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Thread: 2018 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

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  1. #51  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    Quip will not run in the Derby and will go to the Preakness. The rumor is Gronkowski may not run either. Combatant is now in and Instilled Regard next if Gronkowski doesn’t run.
    Much thanks for the update....................do not believe Gronkowski has a chance, but he would have taken a lot of money his way.................just because of his name and the casual bettor............Quip was one of my tosses...
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  2. #52  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Much thanks for the update....................do not believe Gronkowski has a chance, but he would have taken a lot of money his way.................just because of his name and the casual bettor............Quip was one of my tosses...
    I agree. I do like that Combatant got in because I have him in future pool 2 at 72-1.
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  3. #53  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    I agree. I do like that Combatant got in because I have him in future pool 2 at 72-1.

    Nice................very nice.......will be rooting for you on that one
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  4. #54  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Nice................very nice.......will be rooting for you on that one
    I bet a few more than usual on future plays this year hopefully it will pay off. Also got Mendelssohn at 31-1 in pool 1, which I thought was a big gamble when I bet it but looks good now. Just wish I had made the same gambles in pools 2 and 3 when he was 44-1 and 28-1.
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  5. #55  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Which horses carry that ever so elusive X Factor gene................They are...................

    Audible
    Bolt D”Oro
    Free Drop Billy
    Good Magic
    Hofburg
    Justify
    Lone Sailor
    Mendelssohn
    My Boy Jack
    Promises Fulfilled
    Solomini
    Vino Rosso

    Starting to get very interesting................
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  6. #56  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    About the X Factor gene..................since the early 70's ............37 winners likely carried this large heart gene, according to their pedigree charts and physical characteristics...........


    1973-1975 - yes
    1976 - no
    1977-1981 - yes
    1982-1983 - no
    1984 - yes
    1985-1986 - no
    1987 - yes
    1988-1989 - no
    1990 - yes
    1991-1992 - no
    1993-2000 - yes
    2001-2003 - no
    2004 - yes
    2005-2006 - no
    2007-2008 - yes
    2009 - no
    2010 - yes
    2011-2012 - no
    2013-2017 - yes
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  7. #57  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Below are the final 3-furlong times in the last Derby prep race for the last six Kentucky Derby winners:

    2017-Always Dreaming (36.56 in Florida Derby)
    2016-Nyquist (37.64 in Florida Derby)
    2015-American Pharoah (37.82 in Arkansas Derby)
    2014-California Chrome (36.69 in Santa Anita Derby)
    2013-Orb (37.74 in Florida Derby)
    2012-I’ll Have Another (36.42 in Santa Anita Derby)




    With the above being said here are the top ten estimated final 3 furlongs for this year’s contenders..........


    - Magnum Moon .....................36.47
    - Justify.................................36.87
    - My Boy Jack.........................37.21
    - Mendelssohn........................37.34
    - Bolt D’Oro............................37.35
    - Audible................................37.48
    - Vino Rosso...........................37.63
    - Hofburg...............................37.88
    - Good Magic..........................38.21
    - Lone Sailor...........................38.21




    Some very good stuff here, I believe.............

    Be well all....................
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  8. #58  
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    Outstanding work ...as always bro .... Thank u for sharing !!!
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  9. #59  
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    your thread has been so informative- thanks
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  10. #60  
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    11, Good to see some others showing appreciation for the work you do with this thread every year. Refreshing change from some of the actual pricks who have been negative towards it in years past. Great work!!
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  11. #61  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    11, Good to see some others showing appreciation for the work you do with this thread every year. Refreshing change from some of the actual pricks who have been negative towards it in years past. Great work!!
    I could not agree more bud !!! Well done 11 !!!
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  12. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    Below are the final 3-furlong times in the last Derby prep race for the last six Kentucky Derby winners:

    2017-Always Dreaming (36.56 in Florida Derby)
    2016-Nyquist (37.64 in Florida Derby)
    2015-American Pharoah (37.82 in Arkansas Derby)
    2014-California Chrome (36.69 in Santa Anita Derby)
    2013-Orb (37.74 in Florida Derby)
    2012-I’ll Have Another (36.42 in Santa Anita Derby)




    With the above being said here are the top ten estimated final 3 furlongs for this year’s contenders..........


    - Magnum Moon .....................36.47
    - Justify.................................36.87
    - My Boy Jack.........................37.21
    - Mendelssohn........................37.34
    - Bolt D’Oro............................37.35
    - Audible................................37.48
    - Vino Rosso...........................37.63
    - Hofburg...............................37.88
    - Good Magic..........................38.21
    - Lone Sailor...........................38.21




    Some very good stuff here, I believe.............

    Be well all....................

    I believe you're right! TY ^^^^

    Hopefully the forecast is wrong! 100% Friday/Saturday with 70% Saturday 5th! Looking forward to draw
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  13. #63  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Hello all.........................Just want to say to everyone who has made some very nice comments ......................" Thank You Very Much "......................

    I appreciate all of your input , suggestions, comments, and of course selections as we get nearer to the day. It is truly appreciated. We do this together as one..............

    OK, getting close.......I really think we are going to have a wonderful derby to wager on.....................should be some excellent opportunities for wagering in the exotics...............

    Be well all.................
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  14. #64  
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    OK, here is another great angle I always like to look at.................... The Raise a Native line...................



    The list of Kentucky Derby winners that traces back to Raise A Native influence is startling.


    As of last year there have been 20 Kentucky Derby winners that link back to Raise A Native on the sire line. They are American Pharoah, Always Dreaming, I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Thunder Gulch, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Genuine Risk, Affirmed, Street Sense, and Majestic Prince.


    On the broodmare side of the equation there were Mine That Bird, Barbaro and Real Quiet.


    Going back to 1980 and Genuine Risk that amounts to 21 winners in the last 38 editions of the Kentucky Derby.


    That is quite a roster. And guess what, Raise A native has another roster in 2018.


    Taking a random look for instance at “The Derby Dozen” an important weekly updated preview column from Steve Haskin we find the following.


    Vino Rosso and Good Magic, each of whom are sired by Curlin, who traces back to Smart Strike, Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.


    Magnum Moon, whose dam Macoumba traces back through her sire Malibu Moon to Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.


    My Boy Jack, whose dam Gold N Shaft is a daughter of Mineshaft who himself goes back through Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.


    Enticed, whose dam It’s Tricky is also a daughter of Mineshaft who himself goes back through Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native.


    Flameaway is another from the broodmare side. His dam Vulcan Rose was a daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus who had the same Mr. Prospector and Raise A Native connection.


    As you read this you might be forgiven if you ask, why not just give credit to Mr. Prospector? Fair enough…but I will give credit where credit is due. And it was Raise A Native who begot Mr. Prospector.


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thanks to the individual that posted this story online................
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  15. #65  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Here are some interesting facts about this year's derby.............

    1. The post-time favorite has won the race each of the last five years, a streak that hasn’t been matched since 1895. This year, expected favorite Justify will try to emulate Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017).


    2. The Kentucky Derby is one of the highest-attended sporting events in the world. Last year 158,070 horse racing fans packed the track, and the average over the last 10 years is 160,963.


    3. Horses whose first initial is “A” have won the race 11 times from 96 tries, including Always Dreaming’s win last year. The 11.5 percent success rate is higher than any other initial, good news for fans of Audible.


    4. No foreign-born horse has won the run for the roses since 1983, when Canadian-born Sunny’s Halo was victorious. Canadian-bred Flameaway will try this year.


    5. The red rose has been the official flower of the race since 1904, and the winner’s garland features more than 400 of them.


    6. Trainer Todd Pletcher has entered four or more horses in the Kentucky Derby on five occasions, more than any other trainer. This year he’s expected make that six occasions as he enters 20 percent of the field: Magnum Moon, Audible, Noble Indy, and Vino Rosso.


    7. Triple Crown winner Secretariat still holds the speed record in the Derby, completing the 1 ¼ miles in 1:59.40 in 1973. Monarchos is the only other horse who’s cracked two minutes, winning the 2001 edition in 1:59.97.


    8. The Florida Derby has produced three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners: Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. Audible, Hofburg, and Promises Fulfilled are the three 2018 Florida Derby runners expected for this year’s Derby.


    9. The Kentucky Derby is the oldest continuously run major sporting event in the country. It has been run every year since 1875, making this year the 144th edition.


    10. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Eight have tried in the last 10 years including Battle of Midway (third) and Patch (14th) last year. Both Magnum Moon and Justify will try to beat the “curse” this year.


    11. Though both are 3-year-olds, Kentucky Derby contender Mendelssohn is technically the uncle of fellow Kentucky Derby hopeful Audible. Mendelssohn’s dam (mother) is also the dam of Audible’s sire (father), Into Mischief.


    12. Last year fans bet a whopping $209,179,920 on Kentucky Derby day races, a record. More than $139 million of it was bet on the Derby alone.


    ------ Hope Audible listens to his uncle next Saturday...............

    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  16. #66  
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    elevenblack I like reading the material that you provide but I dont really get into until the post positions are drawn as Im seeing alot of speed right out of the gate IMO looking at it early but I could be wrong with a 20 horse field anything can and will happen.
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  17. #67  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Gravy,

    Hope you are correct with all of the out of the gate speed........................will set up very well for the mid-pack and closers who I am beginning to especially like. Just can't be too far back though when they switch gears...........

    Looking forward to you plays,
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  18. #68  
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    Draw is next....... Usually Wednesday

    Justify (2-1)
    Magnum Moon (4-1)
    Mendelssohn (9-2
    Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
    Good Magic (7-1)
    Audible (10-1)
    Vino Rosso (12-1)
    Enticed (18-1)
    My Boy Jack (20-1)
    Solomini (20-1)
    Instilled Regard (20-1)
    Noble Indy (24-1)
    Hofburg (30-1)

    Lone Sailor (40-1)
    Flameaway (40-1
    Combatant (40-1)
    Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
    Bravazo (50-1)
    Free Drop Billy (50-1)
    Strike Power (50-1)
    Restoring Hope (50-1)
    Firenze Fire (60-1)
    Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
    Dream Baby Dream (100-1)
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  19. #69  
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    With 1 week before Derby Day, here is my top ten updated..........


    1.) Mendelssohn -
    2.) Vino Rosso -
    3.) My Boy Jack -
    4.) Audible-
    5.) Magnum Moon -
    6.) Bolt D' Oro
    7.) Hofburg-
    8.) Justify -
    9.) Flameaway-
    10.) Solomini -

    ....Be Well All..............
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  20. #70  
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    Quote Originally Posted by elevenblack301 View Post
    With 1 week before Derby Day, here is my top ten updated..........


    1.) Mendelssohn -
    2.) Vino Rosso -
    3.) My Boy Jack -
    4.) Audible-
    5.) Magnum Moon -
    6.) Bolt D' Oro
    7.) Hofburg-
    8.) Justify -
    9.) Flameaway-
    10.) Solomini -

    ....Be Well All..............

    Vino is growing on me too bro .... love Mendelssohn ...he has all the Large Heart horses in his Pedigree .... Blue Lasrkspar ...War Admiral ... Princequillo ...Nasrullah ....Mahmoud ....Man O War .... Only thing I don't like is Scat Daddy Sire ...1/33 with longer races
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  21. #71  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Wow, maybe I am the last to find this out, but just read that Churchill moved up the Post Draw to Tuesday, ( not Wednesday ) this year.

    Think I am going to like having an extra day to digest all of this stuff.............

    Be well all.............
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  22. #72  
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    Good work as usual eleven - Some more speed info .

    Who's fastest? Comparing Derby contenders' speed figures

    Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.

    For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.

    “I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”

    No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.


    Photo: Eclipse Sportswire


    Speed figures, of course, only show how fast horses have run — not how fast they could run. But Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures, along with Brisnet Speed Ratings, can give us an idea of who belongs near the top of your 2018 Kentucky Derby wagers.

    For instance, Classic Empire and Always Dreaming sported some of the top figures heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs. But Classic Empire posted his number as a juvenile. Always Dreaming peaked at the right time and won.

    “I look at them,” said Mike Battaglia, who has set the Derby’s morning line more than 40 years, on figures. “I try to find a horse that has a little worse Beyer — that’s probably better than what the Beyer says.”

    No matter how you use them, consider speed figures part of the equation. Here, we’ve listed the last three numbers from each source to help with your handicapping.



    Beyer Speed Figures

    Horse Last Start Two Back Three Back
    Magnum Moon 98 97 88
    Good Magic 95 89 100
    Audible 99 99 84
    Noble Indy 95 91 84
    Vino Rosso 98 85 90
    Bolt d'Oro 102 101 91
    Enticed 93 95 76
    Mendelssohn 106* N/A N/A
    Justify 107 101 104
    Flamaway 92 94 68
    Solomini 92 92 93
    Bravazo 64 93 89
    My Boy Jack 90 94 93
    Promises Fulfilled 47 96 76
    Free Drop Billy 89 83 90
    Lone Sailor 95 78 72
    Hofburg 94 83 60
    Firenze Fire 81 79 83
    Combatant 92 92 85
    Instilled Regard 90 91 92
    *Special figure assigned for UAE Derby

    Brisnet Speed Ratings
    Horse Last Start Two Back Three Back
    Magnum Moon 99 100 90
    Good Magic 98 98 105
    Audible 107 105 94
    Noble Indy 100 96 95
    Vino Rosso 102 91 100
    Bolt d'Oro 110 98 99
    Enticed 99 104 88
    Mendelssohn N/A N/A N/A
    Justify 114 104 100
    Flamaway 97 97 101
    Solomini 95 96 101
    Bravazo 76 98 96
    My Boy Jack 94 99 98
    Promises Fulfilled 67 104 90
    Free Drop Billy 67 104 90
    Lone Sailor 100 83 81
    Hofburg 104 96 79
    Firenze Fire 90 93 92
    Combatant 94 95 92
    Instilled Regard 102 95 96

    TimeformUS Speed Figures

    Horse Last Start Two Back Three Back
    Magnum Moon 114 116 106
    Good Magic 121 113 116
    Audible 120 114 102
    Noble Indy 116 106 103
    Vino Rosso 120 104 112
    Bolt d'Oro 128 122 110
    Enticed 119 115 100
    Mendelssohn 120 114 108
    Justify 131 122 129
    Flamaway 120 111 115
    Solomini 108 113 118
    Bravazo 94 110 104
    My Boy Jack 114 112 114
    Promises Fulfilled 91 116 103
    Free Drop Billy 115 107 111
    Lone Sailor 113 96 100
    Hofburg 116 104 86
    Firenze Fire 107 104 109
    Combatant 108 111 107
    Instilled Regard 119 109 113




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  23. #73  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Lenbo,

    Nice, very nice stuff........................thanks, much appreciated.

    Looking forward to your and everyone's selections in a few days...
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  24. #74  
    RX Senior elevenblack301's Avatar
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    Also for what it's worth 'stuff', looking at Lenbo's post of speed, there are 3 horse which have improved in each 'rating' from three back, to two back to the last race............

    And they are,

    - Audible
    - Noble Indy
    - Hofburg

    Again, for whatever it's worth................just seems Hofburg keeps showing up.......
    ......So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide.
    ............All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us"
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  25. #75  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabashwonders View Post
    The horse I’m starting to like for a longshot play is Hofburg. Ran big in Florida Derby in only his 3rd start after breaking his maiden in previous race. The 2nd place finisher in that maiden win, Just Whistle, came back yesterday and looked very impressive beating a good field at Keeneland. And he will love the added distance. If the pace is fast which I expect it will be, this is the type of horse that can run them all down in the stretch. A definite use in exotics underneath.
    Posted this 2 weeks ago today and I’m loving this horse even more now especially after a very nice workout this morning.

    My top 10...

    Mendelssohn
    Hofburg
    Magnum Moon
    Vino Rosso
    My Boy Jack
    Justify
    Bolt d’Oro
    Good Magic
    Combatant
    Flameaway
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