Best bets for Villanova-Michigan
Andrew LangeSeth Walder
ESPN INSIDER
The national championship game pits a top-tier Villanova offense against a stout Michigan defense.
The Wildcats look to win their second title in three years tonight after ousting Kansas on Saturday. Michigan earned their chance for its first championship since 1989 by beating Loyola Chicago.
Villanova and Michigan tip off at 9:20 p.m. ET this evening, and the contest should be competitive and exciting -- but how should bettors approach the game? Here's a look at how to bet the national championship from our college basketball experts, Andrew Lange and Seth Walder.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter.
Note: Odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of 11 a.m. ET on April 2.
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 144.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines
Lange: Who's ready to step in front of Villanova's offense? The Wildcats made 18 3-pointers and shot 55 percent from the field against Kansas, yet it was "only" their the eighth-highest offensive efficiency mark of the season. Yes, in seven other games -- three of which were against NCAA tournament participants -- Villanova's offense was actually better than what we witnessed on Saturday. So while we as bettors are wired to call for regression in the case of extremes, scoring 95 points on 1.34 points per possession was actually not out of the ordinary.
That said, let's not forget that sandwiched in between the shooting clinics against West Virginia and Kansas was a 4-of-24, 16.7-percent 3-point performance against a Texas Tech defense that ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency (right behind Michigan). Still, even if Michigan is able to limit Villanova's outside game, the Wildcats can obviously score other ways. Consider this: Villanova shot 30 percent or worse from outside the arc 18 times this season. Not only did they win all 18 of those contests, but only one was decided by less than Monday's 6.5-point spread.
I'm confident Michigan is going to put up far more resistance than Kansas, but can the Wolverines keep pace even if Villanova has an off night? Through five tournament games, Michigan is averaging only 1.04 points per possession, and that includes the 99 points on 72 possessions against Texas A&M.
Point spread-wise, Villanova closed -5 against both West Virginia and Kansas, and -6 versus Texas Tech. Here we see -6.5, with a number of Las Vegas sportsbooks showing -7. That number is no doubt inflated by what we witnessed out of both squads in the semifinals.
Michigan is not only built for this role (7-2 ATS as an underdog), but also has the personnel and defensive pedigree to keep Villanova's offense from going berserk. But even if they run Villanova off the 3-point line -- which they'll do -- and force the Wildcats to take tough 2s, I'm not sold on it being enough to hang for 40 minutes.
Can Michigan play the perfect game and spring the upset? Absolutely. But Villanova's historical ability to score is something that's very tough to bet against. In the end, I don't feel comfortable laying the inflated game price, so will instead look to play Villanova in-game at -4 or better.
ATS lean: Villanova -6.5 (but will look for Villanova in-game at -4 or better)
Walder: These two schools may both be in the title game, but considering them even remotely equal would be a false equivalence.
First, let's compare each team's path to Monday's game. Villanova had to push through the likes of No. 5 West Virginia, No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 1 Kansas in its last three games, while Michigan was fortunate enough to see No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 9 Florida State and No. 11 Loyola Chicago in those same rounds. No, games don't usually get easier deeper into the tournament, but that's exactly the sort of luck Michigan has run into.
None of this would really matter if our pre-tournament notion of Michigan was of the same ilk as our opinion of Villanova or Virginia. But it wasn't, and it wasn't even close.
Even now, after a strong tournament, Michigan ranks just 11th in BPI (behind, for example, West Virginia and Gonzaga), while the Wildcats are a clear No. 1 in the predictive metric. While the Wolverines may have the edge in defense, Villanova's advantage on offense is much more dramatic. No, the Wildcats might not knock down 18 3-pointers the way it did against Kansas, but they don't need to. In that game, after shooting that well, Villanova won by 16 against a better team than Michigan. Lay the points in the championship.
ATS pick: Villanova -6.5
Andrew LangeSeth Walder
ESPN INSIDER
The national championship game pits a top-tier Villanova offense against a stout Michigan defense.
The Wildcats look to win their second title in three years tonight after ousting Kansas on Saturday. Michigan earned their chance for its first championship since 1989 by beating Loyola Chicago.
Villanova and Michigan tip off at 9:20 p.m. ET this evening, and the contest should be competitive and exciting -- but how should bettors approach the game? Here's a look at how to bet the national championship from our college basketball experts, Andrew Lange and Seth Walder.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter.
Note: Odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of 11 a.m. ET on April 2.
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 144.5) vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines
Lange: Who's ready to step in front of Villanova's offense? The Wildcats made 18 3-pointers and shot 55 percent from the field against Kansas, yet it was "only" their the eighth-highest offensive efficiency mark of the season. Yes, in seven other games -- three of which were against NCAA tournament participants -- Villanova's offense was actually better than what we witnessed on Saturday. So while we as bettors are wired to call for regression in the case of extremes, scoring 95 points on 1.34 points per possession was actually not out of the ordinary.
That said, let's not forget that sandwiched in between the shooting clinics against West Virginia and Kansas was a 4-of-24, 16.7-percent 3-point performance against a Texas Tech defense that ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency (right behind Michigan). Still, even if Michigan is able to limit Villanova's outside game, the Wildcats can obviously score other ways. Consider this: Villanova shot 30 percent or worse from outside the arc 18 times this season. Not only did they win all 18 of those contests, but only one was decided by less than Monday's 6.5-point spread.
I'm confident Michigan is going to put up far more resistance than Kansas, but can the Wolverines keep pace even if Villanova has an off night? Through five tournament games, Michigan is averaging only 1.04 points per possession, and that includes the 99 points on 72 possessions against Texas A&M.
Point spread-wise, Villanova closed -5 against both West Virginia and Kansas, and -6 versus Texas Tech. Here we see -6.5, with a number of Las Vegas sportsbooks showing -7. That number is no doubt inflated by what we witnessed out of both squads in the semifinals.
Michigan is not only built for this role (7-2 ATS as an underdog), but also has the personnel and defensive pedigree to keep Villanova's offense from going berserk. But even if they run Villanova off the 3-point line -- which they'll do -- and force the Wildcats to take tough 2s, I'm not sold on it being enough to hang for 40 minutes.
Can Michigan play the perfect game and spring the upset? Absolutely. But Villanova's historical ability to score is something that's very tough to bet against. In the end, I don't feel comfortable laying the inflated game price, so will instead look to play Villanova in-game at -4 or better.
ATS lean: Villanova -6.5 (but will look for Villanova in-game at -4 or better)
Walder: These two schools may both be in the title game, but considering them even remotely equal would be a false equivalence.
First, let's compare each team's path to Monday's game. Villanova had to push through the likes of No. 5 West Virginia, No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 1 Kansas in its last three games, while Michigan was fortunate enough to see No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 9 Florida State and No. 11 Loyola Chicago in those same rounds. No, games don't usually get easier deeper into the tournament, but that's exactly the sort of luck Michigan has run into.
None of this would really matter if our pre-tournament notion of Michigan was of the same ilk as our opinion of Villanova or Virginia. But it wasn't, and it wasn't even close.
Even now, after a strong tournament, Michigan ranks just 11th in BPI (behind, for example, West Virginia and Gonzaga), while the Wildcats are a clear No. 1 in the predictive metric. While the Wolverines may have the edge in defense, Villanova's advantage on offense is much more dramatic. No, the Wildcats might not knock down 18 3-pointers the way it did against Kansas, but they don't need to. In that game, after shooting that well, Villanova won by 16 against a better team than Michigan. Lay the points in the championship.
ATS pick: Villanova -6.5
