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Thread: MLB Run Lines and Alt Run Lines

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  1. #1 MLB Run Lines and Alt Run Lines 
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    Hi,

    Subscribed to a fairly cheap predictive analytics website that daily posts edges based on aggregated data. Nothing fancy, all free information. It's done well for NBA (Regular season - not so much in the Post so far) amazingly well in NHL and so far profitable on MLB. I'll just post them here - not all plays just the ones I put money on. Small potato $5 bets - beisbol is a long trudge.

    There will be a lot more losses than wins, but the payouts on wins can sometimes overcome a 1:2 deficit record.

    Thanks
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  2. #2  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/22

    Pirates -1.5 +200 5 to win 10
    Blue Jays -1.5 +350 5 to win 17.50
    Mets -1.5 +175 5 to win 8.75
    Astros -1.5 -135 6.75 to win 5
    Cubs -1.5 +120 5 to win 6.5
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by dosequis153 View Post
    4/22

    pirates -1.5 +200 5 to win 10
    blue jays -1.5 +350 5 to win 17.50
    mets -1.5 +175 5 to win 8.75 postponed
    astros -1.5 -135 6.75 to win 5
    cubs -1.5 +120 5 to win 6.5
    2W-2L-0P
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  4. #4  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
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    So why not post "all plays?" How many were there all together day?

    Thanks for sharing.
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  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by varkeyboy View Post
    So why not post "all plays?" How many were there all together day?

    Thanks for sharing.
    Since it's an automated tool - it lines every game.
    The % advantage ranges from 0.01% to 5% so I'm trying to find what the sweet spot range for plays. Using the backtest tool from all plays since 3/29/2018 it's broke down as following:

    1%+ Won: 79 Lost: 105 Total units: 28.72 ROI: 15.27%
    2%+ Won: 63 Lost: 80 Total units: 25.11 ROI: 17.18%
    3%+ Won: 48 Lost: 60 Total units: 21.76 ROI: 19.73%
    4%+ Won: 34 Lost: 46 Total units: 11.12 ROI: 13.51%
    5%+ Won: 22 Lost: 23 Total units: 16.67 ROI: 36.06%

    So for me it looks like 3%-5% is the best advantage with a dip in chance at 4% for some reason or another. So the ones I'll put money on are $5 on 3-4.99% and $10 on 5%+ with a hard pass on any lined below that.
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  6. #6  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/23

    Twins -1.5 (+300) 5 to win 15
    Indians -1.5 (-112) 6.05 to win 5

    Maybe more MLB later


    And just a personal play - doesn't get much better than playoff hockey.
    NHL Parlay - Bruins + Blue Jackets ML 10 to win 23.78
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  7. #7  
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    4/23 Adding

    Mariners -1.5 (+105) 5 to win 5.25
    Angels -1.5 (+280) 5 to win 14
    Athletics -1.5 (+107) 5 to win 5.35

    Should note I don't shop lines like I should and all the values are derived from BetDSI at the time of posting.

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  8. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DosEquis153 View Post
    4/23


    Twins -1.5 (+300) 5 to win 15
    Indians -1.5 (-112) 6.05 to win 5
    Mariners -1.5 (+105) 5 to win 5.25

    Angels -1.5 (+280) 5 to win 14
    Athletics -1.5 (+107) 5 to win 5.35



    Totally bombed the hockey parlay. Frederik Andersen is playing next level for the Leafs.
    4W-5L-0P
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  9. #9  
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    Interesting, been watching. Like your idea.
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  10. #10  
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    4/24

    Reds -1.5 (+205) 10 to win 20.50
    Red Sox -1.5 (+148) 5 to win 7.40
    Pirates -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75
    Athletics -1.5 (+140) 5 to win 7
    Brewers -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75

    Maybe more later

    Thanks
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DosEquis153 View Post
    4/24

    Reds -1.5 (+205) 10 to win 20.50
    Red Sox -1.5 (+148) 5 to win 7.40
    Pirates -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75 Postponed (Seems like a lot of these?)
    Athletics -1.5 (+140) 5 to win 7
    Brewers -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75

    Maybe more later

    Thanks

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  12. #12  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/25

    Made these plays as they came up, but work got crazy and I didn't post here. They are currently in progress (Mariners and Angels)

    Screenshot with time stamp:

    https://imgur.com/a/iZbaSTM

    Mariners -1.5 (+110) 5 to win 5.50
    Angels -1.5 (+305) 5 to win 15.25
    Braves -1.5 (+145) 5 to win 7.25
    Padres -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11.00

    Maybe more later

    Thanks
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  13. #13  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/25 Adding

    Twins -1.5 (+240) 5 to win 12
    Cubs -1.5 (+190) 5 to win 9.50
    Red Sox -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75
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  14. #14  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/25 Adding

    Marlins -1.5 (+575) 5 to win 28.75

    It's a long shot, but it's baseball... they could get to Kershaw
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DosEquis153 View Post
    4/25
    Mariners -1.5 (+110) 5 to win 5.50
    Angels -1.5 (+305) 5 to win 15.25
    Braves -1.5 (+145) 5 to win 7.25
    Padres -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11.00
    Twins -1.5 (+240) 5 to win 12
    Cubs -1.5 (+190) 5 to win 9.50
    Red Sox -1.5 (+115) 5 to win 5.75

    Marlins -1.5 (+575) 5 to win 28.75
    7W-14L-0P
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  16. #16  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/26

    Brewers -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11
    White Sox -1.5 (+225) 5 to win 11.25

    Maybe more later

    Thanks
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  17. #17  
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    DosEquis153: Interesting to see someone else taking Dogs, as Minus 1.5, instead of Plus 1.5, I've been doing that all season, and it has been very rewarding. Best of Luck.
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  18. #18  
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    DosEquis153: Please keep these picks coming. White Sox got it done and the Brewers were very competitive in their game against the Cubs. A few more winners and we'll crown you "the most interesting new baseball handicapper in the world" in honor of the beer.
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  19. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DosEquis153 View Post
    4/26

    Brewers -1.5 (+220) 5 to win 11
    White Sox -1.5 (+225) 5 to win 11.25

    Maybe more later

    Thanks
    8W-15L-0P
    +21.05 Beer Money
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  20. #20  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMD252 View Post
    DosEquis153: Interesting to see someone else taking Dogs, as Minus 1.5, instead of Plus 1.5, I've been doing that all season, and it has been very rewarding. Best of Luck.
    Quote Originally Posted by gander1 View Post
    DosEquis153: Please keep these picks coming. White Sox got it done and the Brewers were very competitive in their game against the Cubs. A few more winners and we'll crown you "the most interesting new baseball handicapper in the world" in honor of the beer.
    Thanks gents
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  21. #21  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    4/27

    Brewers -1.5 (+265) 5 to win 13.25

    Maybe more later

    Thanks

    Edit: Also just a fun side bet I have Jets +135 ML for Playoff Hockey
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  22. #22  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DosEquis153 View Post
    Brewers -1.5 (+265) 5 to win 13.25
    4/27 Adding

    Dbacks -1.5 (+235) 5 to win 11.75
    Brewers -1.5 (+265) 5 to win 13.25
    Athletics -1.5 (+235) 5 to win 11.75
    Cardinals -1.5 (+125) 5 to win 6.25
    Blue Jays -1.5 (+140) 5 to win 7.00
    Royals -1.5 (+163) 5 to win 8.15
    Rockies -1.5 (+125) 5 to win 6.25
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  23. #23  
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    Maybe a few too many plays. Agree with picking what you like
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  24. #24  
    RX Member DosEquis153's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by finite View Post
    Maybe a few too many plays. Agree with picking what you like
    Yea kind of feel the same. I don't like having so much bankroll exposure per day. I may see how cutting out favorite run line looks. I'm only using 0.5% unit size bets until I find a good edge moving forward
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  25. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DosEquis153 View Post
    4/27 Adding

    Dbacks -1.5 (+235) 5 to win 11.75
    Brewers -1.5 (+265) 5 to win 13.25

    Athletics -1.5 (+235) 5 to win 11.75
    Cardinals -1.5 (+125) 5 to win 6.25
    Blue Jays -1.5 (+140) 5 to win 7.00
    Royals -1.5 (+163) 5 to win 8.15
    Rockies -1.5 (+125) 5 to win 6.25
    9W-21L-0P
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