Given the average field size and takeout%, we can project what should be the average winning odds.
AveWinOdds = (FieldSize*(1-Takeout))-1
So, 10-horse fields with no takeout should average 9.0 win odds, and 10-horse fields with 20% take should average 7.0 win odds.
Using the same formula, we can extrapolate the total rake (or projected takeout) using actual win odds and fieldsizes and determine the "Rake and Take" difference.
Takeout = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)
or for our purposes,
TotalRake = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)
Presuming all the math is right, the chart below shows Total Rake, Track Takeout, and difference.
Inflated Rake is result of winning underlays (or returns below expected).
THIS CHART IS COMPILED FROM THE YEAR 2016. SAMPLE SIZES BELOW 200 RACES SHOULD BE VIEWED DISCRIMINATELY.
AveWinOdds = (FieldSize*(1-Takeout))-1
So, 10-horse fields with no takeout should average 9.0 win odds, and 10-horse fields with 20% take should average 7.0 win odds.
Using the same formula, we can extrapolate the total rake (or projected takeout) using actual win odds and fieldsizes and determine the "Rake and Take" difference.
Takeout = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)
or for our purposes,
TotalRake = 1-((AveWinOdds+1)/FieldSize)
Presuming all the math is right, the chart below shows Total Rake, Track Takeout, and difference.
Inflated Rake is result of winning underlays (or returns below expected).
THIS CHART IS COMPILED FROM THE YEAR 2016. SAMPLE SIZES BELOW 200 RACES SHOULD BE VIEWED DISCRIMINATELY.
| Track | Sample Size | Average Fieldsize | Average WinOdds | Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize) | Total Rake | Track Takeout | Rake minus Takeout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALBUQUERQUE | 310 | 7.6 | 4.93 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.19 | $0.03 |
| ARLINGTON(dirt) | 341 | 7.1 | 4.72 | $0.81 | $0.19 | $0.17 | $0.02 |
| ARLINGTON(turf) | 248 | 8.0 | 4.09 | $0.63 | $0.37 | $0.17 | $0.20 |
| ARAPAHOE PARK | 247 | 7.8 | 4.01 | $0.64 | $0.36 | $0.19 | $0.17 |
| AQUEDUCT(dirt) | 261 | 7.2 | 4.92 | $0.82 | $0.18 | $0.16 | $0.02 |
| AQUEDUCT(turf) | 97 | 9.6 | 5.90 | $0.72 | $0.28 | $0.16 | $0.02 |
| AQUEDUCT(inner) | 449 | 7.3 | 4.81 | $0.79 | $0.21 | $0.16 | $0.05 |
| BELMONT(dirt) | 459 | 7.1 | 4.97 | $0.85 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +$0.01 |
| BELMONT(turf) | 391 | 8.7 | 5.58 | $0.76 | $0.24 | $0.16 | $0.08 |
| BELTERRA(dirt) | 690 | 7.4 | 4.15 | $0.70 | $0.30 | $0.18 | $0.12 |
| CANTERBURY(dirt) | 369 | 7.4 | 4.12 | $0.69 | $0.31 | $0.15 | $0.16 |
| CANTERBURY(turf) | 146 | 8.5 | 5.17 | $0.73 | $0.27 | $0.15 | $0.12 |
| CHURCHILL(dirt) | 567 | 8.2 | 4.91 | $0.72 | $0.28 | $0.17 | $0.11 |
| CHURCHILL(turf) | 126 | 9.6 | 5.78 | $0.71 | $0.29 | $0.17 | $0.12 |
| CHARLESTOWN | 1365 | 7.7 | 4.66 | $0.73 | $0.27 | $0.17 | $0.10 |
| DELTA DOWNS | 790 | 8.5 | 5.72 | $0.79 | $0.21 | $0.17 | $0.04 |
| DELAWARE(dirt) | 517 | 6.8 | 4.36 | $0.79 | $0.21 | $0.17 | $0.04 |
| DELAWARE(turf) | 146 | 8.9 | 4.65 | $0.64 | $0.36 | $0.17 | $0.19 |
| DEL MAR(dirt) | 306 | 8.0 | 4.96 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.15 | $0.10 |
| DEL MAR(turf) | 160 | 9.2 | 6.32 | $0.80 | $0.20 | $0.15 | $0.05 |
| Track | Sample Size | Average Fieldsize | Average WinOdds | Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize) | Total Rake | Track Takeout | Rake minus Takeout |
| ELLIS(dirt) | 148 | 7.6 | 5.04 | $0.79 | $0.21 | $0.17 | $0.04 |
| ELLIS(turf) | 111 | 8.6 | 4.39 | $0.62 | $0.38 | $0.17 | $0.21 |
| EMERALD DOWNS | 577 | 7.4 | 4.71 | $0.77 | $0.23 | $0.16 | $0.07 |
| EVANGELINE(dirt) | 660 | 8.2 | 4.87 | $0.71 | $0.29 | $0.17 | $0.12 |
| FORT ERIE(dirt) | 209 | 6.6 | 3.82 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.17 | $0.09 |
| FORT ERIE(turf) | 95 | 8.0 | 4.96 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.17 | $0.08 |
| FAIRGROUNDS(dirt) | 472 | 7.8 | 5.08 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.17 | $0.05 |
| FAIRGROUNDS(turf) | 218 | 9.3 | 5.17 | $0.66 | $0.34 | $0.17 | $0.17 |
| FINGER LAKES | 1323 | 6.7 | 4.05 | $0.76 | $0.24 | $0.18 | $0.06 |
| FONNER | 273 | 7.6 | 4.72 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.18 | $0.07 |
| FAIRMOUNT | 286 | 6.7 | 3.25 | $0.63 | $0.37 | $0.17 | $0.20 |
| GOLDEN GATE(dirt) | 962 | 6.8 | 4.28 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.15 | $0.07 |
| GOLDEN GATE(turf) | 199 | 7.6 | 6.16 | $0.94 | $0.06 | $0.15 | +$0.09 |
| GULFSTREAM(dirt) | 986 | 7.7 | 4.87 | $0.76 | $0.24 | $0.17 | $0.07 |
| GULFSTREAM(turf) | 1027 | 8.9 | 5.86 | $0.77 | $0.23 | $0.17 | $0.06 |
| GULFSTREAM WEST(dirt) | 179 | 7.5 | 4.87 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.17 | $0.05 |
| GULFSTREAM WEST(turf) | 167 | 8.7 | 5.51 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.17 | $0.08 |
| HAWTHORNE(dirt) | 467 | 7.4 | 4.14 | $0.69 | $0.31 | $0.17 | $0.14 |
| HAZEL PARK | 283 | 6.5 | 3.84 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.17 | $0.09 |
| HASTINGS | 385 | 6.9 | 4.64 | $0.81 | $0.19 | $0.15 | $0.04 |
| Track | Sample Size | Average Fieldsize | Average WinOdds | Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize) | Total Rake | Track Takeout | Rake minus Takeout |
| INDIANA(dirt) | 784 | 8.2 | 5.41 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.18 | $0.04 |
| INDIANA(turf) | 175 | 9.0 | 6.79 | $0.86 | $0.14 | $0.18 | +$0.04 |
| KEENELAND(dirt) | 217 | 8.1 | 4.93 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.16 | $0.10 |
| KEENELAND(turf) | 82 | 10.5 | 7.82 | $0.84 | $0.16 | $0.16 | $0.00 |
| KENTUCKY DOWNS | 41 | 11.0 | 6.30 | $0.67 | $0.33 | $0.16 | $0.17 |
| LOUISIANA(dirt) | 414 | 7.7 | 5.02 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.16 | $0.05 |
| LOUISIANA(turf) | 173 | 8.6 | 5.16 | $0.72 | $0.28 | $0.17 | $0.11 |
| LOS ALAMITOS | 270 | 7.3 | 5.04 | $0.83 | $0.17 | $0.15 | $0.02 |
| LAUREL(dirt) | 705 | 8.0 | 5.41 | $0.80 | $0.20 | $0.18 | $0.02 |
| LAUREL(turf) | 379 | 9.8 | 7.25 | $0.84 | $0.16 | $0.18 | +$0.02 |
| LONE STAR(dirt) | 320 | 7.5 | 3.77 | $0.63 | $0.37 | $0.18 | $0.20 |
| LONE STAR(turf) | 129 | 9.0 | 4.82 | $0.65 | $0.35 | $0.18 | $0.17 |
| MOUNTAINEER(dirt) | 1222 | 7.1 | 4.04 | $0.71 | $0.29 | $0.17 | $0.12 |
| MOUNTAINEER(turf) | 193 | 7.9 | 5.22 | $0.79 | $0.21 | $0.17 | $0.04 |
| MONMOUTH(dirt) | 392 | 6.8 | 3.58 | $0.67 | $0.33 | $0.17 | $0.16 |
| MONMOUTH(turf) | 167 | 8.4 | 4.38 | $0.64 | $0.36 | $0.17 | $0.19 |
| MAHONING VALLEY | 755 | 8.8 | 5.50 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.18 | $0.08 |
| NORTHLANDS | 498 | 6.8 | 4.56 | $0.82 | $0.18 | $0.15 | $0.03 |
| OAKLAWN PARK | 452 | 9.5 | 6.13 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.17 | $0.08 |
| Track | Sample Size | Average Fieldsize | Average WinOdds | Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize) | Total Rake | Track Takeout | Rake minus Takeout |
| PENN NATIONAL(dirt) | 1353 | 7.4 | 4.26 | $0.72 | $0.28 | $0.17 | $0.11 |
| PENN NATIONAL(turf) | 118 | 8.5 | 6.08 | $0.83 | $0.17 | $0.17 | $0.00 |
| PRESQUE ISLE | 796 | 7.3 | 4.78 | $0.79 | $0.21 | $0.17 | $0.04 |
| PIMLICO(dirt) | 132 | 7.2 | 4.41 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.18 | $0.07 |
| PIMLICO(turf) | 120 | 9.0 | 5.77 | $0.76 | $0.24 | $0.18 | $0.06 |
| PLEASANTON | 140 | 7.1 | 4.36 | $0.76 | $0.24 | $0.17 | $0.07 |
| PORTLAND MEADOWS | 276 | 7.3 | 4.98 | $0.81 | $0.19 | $0.18 | $0.01 |
| PRAIRIE MEADOWS | 593 | 7.0 | 4.20 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.17 | $0.09 |
| PARX(dirt) | 1409 | 7.9 | 5.45 | $0.81 | $0.19 | $0.17 | $0.02 |
| PARX(turf) | 90 | 9.0 | 5.57 | $0.73 | $0.27 | $0.17 | $0.10 |
| REMINGTON(dirt) | 487 | 8.5 | 5.58 | $0.78 | $0.22 | $0.18 | $0.04 |
| REMINGTON(turf) | 116 | 8.9 | 5.74 | $0.76 | $0.24 | $0.18 | $0.06 |
| RUIDOSO | 165 | 6.7 | 3.95 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.19 | $0.07 |
| SAM HOUSTON(dirt) | 138 | 7.8 | 5.27 | $0.81 | $0.19 | $0.18 | $0.01 |
| SANTA ANITA(dirt) | 746 | 7.4 | 4.26 | $0.71 | $0.29 | $0.15 | $0.14 |
| SANTA ANITA(turf) | 262 | 9.1 | 6.70 | $0.85 | $0.15 | $0.15 | $0.00 |
| SARATOGA(dirt) | 213 | 7.5 | 5.06 | $0.81 | $0.19 | $0.16 | $0.03 |
| SARATOGA(turf) | 162 | 9.0 | 5.75 | $0.75 | $0.25 | $0.16 | $0.09 |
| SUNRAY | 174 | 7.4 | 4.50 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.19 | $0.07 |
| Track | Sample Size | Average Fieldsize | Average WinOdds | Average Return (WinOdds+1/Fieldsize) | Total Rake | Track Takeout | Rake minus Takeout |
| SUNLAND PARK | 391 | 8.2 | 5.56 | $0.80 | $0.20 | $0.19 | $0.01 |
| TAMPA BAY(dirt) | 539 | 8.2 | 5.28 | $0.77 | $0.23 | $0.17 | $0.06 |
| TAMPA BAY(turf) | 261 | 9.2 | 5.87 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.17 | $0.09 |
| THISTLEDOWNS | 791 | 7.4 | 4.14 | $0.70 | $0.30 | $0.18 | $0.12 |
| TURFWAY | 516 | 8.4 | 5.44 | $0.77 | $0.23 | $0.17 | $0.06 |
| TURF PARADISE(dirt) | 669 | 7.7 | 4.21 | $0.68 | $0.32 | $0.21 | $0.11 |
| TURF PARADISE(turf) | 207 | 7.9 | 4.11 | $0.65 | $0.35 | $0.21 | $0.14 |
| WOODBINE(dirt) | 1006 | 8.3 | 5.43 | $0.77 | $0.23 | $0.15 | $0.08 |
| WOODBINE(turf) | 228 | 8.8 | 5.74 | $0.77 | $0.23 | $0.15 | $0.08 |
| WILL ROGERS DOWNS | 271 | 7.6 | 4.63 | $0.74 | $0.26 | $0.18 | $0.08 |
| ZIA PARK | 197 | 7.7 | 4.53 | $0.71 | $0.29 | $0.19 | $0.10 |
