2018 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

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Another year, another great race only a few weeks away............

Thought I would list my top ten at this time and see how it changes, so here we go,

1.) Justify
2.) Mendelssohn
3.) Audible
4.) Bolt D'Oro
5.) Magnum Moon
6.) Enticed
7.) Good magic
8.) Vino Rosso
9.) Quip
10.) Flameaway

Stay healthy everyone, and be well.............
 

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Here’s my final Derby 6-pack:

1-Audible 2-Magnum Moon 3-Quip 4-Bolt D’Oro 5-Mendelssohn 6-Justify
 
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Welcome back 11black. Always enjoy your Derby thread every year. For me, about the only good thing on this site anymore. Looks like a pretty good group of 3 year olds with no real standout. Really looking forward to next weeks Arkansas Derby. Magnum Moon, Quip and Solomini are all horses I like and anxious to see how each of them run next week. I thought Good Magic ran a very good race in the Blue Grass and will move forward in his 3rd start of year. Justify looked ok but if Future pool 4 is any indication and he is the favorite, I won’t play him to win at short price. Audible has looked very good also. I thought the best 3 year old so far was McKinzie, but the injury put an end to his chances.
 

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My $30 investment..... Tri-boxed

If the stars line-up. The 1st Saturday in May.... 5th in 2018 before and after draw I'll try

2-3-4-6-13
for 50 cents. If
"Vino Rosso
" # isn't included <<<< I'll do 6 TBX for $60 and if a grey is running I'll play $10 ATB on the Grey. Who the best on paper isn't always in the winners circle.

I gave up buying a program years ago. Unless you are putting 10,000 to win on the best you should play the rest and hope for the best to lose.....


All hail American Pharoah! The much-ballyhooed, hard-charging colt came away with a win in the 141st Kentucky Derby, narrowly beating out nearest runners-up Firing Line and Dortmund to claim a first-place finish. In other words, it happened the way the odds said it would: the favored American Pharoah made good on the confidence of all those folks who placed bets on him, in front of a record-high television audience. But that isn't as common as you might expect.

How often does the favorite win the Kentucky Derby, would you reckon?


Obviously, for a race with as long a history as the Derby's (the first race was held back in 1875), you're dealing with a lot of numbers. But luckily, there are records on this: 49 out of the 141 Kentucky Derbys have been won by the favorite, just over one-third of the time.


Always a good read eleven 301
 
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Here’s my final Derby 6-pack:

1-Audible 2-Magnum Moon 3-Quip 4-Bolt D’Oro 5-Mendelssohn 6-Justify

A very nice looking 6-pack.................could be an exotic box extravaganza..............like them all....................but what Longshot might surprise us come the first Saturday in May ?
 
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Welcome back 11black. Always enjoy your Derby thread every year. For me, about the only good thing on this site anymore. Looks like a pretty good group of 3 year olds with no real standout. Really looking forward to next weeks Arkansas Derby. Magnum Moon, Quip and Solomini are all horses I like and anxious to see how each of them run next week. I thought Good Magic ran a very good race in the Blue Grass and will move forward in his 3rd start of year. Justify looked ok but if Future pool 4 is any indication and he is the favorite, I won’t play him to win at short price. Audible has looked very good also. I thought the best 3 year old so far was McKinzie, but the injury put an end to his chances.

wabash,

how are you my friend................always look forward to this time of year..........

funny you mentioned McKinzie, he also was my top selection..............just an amazing horse, should see much out of him this summer........

will be posting some stats and such next week..................always only for entertainment purposes though................
 
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My $30 investment..... Tri-boxed

If the stars line-up. The 1st Saturday in May.... 5th in 2018 before and after draw I'll try

2-3-4-6-13
for 50 cents. If
"Vino Rosso
" # isn't included <<<< I'll do 6 TBX for $60 and if a grey is running I'll play $10 ATB on the Grey. Who the best on paper isn't always in the winners circle.

I gave up buying a program years ago. Unless you are putting 10,000 to win on the best you should play the rest and hope for the best to lose.....


All hail American Pharoah! The much-ballyhooed, hard-charging colt came away with a win in the 141st Kentucky Derby, narrowly beating out nearest runners-up Firing Line and Dortmund to claim a first-place finish. In other words, it happened the way the odds said it would: the favored American Pharoah made good on the confidence of all those folks who placed bets on him, in front of a record-high television audience. But that isn't as common as you might expect.

How often does the favorite win the Kentucky Derby, would you reckon?


Obviously, for a race with as long a history as the Derby's (the first race was held back in 1875), you're dealing with a lot of numbers. But luckily, there are records on this: 49 out of the 141 Kentucky Derbys have been won by the favorite, just over one-third of the time.


Always a good read eleven 301

Nice way to play...................sometimes when I go to my local track, I will pick 4 numbers and play them in every race the same...................box them in exactas and tris.................no headache that way and enjoyable too.

Best of luck to you, and to us all..........

Be well everyone,
 
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wabash,

how are you my friend................always look forward to this time of year..........

funny you mentioned McKinzie, he also was my top selection..............just an amazing horse, should see much out of him this summer........

will be posting some stats and such next week..................always only for entertainment purposes though................
Hopefully his injury isn’t serious and he will be back for the Preakness. The way he fought back after getting bumped at top of stretch against Bolt showed how tough he is. A shame he got taken down in that race. Looking forward to your data the next few weeks.
 
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I think his connections said he would be out for all of the T Crown races.................................and I agree, he should have never been taken down, they were both bumping.............
 

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Thought I would check back with Eleven !!!

I have Justify at 7-1 in a Future for $20 ... I'm a small timer ....

Something I discovered ...thought I would share .... which does not help my Justify Wager ...LOL !!! Oh well !

Broke down last 18 years...... ( Win/Place/Show/ 4th place Horses ) of the Kentucky Derby and to my surprise ....

35 / 54 that finished in Win / Place or Show Spots or 65 % finished in 4th or worse place the race prior to Kentucky Derby ...

49 Horses that finished 1st/2nd/3rd or 4th place out of 72 or 68% ... Finished in 4th or worse place the race prior to the Kentucky Derby ..

Last Year 2017 3/4 Finished 4th or better in race prior to Derby .... fyi

Summary

65% of all horses that finish 1st / 2nd or 3rd in the Kentucky Derby ...finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...

68% of all horses that finished in the Top 4 Spots .....finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...


Interesting ....


Feel free to add notes / trends to the thread if you have something to share ....
 
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I won't handicap the race until the night before the Derby..... But am hopeful, that I won't come up with a strong favorite. Somehow this feels like a long shot year. Was going to create a new thread asking what software (if any) do you use to handicap the races, but this thread about the Derby will likely get more views and possible responses.
 
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Hello Kaboom,

Summary

65% of all horses that finish 1st / 2nd or 3rd in the Kentucky Derby ...finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...

68% of all horses that finished in the Top 4 Spots .....finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...

Yes, some very interesting stuff.......................

Looking forward to your plays, as always........................spending time watching replay after replay after replay of the prep races and trying to wean this field. There are some ' beasts ' out there this year.......................could the 'Curse of Apollo' be stopped this year ? Could the 'Curse of Dubai" ( as I call it ) also be stopped ?
 

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Hello Kaboom,

Summary

65% of all horses that finish 1st / 2nd or 3rd in the Kentucky Derby ...finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...

68% of all horses that finished in the Top 4 Spots .....finished 4th or worse in their race prior to the Kentucky Derby ...

Yes, some very interesting stuff.......................

Looking forward to your plays, as always........................spending time watching replay after replay after replay of the prep races and trying to wean this field. There are some ' beasts ' out there this year.......................could the 'Curse of Apollo' be stopped this year ? Could the 'Curse of Dubai" ( as I call it ) also be stopped ?


Right now ... I have

03/31
09:38 AM




Future/Prop
Pending
15.00
600.00​
Horse Racing Futures Kentucky Derby Mendelssohn +4000 for To Win The 2018 Kentucky Derby



03/31
09:37 AM



Future/Prop
Pending
10.00
400.00​
Horse Racing Futures Kentucky Derby Mendelssohn +4000 for To Win The 2018 Kentucky Derby



03/31
09:35 AM




Future/Prop
Pending
20.00
800.00​
Horse Racing Futures Kentucky Derby Mendelssohn +4000 for To Win The 2018 Kentucky Derby




Through another casino



3/28/18 11:43am$20.00$140.00Pending3/30/18 12:00pm Other Sports Horses Kentucky Derby - Justify +700*



3/31/18 11:13am$5.00$30.00Pending5/5/18 5:45pm Horses Other Sports 9001 Any horse wins Triple Crown 2018 +600*vs No Triple Crown winner 2018
3/31/18 8:28am$5.00$30.00Pending5/5/18 5:45pm Horses Other Sports 9001 Any horse wins Triple Crown 2018 +600*vs No Triple Crown winner 2018


Adding a few longer shots later in gimmicks


GL !!
 
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:hammerit Here is a little 'tidbit' to say while browsing the net yesterday............................ thanks for the individual that posted it !


Here’s a list of derby field, and the # of horses they’ve faced in career and the number of those horses they beat. All races included
————————————————————————————————-
Good Magic 52/48
Audible 38/36
Noble Indy 32/30
Vino Rosso 41/36
Bolt 54/50
Enticed 61/55
Mendelssohn 65/50
Justify 17/17
Flameaway 86/72
Bravazo 80/54
Promises FF 53/43
Magnum moon 26/26
Runaway ghost 58/52
Quip 42/36
Free Drop Bummy 78/62
Lonely sailor 83/62
Hofburg 30/26
Solomini 44/41
Gronk 54/47
My Boy Jack 92/74


Of course, we have a couple of races this weekend to add to these numbers...........and I do not know exactly what to think about these ( do not know about how they fare up to the past history ), but it is something interesting to see
 
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:howdy: Looks like it is going to be a wide open affair come the first Saturday in May. Should be about 6-8 horses which have a great shot.................just simply a very talented field.

Do not believe that the derby favorite will be better than 4-1 this year, so a great opportunity for wagering. Time to start looking at some simple stuff first. Again these are just certain things I like to 'crunch' together when I am trying to cap this type of a race, being the monster that it is. So take it all in stride, if you will................



“ Entries “ which are familiar with Churchill Downs Surface


- Enticed-------------------------1 ( 1-0-0 )
- Flameaway--------------------1 ( 0-0-0 )
- Bravazo------------------------3 ( 1-0-1 )
- Promises Fulfilled-------------2 ( 1-0-1 )
- Quip----------------------------2 ( 1-0-0 )
- Free Drop Billy----------------1 ( 1-0-0 )
- Lone Sailor--------------------2 ( 0-1-0 )
- Dream Baby Dream----------3 ( 1-0-1 )


“ Entries “ which are familiar with the “ Wet “ stuff


- Enticed..............................1 ( 1-0-0 )
- Justify................................1 ( 1-0-0 )
- Flameaway........................2 ( 2-0-0 )
- Free Drop Billy...................1 ( 0-1-0 )
- Lone Sailor........................1 ( 1-0-0 )
- Firenze Fire.......................2 ( 1-0-0 )
- My Boy Jack......................1 ( 1-0-0 )
- Combatant........................1 ( 0-1-0 )
- Dream Baby Dream...........1 ( 0-0-1 )
- Old Time Revival ..............1 ( 0-1-0 )
 
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popcorn-eatinggif Now the ever so " may mean something, or may mean absolutely nothing ' statistic...............


-----------------------Fastest Time for 1 1/8 Race


- Audible...................................1.49.2
- Vino Rosso..............................1.49.3
- Enticed...................................1.49.3
- Justify....................................1.49.3
- Magnum Moon........................1:49.4
- Dream Baby Dream.................1.49.4
- Hofburg..................................1.50.0
- Good Magic.............................1.50.0
- Quip......................................1:50.0
- Solomini.................................1:50.1
- Noble Indy..............................1.50.1
- Bolt D’ Oro.............................1.50.1
- Flameaway.............................1.50.1
- Lone Sailor..............................1.50.1
- My Boy Jack...........................1.50.2
- Combatant.............................1:50.2
- Restoring Hope.......................1.50.3
- Free Drop Billy.......................1.50.4
- Instilled Regard......................1.51.3
- Firenze Fire...........................1.51.4
- Bravazo.................................1.54.0
- Old Time Revival....................1.54.3
- Promises Fulfilled...................1.56.3


- Gronkowski..............................?
- Mendelssohn............................?




We all know that these times come from many different tangibles, such as different racetracks, different track surfaces, different weather conditions, different jockeys, who had what for breakfast that day.....and so on and so on etc..... But it is simply a number which I like to take a look at.............again, may mean absolutely nothing, but.......................

Be well all........................
 
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The horse I’m starting to like for a longshot play is Hofburg. Ran big in Florida Derby in only his 3rd start after breaking his maiden in previous race. The 2nd place finisher in that maiden win, Just Whistle, came back yesterday and looked very impressive beating a good field at Keeneland. And he will love the added distance. If the pace is fast which I expect it will be, this is the type of horse that can run them all down in the stretch. A definite use in exotics underneath.
 
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The horse I’m starting to like for a longshot play is Hofburg. Ran big in Florida Derby in only his 3rd start after breaking his maiden in previous race. The 2nd place finisher in that maiden win, Just Whistle, came back yesterday and looked very impressive beating a good field at Keeneland. And he will love the added distance. If the pace is fast which I expect it will be, this is the type of horse that can run them all down in the stretch. A definite use in exotics underneath.

I can't agree more...........he is definitely one to put in your exotics and maybe, just maybe.......with all of the bouncing around he can take this...........

This is what we have to wean down, the longshot plays...................................thanks for your input as always
 

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