Why the Braves on Saturday at +160...Don't look now but the young pups from Atlanta are playing some good baseball after winning back to back against the Nats and Cubs. Sean Newcomb will take the ball for the Braves who is coming off of a stellar start against the Rockies IN Colorado where he threw 6 shutout innings allowing 5 hits on 0 BBs and 9 Ks where he picked up a W as a +140 dog. Newcomb's numbers show that you can trust him on the road; in 2017, his road era was 3.89 compared to a 4.57 home era. Newcomb has pitched just once IN Wrigley, coming last August, where he allowed 2 runs through 5 innings on 0 HRs, and 7 Ks. A number that we always like to incorporate into the formula would be day game numbers. In 2017, Newcomb posted a 2.95 era IN day games through 21 innings where he allowed just 1 HR...compared to the 4.69 era that he posted IN night games through 78 innings where he allowed 9 HRs. When combing through Newcomb's saber numbers, notice that the K numbers are staying consistent, yet the BABIP against hasn't starting trending down yet. For the saber people out there, this is purely an extra bloop hit a game. Look for a low BABIP against Newcomb tonight and a quality start. The Cubs will start Jose Quintana who will be making his first home start of the year. Right off the bat, we want to note Quintana's day game numbers. In 2017, he posted a 5.21 era through 86 innings compared to his usual 3.25 era at night. Another note is that Quintana did not enjoy pitching IN Wrigley last year. In 2017, Quintana posted a 4.94 era at home through 89 innings where he allowed 17 HRs compared to the 3.44 road era through 100 innings where he allowed 6 HRs. Going to fade the Cubs pen in this one who had to shoulder a bigger workload last night due to the short start from Darvish. On the season, the Cubs bullpen has a 4.70 home era compared to the Braves 1.05 road bullpen era. Our trend of the day also comes in this afternoon affair where the Braves are bringing a 6-0 day game record.
Play on the Braves at +160
Play on the Braves at +160
