Why the Twins on Wednesday at +105...The Twins come into Wednesday's matchup against the Indians after winning their last 4 of 7 games. During this stretch, the Twinkies are averaging 3.7 RPG with a .229 BA/.326 OBP. On the other side, the Indians come into this game after winning their last 6 of 7 games where they are averaging 4.4 RPG with a .263 BA/.316 OBP. Even though this game is being played on a neutral field, we will still honor the Indians road numbers. This Indians offense comes into Wednesday with below average offensive road numbers. The Indians are averaging just 3.9 RPG with a .184 BA/.263 OBP on the road to go along with their 3-4 road record. The Twins will be sending Jose Berrios to the bump who has had this game circled since the schedule was released. Berrios comes into this game after a dominant start against the White Sox where he allowed 0 runs through 7 innings on 3 hits, 0 BBs and 11 Ks. Berrios is poised for another quality outing tonight after looking further into his saber numbers. Berrios has seen his K/BB ratio rise in each of his three starts as well as holding a BABIP against of .264 in his three starts. In Berrios' last start, he induced GBs at a 50% rate. When going back to Berrios' 2017 numbers, in the five starts following a start where he induced GBs at a 50% rate or higher...Berrios recorded a combined 29 innings where he allowed 13 runs on 9 BBs and 37 Ks. This Indians lineup has a combined 55 ABs off of Berrios with a .182 BA/.237 OBP and 0 HRs. The Indians will be starting Carlos Carrasco who is coming off of back to back quality outings against the below average lineups of the Tigers and Royals with both starts coming at home. When looking at Carrasco's only road start of 2018, he allowed 5 runs through 5 innings on 7 hits and 2 HRs against the Mariners. In Carrasco's last start, he induced GBs at a 61% rate. In 2017, Carrasco made five starts after a start where he induced GBs at a 60% rate of higher. In those following starts, he allowed 21 runs through 29 innings (6.52 era) on 9 BBs and 35 Ks. This current Twins lineup has a combined 149 ABs off of Carrasco with a .275 BA/.335 OBP and 7 HRs coming from five different players. From a bullpen standpoint, going to fade the Indians pen who comes into Wednesday with a 3.98 road era as well as having to use Miller and Allen on Tuesday night for 19 pitches and 30 pitches respectively.
Play on the Twins at +105
Play on the Twins at +105
