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Thread: 2018 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

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  1. #26  
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    Here are a few more 'stats' as one may say concerning this year's entries in the Derby.........



    Number of Lifetime Graded Races and Number of 1 1/8 Races


    ------------------------------- # G-------------------# 1/8


    - Good Magic-----------------4------------------------1
    - Audible----------------------2------------------------1
    - Noble Indy------------------2------------------------1
    - Vino Rosso------------------3------------------------1
    - Bolt DíOro------------------6-------------------------1
    - Enticed----------------------6------------------------1
    - Justify-----------------------1------------------------1
    - Flameaway------------------6------------------------1
    - Brazazo----------------------4------------------------1
    - Promises Fulfilled-----------2-------------------------1
    - Runaway Ghost-------------2------------------------1
    - Free Drop Billy--------------7------------------------1
    - Lone Sailor------------------3------------------------1
    - Hofburg---------------------1-------------------------1
    - Firenze Fire-----------------7-------------------------2
    - My Boy Jack-----------------4------------------------1
    - Instilled Regard-------------4------------------------1
    - Dream Baby Dream---------1------------------------1
    - Restoring Hope--------------1------------------------1
    - Old Time Revival------------1-------------------------1
    - Magnum Moon...................2..............................1
    - Quip.................................2..............................1
    - Solomini............................5..............................1
    - Combatant........................3...............................1
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  2. #27  
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    And the SPD ratings for the boys................

    My SPD Numbers Calculations..................Highest SPD #


    - Justify-----------------------------106.0--------------114
    - Bolt Dí Oro-----------------------102.3---------------110
    - Audible---------------------------102.0---------------107
    - Good Magic----------------------100.3---------------105
    - Flameaway------------------------98.3----------------101
    - Vino Rosso------------------------97.6---------------102
    - Instilled Regard-------------------97.6---------------102
    - Solomini---------------------------97.3----------------101
    - My Boy Jack----------------------97.0-----------------99
    - Noble Indy------------------------97.0----------------100
    - Enticed----------------------------97.0----------------104
    - Magnum Moon--------------------96.3----------------100
    - Free Drop Billy-------------------96.3-----------------99
    - Promises Fulfilled----------------95.3----------------104
    - Combatant------------------------94.0---------------96
    - Hofburg---------------------------93.0---------------104
    - Quip-------------------------------92.3----------------98
    - Firenze Fire-----------------------91.6----------------94
    - Bravazo---------------------------91.0-----------------98
    - Old Time Revival-----------------90.3----------------101
    - Dream baby Dream--------------90.3-----------------92
    - Restoring Hope-------------------88.6-----------------96
    - Lone Sailor-----------------------88.0-----------------100



    Be well all........................going to be post time before you know it..................
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  3. #28  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Here is a little info, for what it is worth................

    Which prep tops the list with the most winners in recent history ?


    Itís the Florida Derby with four. Right behind are the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park with two. After that, the Blue Grass, Spiral and Sunland Derby, each have one.


    As satisfying as it may be to cash a win bet on the Derby, itís even more thrilling Ė and financially rewarding Ė to hit the exacta or trifecta on a race with a 20-horse field. To that end, the 33 top three finishers in the last 11 years can be a means to filling in some of the blanks.




    The prep that leads the way with seven in-the-money finishers might be surprising. With two wins, three seconds and thirds, it is the Arkansas Derby.


    The two stakes next are the Santa Anita Derby with six in the money finishers This one is quite logical, being the Santa Anita Derby with two wins, two seconds and two third.


    And the other reflects the value of expecting the unexpected at the Derby. Itís the Louisiana Derby with no wins, but two seconds and three thirds Ė all of them coming in the last seven years. Beyond that, in the last five years at least one Louisiana Derby horse has figured in the trifecta in three of them. Considering that the odds of those five horses in the Derby were 37-1, 34-1, 10-1, 9-1 and 6-1, including a horse from Fair Groundsí definitive prep in a boxed exacta or trifecta could be the key to unlocking a huge payoff.


    After that comes the Florida Derby with the four wins but only one second which wold also give them five finishers in the money.


    Next is the Blue Grass with a win and two thirds for three. The Sunland Derby and Spiral both have a win and a second.


    Morning 11

    Can u please share the 5 horses that finished ITM from GP ? Much appreciated !!!
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  4. #29  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    OK, one week gone a 3 weeks to go to Derby Day.................Here is my new top 10...........

    1.) Mendelssohn - can he break the Dubai Curse
    2.) Audible - believe he has another big race on deck
    3.) Magnum Moon - think he is the better of the 'did not race as a 2 yr olds '
    4.) Justify - starting to think he will have a tougher time than expected
    5.) Vino Rosso - interesting colt here and why did Johnny V decide this mount instead of his others
    6.) Bolt D'Oro - just can not get a handle on him yet of how he will bounce back after 2 grueling west coast races
    7.) Good Magic - wants to be there
    8.) My Boy Jack - this horse reminds me of Charismatic, a big closer and we know what he did
    9.) Hofburg - seems to be getting better every race
    10.) Flameaway - just always seems to be in the running and in the money

    ----- Be Well All....................

    Really like Audibles last race but a small concern of mine is ....

    His stamina is at an 11 in the Conduit Mare Numbers . While that does not mean he canít win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970.

    Thoughts bro ? Appreciate the insight
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  5. #30  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    Morning 11

    Can u please share the 5 horses that finished ITM from GP ? Much appreciated !!!
    Hello Kaboom..........

    Hmmmmm, going to have to check on that, just took this story as it was posted and the author did not list the names of the horses.

    But will try to find something, thanks....
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  6. #31  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    Really like Audibles last race but a small concern of mine is ....

    His stamina is at an 11 in the Conduit Mare Numbers . While that does not mean he can’t win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970.

    Thoughts bro ? Appreciate the insight
    I really like looking at , and digesting all of these trends...............as 'this has not happened since,.............no horse has done this with this high a number or low number against them .................and so on and so on.

    And most of the time these 'trends' hold true...................but then there is always the outside chance that a horse can pull it off even with all of the trends against him. Audible looks good............always is properly positioned in the race and always shows up to play.............I do like him and he has to be considered a top play in my book.

    Thanks and be well
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  7. #32  
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    Here are the Late Pace numbers, which are very important in this type of race, I believe............

    --------My Late Pace Numbers Calculations.............Highest LP #


    - Bolt Dí Oro----------------------106.6----------------------114
    - Audible--------------------------105.6----------------------118
    - Magnum Moon------------------104.6----------------------115
    - Vino Rosso----------------------102.6---------------------106
    - My Boy Jack--------------------101.7----------------------106
    - Combatant----------------------101.3---------------------116
    - Flameaway---------------------100.0---------------------110
    - Instilled Regard----------------100.0---------------------105
    - Good Magic----------------------99.3---------------------109
    - Solomini-------------------------99.0---------------------111
    - Justify---------------------------98.6---------------------117
    - Quip-----------------------------98.0---------------------109
    - Dream baby Dream-------------96.6--------------------106
    - Noble Indy-----------------------94.0--------------------103
    - Hofburg--------------------------93.3--------------------101
    - Free Drop Billy-------------------93.0-------------------102
    - Promises Fulfilled----------------91.6-------------------102
    - Lone Sailor-----------------------90.6-------------------103
    - Enticed---------------------------90.0--------------------95
    - Bravazo---------------------------88.3-------------------100
    - Restoring Hope------------------83.0--------------------90
    - Old Time Revival----------------80.3---------------------92
    - Firenze Fire----------------------78.3--------------------104


    - Be well all,
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  8. #33  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Hello Kaboom..........

    Hmmmmm, going to have to check on that, just took this story as it was posted and the author did not list the names of the horses.

    But will try to find something, thanks....

    Awesome buddy ...only if possible ...no problem ...but thank you !
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  9. #34  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    I really like looking at , and digesting all of these trends...............as 'this has not happened since,.............no horse has done this with this high a number or low number against them .................and so on and so on.

    And most of the time these 'trends' hold true...................but then there is always the outside chance that a horse can pull it off even with all of the trends against him. Audible looks good............always is properly positioned in the race and always shows up to play.............I do like him and he has to be considered a top play in my book.

    Thanks and be well

    Most everybody will be on him , for sure , imo ....

    I also don't like his high Index number of 1.32 in the Conduit Mare Profile ... Last 27 years no horse has an Index in the CMP of higher than 1.09 ( Charismatic 1999 ) ...

    Just trying to poke holes in horses to give us all an edge bro ... He may still whip these guys , for sure .... just using my number breakdowns ....
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  10. #35  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    Morning 11

    Can u please share the 5 horses that finished ITM from GP ? Much appreciated !!!
    2016...Gun Runner won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 10-1

    2014...Commanding Curve ran 3rd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 37-1

    2013...Revolutionary won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 6-1

    2011...Nehro ran 2nd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 9-1


    cant find the 5th horse he is talking about. Only horse to finish in trifecta at those odds was Lookin at Lee(33-1) last year but he ran in Arkansas Derby
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  11. #36  
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    Thanks to all of those who have posted comments so far........................Much Appreciated..............let's try and bring home a winner..............or better yet some exotic wagers


    Now how about those Beyer Figures..................


    -----My Beyer Numbers Calculations.........Highest Beyer #

    - Justify----------------------104.0--------------------107
    - Bolt DíOro------------------98.0---------------------103
    - Good Magic----------------94.6---------------------100
    - Magnum Moon------------94.3----------------------98
    - Audible--------------------94.0----------------------99
    - Flameaway----------------92.6----------------------93
    - My Boy Jack---------------92.3----------------------94
    - Solomini-------------------92.3----------------------93
    - Vino Rosso----------------91.0----------------------98
    - Noble Indy----------------90.0----------------------95
    - Combatant----------------89.6----------------------94
    - Enticed--------------------88.0----------------------95
    - Free Drop Billy------------87.3---------------------90
    - Quip-----------------------84.6----------------------94
    - Bravazo-------------------82.0----------------------93
    - Lone Sailor---------------81.6----------------------95
    - Firenze Fire---------------81.0----------------------90
    - Hofburg-------------------79.0----------------------94
    - Promises Fulfilled--------73.0----------------------96
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  12. #37  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    2016...Gun Runner won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 10-1

    2014...Commanding Curve ran 3rd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 37-1

    2013...Revolutionary won Louisiana Derby and ran 3rd in Kentucky Derby at 6-1

    2011...Nehro ran 2nd in Louisiana Derby and 2nd in Kentucky Derby at 9-1


    cant find the 5th horse he is talking about. Only horse to finish in trifecta at those odds was Lookin at Lee(33-1) last year but he ran in Arkansas Derby

    Excellent work bro !!!

    Thank u !!!

    GL on the Derby !!!!
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  13. #38  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Now the ever so " may mean something, or may mean absolutely nothing ' statistic...............


    -----------------------Fastest Time for 1 1/8 Race


    - Audible...................................1.49.2
    - Vino Rosso..............................1.49.3
    - Enticed...................................1.49.3
    - Justify....................................1.49.3
    - Magnum Moon........................1:49.4
    - Dream Baby Dream.................1.49.4
    - Hofburg..................................1.50.0
    - Good Magic.............................1.50.0
    - Quip......................................1:50.0
    - Solomini.................................1:50.1
    - Noble Indy..............................1.50.1
    - Bolt Dí Oro.............................1.50.1
    - Flameaway.............................1.50.1
    - Lone Sailor..............................1.50.1
    - My Boy Jack...........................1.50.2
    - Combatant.............................1:50.2
    - Restoring Hope.......................1.50.3
    - Free Drop Billy.......................1.50.4
    - Instilled Regard......................1.51.3
    - Firenze Fire...........................1.51.4
    - Bravazo.................................1.54.0
    - Old Time Revival....................1.54.3
    - Promises Fulfilled...................1.56.3


    - Gronkowski..............................?
    - Mendelssohn............................?




    We all know that these times come from many different tangibles, such as different racetracks, different track surfaces, different weather conditions, different jockeys, who had what for breakfast that day.....and so on and so on etc..... But it is simply a number which I like to take a look at.............again, may mean absolutely nothing, but.......................

    Be well all........................
    I believe Enticedís time should be 1:50.1 since he finished 3 lengths behind Vino Rosso in the Wood.

    Do you happened to have the beyer figures for each horse for these times? I found a few but not all and itís interesting to note Justify earned a 107 beyer, 8 points higher than the 99 Audible earned despite having a slower time. Not sure it means much but interesting if you look at beyer speed figures.
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  14. #39  
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    Always enjoy this thread, 11 black. Thanks to you and those who contribute.
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  15. #40  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    I believe Enticedís time should be 1:50.1 since he finished 3 lengths behind Vino Rosso in the Wood.

    Do you happened to have the beyer figures for each horse for these times? I found a few but not all and itís interesting to note Justify earned a 107 beyer, 8 points higher than the 99 Audible earned despite having a slower time. Not sure it means much but interesting if you look at beyer speed figures.
    wabash...........

    Yep you are correct...........Enticed should be 1.50.1

    The Beyers that I have for each of these times are as follows.....

    -----------------------Fastest Time for 1 1/8 Race.....Beyers for each of the 1/8 races with best times...........


    - Audible...................................1.49.2...................................99
    - Vino Rosso..............................1.49.3...................................98
    - Justify....................................1.49.3....................................107
    - Magnum Moon........................1:49.4.....................................98
    - Dream Baby Dream.................1.49.4
    - Hofburg..................................1.50.0...................................94
    - Good Magic.............................1.50.0....................................95
    - Quip......................................1:50.0......................................92
    - Enticed...................................1:50.1.....................................93
    - Solomini.................................1:50.1.....................................92
    - Noble Indy..............................1.50.1....................................95
    - Bolt Dí Oro.............................1.50.1.....................................102
    - Flameaway.............................1.50.1.....................................93
    - Lone Sailor..............................1.50.1....................................95
    - My Boy Jack...........................1.50.2......................................94
    - Combatant.............................1:50.2.....................................92
    - Restoring Hope.......................1.50.3
    - Free Drop Billy.......................1.50.4......................................89
    - Instilled Regard......................1.51.3
    - Firenze Fire...........................1.51.4......................................81
    - Bravazo.................................1.54.0......................................64
    - Old Time Revival....................1.54.3
    - Promises Fulfilled...................1.56.3.....................................47

    - Gronkowski..............................?
    - Mendelssohn............................?


    Thanks and have a great weekend, boys and girls.............
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  16. #41  
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    So how many of these 'contenders' have been getting slightly better ( if you think Beyers, SPD, LP numbers ) for the past 3 races ?


    Horse which have got better at Beyers ---- SPD ------ LP in the last few races.


    - Audible-------------------------------Y-------------Y-----------N
    - Noble Indy---------------------------Y-------------Y-----------N
    - Bolt DíOro---------------------------Y-------------N-----------N
    - Justify-------------------------------N-------------Y-----------N
    - Magnum Moon----------------------Y-------------N-----------N
    - Lone Sailor--------------------------Y-------------Y-----------N
    - Hofburg-----------------------------Y-------------Y------------Y
    - Combatant--------------------------Y-------------N-----------Y

    For whatever this all means............................2 weeks to the big dance..............

    Be well all...........
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  17. #42  
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    Something I read on DRF today that most probably figured but now is confirmed.

    Dale Romans will instruct jockey Corey Lanerie to send Promises Fulfilled to the lead in the Derby. Romans was quoted saying “Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be the horse in front of him trying to get ahead of him, at least if they are trying to win”

    pace could be brutal.
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  18. #43  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    Something I read on DRF today that most probably figured but now is confirmed.

    Dale Romans will instruct jockey Corey Lanerie to send Promises Fulfilled to the lead in the Derby. Romans was quoted saying “Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be the horse in front of him trying to get ahead of him, at least if they are trying to win”

    pace could be brutal.
    And just who is going to be chasing that rabbit................going to be fun..........
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  19. #44  
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    I believe that this years winner will have to post a triple digit beyer...................probably all past winners have done this so no big revelation of course............

    Which horses have already posted a triple digit .........

    .............Horses Who Have Had Triple Digit Beyers


    - Good Magic----------------------100
    - Bolt DíOro-----------------------103,101,102
    - Justify---------------------------104,101,107
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  20. #45  
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    Some interesting stuff..........................

    Recently I heard ( and read ) that since the prep races went to the 100 point system for certain prep races.............the eventual Kentucky Derby winner would have won one of these races previously. So letís check these ďHorsesĒ which won the prep races worth 100 pts.........


    - Noble Indy
    - Mendelssohn
    - Audible
    - Good Magic
    - Justify
    - Vino Rosso
    - Magnum Moon


    So , to make it easier for us, according to this, this yearís winner will be one of these named.

    Be well all............
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  21. #46  
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    Now with less than 2 weeks to derby day.................my top 10.....................


    1.) Mendelssohn -
    2.) Audible -
    3.) Vino Rosso
    4.) Justify -
    5.) Bolt D'Oro
    6.) Magnum Moon
    7.) My Boy Jack -
    8.) Hofburg-
    9.) Good Magic-
    10.) Flameaway -

    ----- Be Well All....................
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  22. #47  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Now with less than 2 weeks to derby day.................my top 10.....................


    1.) Mendelssohn -
    2.) Audible -
    3.) Vino Rosso
    4.) Justify -
    5.) Bolt D'Oro
    6.) Magnum Moon
    7.) My Boy Jack -
    8.) Hofburg-
    9.) Good Magic-
    10.) Flameaway -

    ----- Be Well All....................
    I like your list. My Boy Jack is another longshot I really like also. This horse can run all day long and I think the race will set up nicely for him. Might not win but a definite use underneath.
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  23. #48  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    I like your list. My Boy Jack is another longshot I really like also. This horse can run all day long and I think the race will set up nicely for him. Might not win but a definite use underneath.
    I am sure you have already, but watch his replays.......................he loves coming down the stretch................seems like he switches to another gear on the far turns always......

    If he can be positioned well, and not completely back of the pack, look out..............he will be passing many horses in the end. Will definitely include him in my exotics...........

    Actually thinking of a Mendlessohn, Vino, MBJack and Hofburg, and Audible box...........
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  24. #49  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    I am sure you have already, but watch his replays.......................he loves coming down the stretch................seems like he switches to another gear on the far turns always......

    If he can be positioned well, and not completely back of the pack, look out..............he will be passing many horses in the end. Will definitely include him in my exotics...........

    Actually thinking of a Mendlessohn, Vino, MBJack and Hofburg, and Audible box...........
    I watched all 4 races last night and the thing that actually stood out was he ran 4 very good races on 4 different tracks. And his best race might have been in the Southwest on a muddy track, so he can handle an off track also if that happens. Iím a fan of the Desormeaux brothers too.
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  25. #50  
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    Quip will not run in the Derby and will go to the Preakness. The rumor is Gronkowski may not run either. Combatant is now in and Instilled Regard next if Gronkowski doesn’t run.
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