologies' COO of analytics, Matthew Holt, opened the fight with Joshua -1100 and Parker +700.
"Despite the popularity of Anthony Joshua and the fact he's the most recognizable fighter in the world right now, we have liability with Parker. We have taken a lot of small bets on the 'dog and one play of $1,500 at +600," Holt said. "We did take one bet of $10,000 to win $1,000 on Joshua."
CG currently has the line at -900/+600. Holt mentioned they will certainly have liability on the underdog if they don't take a six-figure play on Joshua, much like previous heavily-favored fights where the public would rather bet the underdog than lay a big number on the favorite.
[h=2]Experts weigh in[/h]• Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "In the land of the heavyweights, KOs are usually expected, so I think I am going against the grain here. This fight will go the distance. Parker's chin is solid, and Joshua will be respectful of his speed and power, so we may see more of a tactical bout. Parker will give it everything, but I'm picking Joshua by close decision as the final outcome."
• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "This unified title fight has the possibility of being very interesting early, as I believe both men will go for the early KO. The fight will go 12 rounds, and in the end, Joshua will have his hand raised as the victor. Joshua by UD."
• Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards (boxing trainer): "Joshua outboxes him, disrupts his rhythm with his jab and stops him around the ninth round."
• Michael Marley (boxing sharp): "Both guys have limitations, but I'm among those who view AJ as the brightest young heavyweight extant. Put it like this: I'd give Parker a better chance against [Deontay] Wilder, though Wilder would stop him. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out Joshua wins with a convincing UD. The best is yet to come for Joshua."
• John 'Iceman' Scully (boxing trainer): "Joshua is on a tremendous upswing right now. Mentally, he is in a great place, and physically, he's an awesome specimen. He's only going to get better, and he's not going to be derailed here."
• Marcos Figueroa (boxing sharp): "Parker, in my opinion, is an average heavyweight. Joshua showed tremendous heart vs. Wladimir Klitschko and displayed some skill as well. I expect Joshua to come out and try to get Parker out of there quickly. Joshua, KO in Round 3."
• Evan Young (boxing sharp): "Joshua is a physical marvel who has passed a gut check with Klitschko, an invaluable experience. He trains like a challenger. He's an extremely hard worker who will be well prepared for this fight. Joshua's jab, size, control and power will carry the day. I see Joshua breaking Parker down and stopping him between Rounds 8-12."
• Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): "Quality rumble! Probably a little closer than the current market suggests, but I'm yet to see enough from Parker to see a win here. I see AJ winning a solid contest, with the fight falling just short of the distance. I'm having something on AJ in Rounds 10-12 +450."
• Joshua Stabile (boxing sharp): "Joshua is too big, too skilled, too fast and too powerful. Parker is a solid opponent, but the talent disparity is too large. It appears Joshua is taking this fight seriously, which is bad news for Parker. Joshua, KO in 7. The -900 price is too steep to consider any serious wagers."
• John Gatling (boxing sharp): "This is The AJ Show. There's no way he doesn't bounce Parker in Wales. The New Zealander is a great person and does possess some solid fundamentals, but he's too basic and predictable after three or four rounds for AJ's seriously underrated corner to not expose. Look for Joshua to start looking a little wilder in the middle rounds, before calmly turning Parker into the former WBO heavyweight champion in the ninth."
[h=2]Tale of the tape[/h]
| Joshua | Parker | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 26 |
| Height | 6-6 | 6-4 |
| Reach | 82 inches | 76 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Fights | 20 | 24 |
| Wins | 20 | 24 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| KOs | 20 | 18 |
| KO percentage | 100 percent | 75 percent |
Parker: The 26-year-old fighting out of South Auckland, New Zealand is the WBO champion. He is the first man from New Zealand to hold a major title. This will be the third defense of the title that he won over Andy Ruiz by majority decision in December 2016. His past two fights have been anything but sensational, as he went the distance vs. Răzvan Cojanu, then won a close, controversial and brutally boring majority decision against Hughie Fury last September. He lands only 9.8 punches a round, per CompuBox, and is the No. 3-ranked heavyweight fighter by ESPN.
[h=2]Betting the fight[/h]The panel above is tipping Joshua by a not-so-shocking 10-0 margin. I don't disagree and will make it a clean sweep with AJ winning. I don't like laying huge prices, but if you let the public bet the underdog, like they do in most fights with higher odds, the line should come down. Laying -500 or lower would be extreme value.
Pick: Joshua -500 or better
