Law: Spring performances help bring draft's first round into focus

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Law: Spring performances help bring draft's first round into focus
Keith Law
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Ethan Hankins came into the spring as my No. 1 prospect for this draft class and was seen within the industry as a consensus top-five pick, bringing the best combination of stuff (with his fastball and curveball) and command in the draft class. He left his first start of the season when his velocity fell off suddenly, missed almost a month with shoulder tightness, and returned to make a few abbreviated starts before Forsyth Central High School’s season ends next week in Georgia. I was at his start on Monday, April 9, and he was OK, but not what he’d been last summer.

Hankins hit 95 mph with his fastball early in the outing and did show a bunch of 94 mph pitches, throwing his fastball at 90-95 over his four innings, although the pitch didn’t have the kind of life it had last year. His curveball backed way up, as it has become a slow roller at 71-75 mph instead of a power breaker in the upper 70s and low 80s, and he throws the pitch just for a change of pace or a get-me-over strike, not as a knockout offering. A few scouts there commented that he threw the curveball “without conviction,” which is an apt description. He didn’t use a changeup in the outing.

Hankins’ delivery has always caused some consternation, but scouts were largely willing to live with it when the stuff was all graded as plus. He’s a short strider with an early release point, both of which are associated with shoulder problems, and he doesn’t get enough power from his legs. A team might take him and try to lengthen his stride, but that entails risk teams wouldn’t likely want to absorb with a high pick. He’s committed to Vanderbilt, a program that has taken good care of pitchers over the past decade-plus and has produced a lot of first-rounders on the mound, so he might prefer to try school rather than signing for a fraction of what we expected him to get a few months ago.

• With the top 100 prospects well-populated with the sons of former big leaguers, including Vlad Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bo Bichette, it appears to be the Age of the Scion in baseball. This year’s draft features an addition to that in Ryan Weathers, the son of David “The Body” Weathers, who pitched for longer than you think (19 seasons) for more teams than you realized (nine, three of them twice). Ryan is a left-handed starter for Loretto High School in Tennessee, and he’s also a shooting guard for the Loretto basketball team, where he just led the school to its first state championship on March 17 and was named the Class A tournament MVP. A few days later he was on a mound, and I was at his fourth start on April 12, against Columbia Academy in Columbia, Tenn.

Weathers overwhelmed the Columbia lineup, striking out 10 in five innings with just one first-inning walk, allowing one real hit and one hit an outfielder lost in the dusk. He pitched at 89-92 mph, working on a rough pitch count of 70, complemented with an above-average curveball at 76-79 mph with good two-plane break, although the spin was inconsistent. He threw just a few changeups, one of which I clocked at 78 mph, but had no real need for the pitch. He’s a command guy, although I would say right now it’s more like 40- or 45-grade major-league command, rather than average; he’s pitching well to regions but not to spots, and he could get away with missing locations against this lineup. I don’t see much projection here, as he’s filled out physically and already has a long stride, but if his command -- which is already very good for a high school pitcher -- continues to improve, you could have a No. 3 starter with two or more above-average pitches. I’d certainly bet on him, given his athleticism and the curveball he already has.

• Ole Miss lefty Ryan Rolison was seen as one of the safest college arms in this draft class, which is generally strong in starting pitching overall, both college and high school. He threw Friday night at Vanderbilt and missed plenty of bats, but he wasn’t sharp and had some trouble with the young Commodores lineup.

Rolison comes way across his body in his delivery, like few starters in the majors right now do, giving him deception against lefties but less than normal against righties. He pitched at 91-94 mph on his fastball while also throwing an above-average curveball at 78-81 mph, and clearly trusted his curveball command over his fastball command, throwing three changeups in total. He struck out eight of 23 batters, throwing 107 pitches in five-plus innings, and was helped by some bad baserunning (two runners caught stealing, one thrown out at third on a wild pitch) and umpires who apparently wouldn’t know a balk if one bit them on the nose.

In this draft class, the only two college starters who have performed consistently throughout the spring so far are Casey Mize at Auburn -- who is the No. 1 prospect in the class -- and Sean Hjelle at Kentucky, who should go in the first round but doesn’t have anything plus in his arsenal.
Rolison has been up and down since SEC conference play began, which might hurt his cause, but as a lefty with two above-average pitches and some success at Ole Miss, he probably still gets taken in the back half of the first round.
 

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