2018-19 football picks

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niners +5 1100-1000

getting this line early, think it will end up around 3.5 or 4.
this pick is a mix of garapolo love, shanahan love, and vikings losing shurmur and keenum in the off season. dalvin cook might not be as explosive coming off acl surgury. i think niners have a real shot at winning and at the very least keeping it close.
 
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Giants +3.5 1100-1000
jags regress this yr, no business being favored on the road. No coughlin revenge!

Dolphins +1.5 1100-1000
another home dog here. I just don’t think the titans are good at all, Mariotta is not a franchise qb IMO
 
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recap 1-2 -1200
 

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Week 2 picks
miami +3 1200-1000
jets off a amazing Monday night win in darnold debut, now the rookie has to turn around on a short week and play a division rival. Jets secondary got banged up. I’ll take the points
 

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giants/cowboys under 42 1100-1000

both offenses pretty anemic, i think even when either of these teams score it will be at the end of time consuming drives.
 

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geez, line is now 42.5. should have waited 2 more minutes to put my bet in LOL
 

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week 2 recap: 2-0 2000
ytd: 3-2 +800
 

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week 3 picks
browns -3 1100-1000
fading the darnold on a short week again. really bad schedule setup for darnold to start the season. he got a monday night game to start his career and his defense carried the team to an amazing win in front of a national audience, then short week game the following sunday, now even shorter week for a thursday night game. he hasn't had a regular week of practice yet! i don't think he played a thursday night game during his USC career either. browns finally win a game.
 

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giants/texans under 44 1100-1000
 

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Week 3 recap 1-1 -100
ytd 4-3 +700
 

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Week 3
rams -7 1100-1000
too much talk about how vikings were looking ahead. Think they are just outmanned here. I’m jumping on with the public on this one
 

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Miami plus 6.5 1100-1000
seems like all the podcasts and talking heads are saying don’t count pats out, they’ve never lost 3 in a row, remember they got smoked by the chiefs and then went to Cinci and killed them etc.
im just going to trust my eyes and I see a major disparity in team speed. There’s been cluster losses in the skill players supply in ne and now Brady is really old. Maybe they can win the game but with 6.5 points I’m all over the dolphins. Tannehill will keep drives alive with his legs if he needs to and shouldn’t have any probs since pats d is painfully slow
 

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Week 3
rams -7 1100-1000
too much talk about how vikings were looking ahead. Think they are just outmanned here. I’m jumping on with the public on this one

this was supposed to say week 4, but pushed anyway so doesn't matter.
 

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Miami plus 6.5 1100-1000
seems like all the podcasts and talking heads are saying don’t count pats out, they’ve never lost 3 in a row, remember they got smoked by the chiefs and then went to Cinci and killed them etc.
im just going to trust my eyes and I see a major disparity in team speed. There’s been cluster losses in the skill players supply in ne and now Brady is really old. Maybe they can win the game but with 6.5 points I’m all over the dolphins. Tannehill will keep drives alive with his legs if he needs to and shouldn’t have any probs since pats d is painfully slow

another week 4 play

colts pk 1100-1000
people are making a big deal about brissett coming in to throw the hail mary, i didn't see that as a big issue.

secondly, seems like everyone in the off season and so far into this season is thinking deshaun watson is a top 10 qb all because he had a crazy 6 or 7 game run statistically in which his team was 3-3 or something unimpressive like that. watched the giants/texans game and he didn't seem hampered at all as far as his knee. i'm just not buying into "running qbs". they may have initial success but they never pan out. only running qb that has had any real success since 1985 when i started watching football is steve young. don't tell me vick. he won one playoff game in his entire career and falcons became good when he left and matt ryan took over. roddy white was nobody until vick left.

thirdly, i'm tired of hearing about jj watt, clowney, and merciless. watt is on the back nine, he had 3 sacks but that was against the giants putrid o line and the most immobile qb in the league (manning). clowney has never lived up to his potential and is perpetually injured. he's one of those guys that looks good getting off the bus. merciless, my only memories of his are that there are none. i am told he is good but never have seen it. admittedly, i don't watch much texan football. this supposedly good texan defense is only good because of the division it plays in. the qb's they plays twice a year are blake bortles, mariotta, and luck (who didn't play last yr). whenever they play a decent offense they don't seem to have such an awesome defense.

dont get me wrong, the colts are nothing special either, but they are at home with a sneaky good defense and the better qb/coach combo. hence, my money is going on them.
 

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week 4 recap 0-2 -2200
ytd 4-5 -1500
 

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Week 5 picks
pats colts under 51 1150-1000
short week, colts played ot don’t have a running game. I think score will be in the 27-17 range

steelers -3 1200-1000
atl outside might slow down their offense. Many starters out for atl. Steelers win 38-31
 

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jets +1 1100-1000
short week and travel for broncos. case keenum and darnold balance each other out on the turnovers. jets homefield gives them the edge at home. finally, in the pool with 48 people in it only 6 people chose the jets.

lions -1 1100-1000
more offensive weapons and at home. rodgers doing it all by himself and gb defense is absolutely horrific. the shutout of bill last week makes they stats look way better than they really are.
 

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week 5 recap 3-1 +2850

ytd 7-6 +1350
 

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