Best bets for the NBA playoffs

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Best bets for the NBA playoffs
Eric Rynning
ESPN INSIDER


The NBA playoffs can't start soon enough, with teams trying to win and tanking in the rear-view mirror. The postseason features storylines abound with more questions than answers as the mystery unfolds. Still, the 2018 NBA playoffs set up as competitive as any in recent memory.


For starters, it's difficult to envision the odds-on favorite Golden State Warriors (+120 favorite to win the NBA championship, according to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook) steamrolling through the postseason to a 16-1 record in comparison to last year. The Warriors' rough ride through the regular season featured bump after bump, while franchise player Stephen Curry will be on the sidelines at least through the first round. The Warriors trailed the Utah Jazz 103-58 in their regular-season finale, which hardly seems worthy of an NBA champion. However, much like the Cleveland Cavaliers a season ago, the Warriors have the talent to make drastic strides. The worldwide oddsmakers obviously expect the turnaround.

I mentioned the Houston Rockets as a 'value' bet to win the title back in October at 16-1. The Rockets launched in the regular season soaring to 65 wins, while poised as the team I believe wins the championship this year. The bad news the 16-1 odds are long gone with the current Westgate Superbook price at +130.

The Eastern Conference features its own co-favorite race with the regular-season juggernaut Toronto Raptors at 10-1 to win the title and the Cavaliers at 8-1. Note the Eastern Conference championship odds linger with the Raptors +150 and Cavaliers +120. The upstart Philadelphia Sixers are now the third favorite to come out of the East at 4-1 coinciding with their 16-game winning streak entering the playoffs.

Here is a look at four first-round series from a betting perspective.

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No. 7 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 2 Golden State Warriors

Remember when the Spurs were leading the Warriors by 20 points in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals last year? Kawhi Leonard was then lost for that series as the Warriors never looked back to eventually win the NBA championship. Much has changed since these two met a year ago, although the Spurs are expected to be without Leonard once again. Of course, the Warriors expect to be without Curry as I'll call for a competitive series.The Spurs, under outstanding head coach Gregg Popovich of course, are a seasoned, deep group. Their defense remains top notch, finishing third in the regular season in efficiency. Conversely, it's difficult to envision the Warriors hitting the ground running in this series as they rev the engine to the postseason. The chemistry remains aloof, while the Spurs will give nothing away. Expect closer, lower-scoring games in this series.The play: Under the total in the first game, with a look to the Spurs plus the points throughout the series.

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No. 5 Utah Jazz vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder

From the oddsmakers' perspective, this expects to be the most evenly matched series in the first round, while setting up as a slugfest. The Thunder disappointed throughout the campaign while finishing with a 34-47-1 ATS record. This wasn't a total shock with the core of this team coming together in the offseason. Of course, the crucial question lingers if this team can become one in the postseason. I'll bet against it and bet on the red-hot Utah Jazz.The Jazz were amazing down the stretch as their player development is simply top-notch. They closed the season as the top-rated defense in the NBA. Rudy Gobert will loom large in the series, protecting and deterring the rim from Russell Westbrook. Home court will be valuable in this series, but the Jazz steal one in Oklahoma City to win the series.The play: The Jazz to win series at +115

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No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 2 Boston Celtics

It's so arduous to discount this Celtics organization. They essentially overachieved all season long, garnering 55 wins. In addition, they're simply the top ATS team in the NBA with an amazing 50-30-2 run. They ranked second in defensive efficiency in the regular season, while they figure to be the best stop unit in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The well-schooled bunch can game plan for the Bucks' one-man gang in Giannis Antetokounmpo to at least slow down and force to the perimeter as much as possible. The Celtics have intangibles the Bucks just don't possess. A feeling of underachievement led to the ousting of head coach Jason Kidd. Interim Joe Prunty hit some right buttons against a soft schedule before lethargy set in.The play: Take the Celtics -150 to win the series and don't discount them to win the Eastern Conference at 20-1.
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No. 5 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers


Well, the Cavaliers for certain ranked first in one category in the regular season: they finished a dreadful 32-49-1 ATS. Their defensive struggles were the catalyst as they finished the campaign 29th in defensive efficiency! Still, this LeBron James-led franchise flexed their muscle in the East playoffs a year ago, losing just one game. Their defense will improve, and they catch the right matchup against the youthful and inexperienced Pacers in the first round. The upstart Pacers were excellent on their way to 48 regular-season wins. Notice the Pacers finished the season trending under the point total with 49 unders to just 32 overs.The play: Under the point total in the first game and bet the Cavaliers off a loss.
 

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