MLB Run Lines and Alt Run Lines

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Hi,

Subscribed to a fairly cheap predictive analytics website that daily posts edges based on aggregated data. Nothing fancy, all free information. It's done well for NBA (Regular season - not so much in the Post so far) amazingly well in NHL and so far profitable on MLB. I'll just post them here - not all plays just the ones I put money on. Small potato $5 bets - beisbol is a long trudge.

There will be a lot more losses than wins, but the payouts on wins can sometimes overcome a 1:2 deficit record.

Thanks
 

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4/22

Pirates -1.5 +200 5 to win 10
Blue Jays -1.5 +350 5 to win 17.50
Mets -1.5 +175 5 to win 8.75
Astros -1.5 -135 6.75 to win 5
Cubs -1.5 +120 5 to win 6.5
 

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So why not post "all plays?" How many were there all together day?

Thanks for sharing.
 

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So why not post "all plays?" How many were there all together day?

Thanks for sharing.

Since it's an automated tool - it lines every game.
The % advantage ranges from 0.01% to 5% so I'm trying to find what the sweet spot range for plays. Using the backtest tool from all plays since 3/29/2018 it's broke down as following:

1%+ Won: 79 Lost: 105 Total units: 28.72 ROI: 15.27%
2%+ Won: 63 Lost: 80 Total units: 25.11 ROI: 17.18%
3%+ Won: 48 Lost: 60 Total units: 21.76 ROI: 19.73%
4%+ Won: 34 Lost: 46 Total units: 11.12 ROI: 13.51%
5%+ Won: 22 Lost: 23 Total units: 16.67 ROI: 36.06%

So for me it looks like 3%-5% is the best advantage with a dip in chance at 4% for some reason or another. So the ones I'll put money on are $5 on 3-4.99% and $10 on 5%+ with a hard pass on any lined below that.
 

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4/23

Twins -1.5 (+300) 5 to win 15
Indians -1.5 (-112) 6.05 to win 5

Maybe more MLB later


And just a personal play - doesn't get much better than playoff hockey.
NHL Parlay - Bruins + Blue Jackets ML 10 to win 23.78
 

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4/23 Adding

Mariners -1.5 (+105) 5 to win 5.25
Angels -1.5 (+280) 5 to win 14
Athletics -1.5 (+107) 5 to win 5.35

Should note I don't shop lines like I should and all the values are derived from BetDSI at the time of posting.

:toast:
 

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4/23


Twins -1.5 (+300) 5 to win 15
Indians -1.5 (-112) 6.05 to win 5
Mariners -1.5 (+105) 5 to win 5.25

Angels -1.5 (+280) 5 to win 14
Athletics -1.5 (+107) 5 to win 5.35



Totally bombed the hockey parlay. Frederik Andersen is playing next level for the Leafs.

4W-5L-0P
+4.8 Beer Money
 

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4/24

Reds -1.5 (+205) 10 to win 20.50
Red Sox -1.5 (+148) 5 to win 7.40
Pirates -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75
Athletics -1.5 (+140) 5 to win 7
Brewers -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75

Maybe more later

Thanks
 

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4/24

Reds -1.5 (+205) 10 to win 20.50
Red Sox -1.5 (+148) 5 to win 7.40
Pirates -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75 Postponed (Seems like a lot of these?)
Athletics -1.5 (+140) 5 to win 7
Brewers -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75

Maybe more later

Thanks

6W-7L-0P
+21.05 Beer Money
 

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4/25

Made these plays as they came up, but work got crazy and I didn't post here. They are currently in progress (Mariners and Angels)

Screenshot with time stamp:
iZbaSTM

iZbaSTM
https://imgur.com/a/iZbaSTM

Mariners -1.5 (+110) 5 to win 5.50
Angels -1.5 (+305) 5 to win 15.25
Braves -1.5 (+145) 5 to win 7.25
Padres -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11.00

Maybe more later

Thanks
 

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4/25 Adding

Twins -1.5 (+240) 5 to win 12
Cubs -1.5 (+190) 5 to win 9.50
Red Sox -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75
 

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4/25 Adding

Marlins -1.5 (+575) 5 to win 28.75

It's a long shot, but it's baseball... they could get to Kershaw :toast:
 

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4/25
Mariners -1.5 (+110) 5 to win 5.50
Angels -1.5 (+305) 5 to win 15.25
Braves -1.5 (+145) 5 to win 7.25
Padres -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11.00
Twins -1.5 (+240) 5 to win 12
Cubs -1.5 (+190) 5 to win 9.50
Red Sox -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75

Marlins -1.5 (+575) 5 to win 28.75

7W-14L-0P
+14.80 Beer Money
 

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4/26

Brewers -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11
White Sox -1.5 (+225) 5 to win 11.25

Maybe more later

Thanks
 

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DosEquis153: Interesting to see someone else taking Dogs, as Minus 1.5, instead of Plus 1.5, I've been doing that all season, and it has been very rewarding. Best of Luck.
 

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DosEquis153: Please keep these picks coming. White Sox got it done and the Brewers were very competitive in their game against the Cubs. A few more winners and we'll crown you "the most interesting new baseball handicapper in the world" in honor of the beer.
 

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DosEquis153: Interesting to see someone else taking Dogs, as Minus 1.5, instead of Plus 1.5, I've been doing that all season, and it has been very rewarding. Best of Luck.

DosEquis153: Please keep these picks coming. White Sox got it done and the Brewers were very competitive in their game against the Cubs. A few more winners and we'll crown you "the most interesting new baseball handicapper in the world" in honor of the beer.

:toast: Thanks gents
 

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