When will the top-tier KHL prospects arrive in the NHL?
Chris PetersESPN INSIDER
When dealing with Russian prospects, specifically the ones who don't come to North America before their draft seasons, "patience" is the key word. The unpredictability can be at times confounding or even frustrating. Whatever the case, this is not something that'll change any time soon.
For that reason, there are some NHL clubs that are going to be more hesitant to draft Russians where their talent suggests they should be selected. There's enough risk in projecting players, but there's an entirely different level of risk if there's a question of whether they'll ever sign.There were only 34 Russian skaters in the NHL last season, but five of the NHL's top 20 scorers hail from that country. Fourteen of the Russians in the NHL had at least 30 points last season as well. Teams will continue making gambles on these players in the draft.The safety net is that once a player is drafted out of the Russian system, the team basically holds his draft rights in perpetuity due to the lack of a formal player agreement between the NHL and KHL. When that player wants to come over, if he ever does, his options are often limited to the team that drafted him, unless a trade can be made.There are quite a few intriguing prospects who recently completed their KHL seasons and are worth tracking a little more closely. Some are under KHL contract for a few more years, and while it used to be moderately common for a player to buy out the remainder of his contract to bolt to the NHL, it is my understanding that is no longer a viable option in most cases. Therefore, we're seeing more players stay in Russia longer than they might have in the past.Here's a look at seven players whom I find particularly notable, with some estimates on when we might see them in the NHL.
For that reason, there are some NHL clubs that are going to be more hesitant to draft Russians where their talent suggests they should be selected. There's enough risk in projecting players, but there's an entirely different level of risk if there's a question of whether they'll ever sign.There were only 34 Russian skaters in the NHL last season, but five of the NHL's top 20 scorers hail from that country. Fourteen of the Russians in the NHL had at least 30 points last season as well. Teams will continue making gambles on these players in the draft.The safety net is that once a player is drafted out of the Russian system, the team basically holds his draft rights in perpetuity due to the lack of a formal player agreement between the NHL and KHL. When that player wants to come over, if he ever does, his options are often limited to the team that drafted him, unless a trade can be made.There are quite a few intriguing prospects who recently completed their KHL seasons and are worth tracking a little more closely. Some are under KHL contract for a few more years, and while it used to be moderately common for a player to buy out the remainder of his contract to bolt to the NHL, it is my understanding that is no longer a viable option in most cases. Therefore, we're seeing more players stay in Russia longer than they might have in the past.Here's a look at seven players whom I find particularly notable, with some estimates on when we might see them in the NHL.
The most intriguing Russian not currently in the NHL is Kaprizov. His standout performances at the 2017 World Junior Championships and the 2018 Olympics, in which he scored Russia's golden goal, have allowed the world to see what a special talent he is. Unfortunately, the NHL is not going to see him for a few more years. Kaprizov remains under contract with CSKA through the 2019-20 season.To me, he's one of the best prospects in hockey, and he would immediately help the Wild if he came over. Alas, the wait continues. The good news is that Kaprizov will still be only 23 when he'd be available to sign. He'll have plenty of good years left in him and will still be eligible to sign an entry-level contract to give the Wild some cost control. Whenever Chuck Fletcher's replacement at general manager is hired, trying to establish and maintain a good working relationship with Kaprizov should be among the priorities.Kaprizov is unquestionably an elite prospect, providing massive value as a fifth-round draft pick. He isn't the biggest guy, but he is strong on his skates, making him very solid in both puck pursuit and puck protection. Kaprizov was second for Team OAR with nine points at the Olympics, showcasing the full complement of his talents. He has great puck skills with a quick shot and keen distribution skills. Meanwhile, he goes to all of the hard areas, battles for pucks and has a strong on-ice work ethic to go with his high-end skill. Kaprizov has the second-most points by a U20 player in KHL history, with 77 in 133 games, and he tacked on 40 more as a 20-year-old this season. Should he join the NHL in 2020-21, I'd expect him to make an immediate and significant impact.
Selecting a goalie in the first round is risky, but a Russian goalie? That actually might not be the worst idea. It's obviously working out well for the Tampa Bay Lightning with Andrei Vasilevskiy. Now the Capitals hope it will work with Samsonov, who was picked 22nd overall in 2015. Unlike Kaprizov and much more similarly to Vasilevskiy, Samsonov is expected to soon sign with the Capitals upon the conclusion of his contract with Metallurg Magnitogorsk. KHL contracts typically end April 30.Samsonov is a high-upside prospect who has been an excellent goalie, particularly against his peer group internationally over the years. He has put up reasonably strong numbers in the KHL, playing more of a backup role behind Metallurg starter Vasily Koshechkin. Samsonov has appeared in 73 KHL games the past four seasons, posting a solid .929 save percentage. That includes a .926 mark in 26 games this season.The most logical next move, if the Capitals do indeed sign Samsonov, is to start him in the American Hockey League. Even though there is a potential opening, depending on what happens with the arbitration-eligible RFA Philipp Grubauer, Samsonov needs reps and lots of them, especially on the North American rink. A big, quick goaltender, Samsonov should thrive in the AHL for a Hershey Bears team coming off a disappointing season.His substantial pro experience overseas could help his NHL timeline, but there's no need to rush him. That is, unless the Capitals decide to mix things up if the remainder of the postseason doesn't go as planned.
Goaltending is a key need for the Islanders, and Sorokin could help provide some relief. However, the Isles will have to continue waiting for the 22-year-old. He has two years remaining on his contract with CSKA Moscow, which just dropped the KHL final to Ak Bars Kazan. Sorokin played in three of the five games in the series but backed up in the decisive Game 5 as CSKA lost 1-0. He appeared in 18 playoff contests, recording a .930 save percentage, slightly below his .931 mark in 37 regular-season appearances. The 6-foot-2 netminder also played in the Olympics with Team OAR and appeared in one game. He might also play for Russia at the World Championship next month.His current contract would have him enter the NHL no earlier than his age-25 season in 2020-21. By that time, he'd be looking for an NHL deal and probably NHL playing time in order to hop to North America. The only legitimate threat to his chance to be the Islanders' starter of the future at this point is Swedish goalie Linus Soderstrom, who is already under contract with the Isles but was limited to just 14 games in the SHL with HV-71. The Islanders are also rumored to be in the mix for recently crowned Russian champion and free-agent goalie Emil Garipov, who is 26.To me, there's no better talent in the Islanders' system than Sorokin, though Soderstrom is very good. They need help more immediately than he can give it to them, however, so there's no doubt that there will be some place-holding going on in the interim.
As long as Henrik Lundqvist is the Rangers' goalie, Shestyorkin can simply ripen on the vine in Russia. He has been splitting time with Mikko Koskinen for SKA, which was one of the top teams in the KHL this season. However, reports have suggested that Koskinen is coming to the NHL, possibly in a deal with the Edmonton Oilers. If that puts Shestyorkin in line for more starts, this is an especially positive development for the Rangers.In 28 appearances, the 22-year-old posted a .933 save percentage. However, Koskinen had the net mostly to himself for the playoffs. Shestyorkin has a year remaining on his current contract, so he isn't far from becoming available if he chooses to come to North America. By that point, Lundqvist will have just two years remaining on his own contract, providing a perfect opportunity to get Shestyorkin a year of AHL time to make the adjustment to North American ice and possibly a year as Lundqvist's understudy. However, it's hard to know what the future holds for Lundqvist.In short, there are a lot of unknowns at this point, but Shestyorkin remains an intriguing prospect with noticeable upside. SKA is going to look a bit different next season but is still likely to remain among the KHL's top teams. If he gets some reps and has some success, there won't be much standing in the way of him coming to North America and becoming part of the Rangers' near-term plans.
Simply put, Gusev is one of the most talented players currently outside the NHL. He finished second in the KHL behind teammate Ilya Kovalchuk with 62 points in 54 games, led the Olympics in scoring with 12 points and is fourth in KHL scoring the past four seasons. At only 25 years old, he still has a chance to come over and make an impact. The question is, will he?The Golden Knights have a lot of options with Gusev's rights. They could hang onto them for however long they want. After their failed experiment with bringing over Vadim Shipachyov, they could be a little hesitant, but Gusev has much more potential to hit. He has one year remaining on his current KHL deal.Vegas would be wise to take a run at him for a short-term deal in 2019-20. He'll be 27 then, but his skills should allow him to make an impact. Look at what Evgenii Dadonov did with Florida this season at age 28. Gusev could bring a lot to the Golden Knights as they look to maintain a pretty high standard of play.
Rykov was part of the trade that sent Michael Grabner to the New Jersey Devils. He's another intriguing prospect who is a little difficult to project at this point. He has good size, moves pretty well and can get the puck up ice. However, Russian defenders who have come over after a few years in the KHL have had very, very mixed experiences. That's not to say they can't hack it, but it seems that the learning curve is steeper in a variety of ways for them. Nikita Zaitsev took a step back after a solid debut with Toronto last year, and Andrei Mironov, Nikita Tryamkin and others have come and gone rather quickly. That said, Rykov has another year left on his KHL contract, so there's no rush to find out what he's capable of. He also just turned 21 and has plenty of quality development time ahead of him.Having traded for him amid a rebuild, the Rangers obviously would like to see some value. Rykov took a pretty substantial step forward this season in terms of usage and production. He had 14 points in 53 games for SKA and appeared in 13 playoff contests. Rangers fans will have to wait at least a year to see if he'll cross the pond, but if the team manages to bring over Kovalchuk, as has been rumored, that might help. Rykov and Kovalchuk have been teammates for the past three years.
The Blue Jackets tried to get Gavrikov to come over before, but the 22-year-old defenseman opted to stay home, signing with SKA St. Petersburg mainly so he could play for the Olympic Athletes from Russia team at the Olympics. Gavrikov was essentially a top-four defenseman for the gold medalists, scoring two goals and adding an assist over 17:45 per game.Gavrikov also played a fairly substantial role on SKA's D corps, which was one of the deeper groups in the KHL. Only Rykov appeared in more games than Gavrikov's 50. He averaged 15:38 per game and finished with 14 points on five goals and nine assists. He's reliable and perhaps a bit predictable, but that's more of a compliment. I think he has limited offensive upside, but he could be a solid bottom-pair defenseman for the long term.For now, it looks like Gavrikov is headed back to SKA for at least another year. The Blue Jackets have a ton of offseason work to do, but you'd have to think Gavrikov remains in their plans and could be part of the NHL roster as early as 2019-20.
