Sunday Service Plays 04/22/18

Betallsports · Apr 19, 2018

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bmd1803 · Apr 21, 2018

Maddux

#501 - NBA - 10 units on Boston +5
#502 - NBA - 10 units on Boston & Milwaukee Under 205.5

bmd1803 · Apr 21, 2018

Jimmy Boyd

4* Toronto Raptors -1

bmd1803 · Apr 21, 2018

Dr. Bob
Sunday, April 22

**Boston (+5) over MILWAUKEE

Sunday – 10:05 am Pacific

Milwaukee destroyed Boston in game 3, winning 116-92, but the Celtics are still the better team and there is still significant line value on their side – in addition to being in a very good situation. Boston applies to a 41-8-2 ATS playoff road dog blowout bounce-back situation, as teams that get beaten by 20 points or more tend to play very well in the next game in the series, and teams that win the first two games and then lose game 3 are 26-12 ATS as underdogs of more than 3 points in game 4.

Despite the game 3 result I still believe there has been a market overreaction to the injuries to Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart. Both are good players, but veteran big man Al Horford, 2nd-year man Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum are the top-3 on the team in plus-minus per 48 minutes and those 3 players have a plus-minus of +12.9 points per 48 minutes playing without Irving and Smart this season (+73 points in 271.2 minutes), including +12 points in 61.8 minutes together in this series (+9.3 points per 48 minutes). The bench isn’t as deep due to those two injuries but the overall adjustment for Irving and Smart being out is just ½ a point.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been a below average team since Jabari Parker joined the rotation after missing the first few months of the season. The Bucks have been outscored by 4.6 points per 48 minutes (-76 points in 797.6 minutes) when Parker has been in the game (-12 in the first 3 games of this series) and they’re just 14-20 ATS in the 34 games he’s played in this season, including just 6-14 ATS against teams with a winning record. This is nothing new, as Parker had a plus-minus of -89 points last season while the team was +70 points when he was on the bench. My ratings, based on current rotations, favors Milwaukee by just 1 ½ points and I’ll take the Celtics in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.

*SAN ANTONIO (+7) over Golden State

Sunday – 12:35 pm Pacific

Golden State has dominated this series so far, winning the first 3 games by an average margin of 16.3 points. However, the Warriors have also enjoyed a significant amount of 3-point shooting variance, as they’ve made 41.1% of their 3-pointers while the Spurs have made an abysmal (and very unlucky) 24.0% from beyond the arc. In 2447 minutes this season without Steph Curry on the floor (equivalent to 51 games) the Warriors have made just 36.0% of their 3-point shots, including 35.8% on 3-pointers when both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson were in the game. So, the 41.1% is higher than expected against a better than average Spurs’ defense that allowed 1.2% less than their opponent’s combined season average on 3-point shots. The Spurs are only projected to have made 31.3% of their 3-point shots in those first 3 games but making just 20 of 83 long-range shots in this series is still about 16 points of negative variance. The overall variance in 3-pointers and free-throws (the Spurs have made a higher percentage than expected) in the first three games is 27.7 points, or 9.2 points per game. So, the Warriors’ 16.3 average margin in this series would be just 7.1 points if adjusted for variance – and 5.9 points if also adjusted for two of the three games being played in Oakland. This game is being played in San Antonio and while the Spurs may have lost game 3 here, they did have the league’s third best home record this season (San Antonio’s 33-8 regular season home record was 4 games better than Golden State’s 29-12 home record).

While it’s true that teams down 0-3 in the series tend to not play as well and projected, that tendency is more than reflected in this line. Golden State was only favored by 8 points in game 1 at home and now they’re favored by 7 points on the road against a team that has the league’s third-best home record. Had the Warriors won those first 3 games by an average of 7 points, as they would have without the positive variance, there is no way the line on this game would be as high as it is. I get Golden State by just 4 points even after docking the Spurs 2 points for being down 0-3 games in this series (over 25 years teams down 0-3 have been 1.6 points worse than projected). I’ll take San Antonio in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (Strong Opinion down to +6 points).

Sleez · Apr 22, 2018

Spartan

3*

Indiana -1

Sleez · Apr 22, 2018

Rocky Atkinson

3*

Golden State - 6.5

Sleez · Apr 22, 2018

Stephen nover

3*GOY

Cleveland +1

Sleez · Apr 22, 2018

King creole

2*

San Antonio / Golden State over 203.5

pascal5757 · Apr 22, 2018

Totals 4 You "Total Domination" for Sunday, April 22nd

2018 NBA Playoffs on ABC Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Boston/Milwaukee over 204

Please note: due to the discount, guarantees do not apply to this package

NBA Bets Bets
Golden State/San Antonio over 203 1/2
Toronto/Washington over 218 1/2
Cleveland/Indiana under 205

April's NL East Daytime Dominator of the Month!!!!!
New York/Atlanta under 9

MLB Best Bets
San Diego/Arizona over 7 1/2
Cleveland/Baltimore under 7 1/2
Boston/Oakland over 8 1/2
San Francisco/Los Angeles under 8 1/2

JERSEYKID7 · Apr 22, 2018

tiger from philly

celts under 205

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Anthony Michael

#503 Golden State Warriors -6.5 (3:35 edt) ABC

You saw the first 3 games of this series, just no way the Spurs can hang with the Warriors right now and now add in the turmoil they are experiencing with the whole Leonard situation. Look for the veteran Warriors to be very motivated to close out this series and get healthy before the next round.

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Dave Essler

3* Oakland (+120)

1* Milwaukee. / Boston under 204.5

Lloyd · Apr 22, 2018

[h=3]Trace Adams[/h][h=4]Sunday's Selection ...[/h]For Sunday, Raise The Bar 1500♦ is the Golden State Warriors as the favorite over the San Antonio Spurs. At 10:30 pm eastern time on Saturday, the Warriors are -7 points in Vegas and offshore.

babyj · Apr 22, 2018

Rochestertitans' Team plays
7 straight months over 60% as a team
8-5 Saturday

rtpicks
42-28+70.5 in MLB

Oakland+1.5 runs
rockies over 10
phillies over 8
yankees under 8.5
Marlins+1.5

SSP
Boston under 204.5

ICE
nashville over 6

Harambe
bomb Oakland+1.5
total Bucks under 204.5
1 Spurs+7
2 Phillies ML
mlbD Oakland+130 ML
MLBT reds under 8

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Edward

MLB
Oakland Athletics - Boston Red Sox : Boston -1

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Don Johnson Advantage One System

2 Units: (507) Cleveland Cavaliers -1 8:35 PM ET

2 Units: (919) Kansas City Royals +140 1:10 PM ET

2 Units: (906) Milwaukee Brewers -190 2:10 PM ET

2 Units: (910) Colorado Rockies +120 3:10 PM ET

2 Units: (912) Arizona Diamondbacks -156 4:10 PM ET

2 Units: (927) Boston Red Sox -133 4:05 PM ET

2 Units: (929) San Francisco Giants -105 4:05 PM ET

RobbieGould · Apr 22, 2018

Seabass comp play is Red Sox ml

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Rockdeman Sports

San Antonio Spurs +7

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Paul Leiner

2500* NBA Cavaliers +1
100* NBA Celtics +5
100* MLB Over 9 Brewers/Marlins

bmd1803 · Apr 22, 2018

Jack Jones

15* MLB Undervalued Underdog Pittsburgh Pirates
20* NBA No-Brainer Cleveland +1
15* NBA Early Annihilator Bucks -4.5

Sunday Service Plays 04/22/18

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