7 days.....Add something to the thread.
Let`s see if we can get the winner.
Let`s see if we can get the winner.
Last years winner.....Always Dreaming.
| Horse/Sire | Watchmaker Odds | Last Race, Result, and Beyer | Next Likely Race, Track, and Date | Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments |
| - designates Keeneland sale graduate | |||
| Justify
| 7-2 | Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Remarkable the progress he has made in 48 days, beat top-class colt in SA Derby. Very talented. |
| by Scat Daddy | 1st by 3, 107 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: The way he toyed with Bolt d'Oro in stakes and nine-furlong bow left zero doubt he's the real deal. | |
| Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Head of Plains Partners; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith | ||||
| Magnum Moon
| 6-1 | Arkansas Derby, 4/14 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Not crazy about way he drifts through lane, but crazy about the talent he possesses. Big chance. |
| by Malibu Moon | 1st by 4, 98 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: After sitting off the lead and romping in his first three starts, he wired and romped in Ark. Derby. | |
| Owner: Lawana & Robert Low; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez | ||||
| Mendelssohn
| 6-1 | UAE Derby, 3/31 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Had ideal pace scenario, crushed rivals in Dubai. World-class trainer, rider take aim at Derby. |
| by Scat Daddy | 1st by 18 1/2, 106 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Most dangerous Derby threat ever to exit Dubai, but that alone doesn't make him the winner. | |
| Owner: Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier, & Michael Tabor; Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Ryan Moore | ||||
| Audible | 8-1 | Florida Derby, 3/31 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Got a terrific setup in the Florida Derby, and has really come on this winter at Gulfstream. Solid. |
| by Into Mischief | 1st by 3, 99 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Stalked from close up and came from far back in his two big GP wins. He's not pace-dependent. | |
| Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Heads of Plains Partners; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano | ||||
| Bolt d'Oro | 8-1 | Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Tried twice to catch Justify in SA Derby, couldn't do it, but was in unenviable chasing role. Two solid preps. |
| by Medaglia d'Oro | 2nd by 3, 102 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Still have immense respect for his abilty, which makes what Justify did all the more impressive. | |
| Owner: Ruis Racing; Trainer: Mick Ruis; Jockey: Victor Espinoza | ||||
| Good Magic
| 12-1 | Blue Grass, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Took step forward off Fountain of Youth, mirroring progress at 2; third start last year his best. |
| by Curlin | 1st by 1 1/2, 95 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Would have been bad if he didn't improve off 3yo bow. Just don’t think Blue Grass was strong. | |
| Owner: e Five Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Jose Ortiz | ||||
| Vino Rosso
| 15-1 | Wood Memorial, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Overcame slow start, wide trip to win Wood, but thought race shape helped. Johnny V.'s choice. |
| by Curlin | 1st by 3, 98 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Ran in the Wood the way I thought he might in his disappointing Tampa Bay Derby outing. | |
| Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez | ||||
| Noble Indy | 20-1 | Louisiana Derby, 3/24 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Improved effort with blinkers added. Was close to strong pace, battled back courageously to win. |
| by Take Charge Indy | 1st by a neck, 95 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Demonstrated heart to come again late, but he came back on two rivals who seem quite limited. | |
| Owner: WinStar Farm & Repole Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Florent Geroux | ||||
| Combatant
| 30-1 | Arkansas Derby, 4/14 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Was compromised by slow pace, wide trip, but doesn't quite finish off his races as one might hope. |
| by Scat Daddy | 4th by 4 1/4, 92 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: He, along with a handful listed below, just haven't gone anywhere in terms of their Beyer Figs. | |
| Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds & Willis Horton; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. | ||||
| Enticed | 30-1 | Wood Memorial, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Took solid bump, couldn't match strides late with Vino Rosso. Won CD's biggest 2yo race last fall. |
| by Medaglia d'Oro | 2nd by 3, 93 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: He wasn't going to beat Vino Rosso even if he wasn't bumped. Still wonder about him going long. | |
| Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Junior Alvarado | ||||
| Flameaway
| 30-1 | Blue Grass, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Truly admirable how he battles every single time. Was part of Blue Grass pace, held on well. |
| by Scat Daddy | 2nd by 1 1/2, 93 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Yes, he's very game. He's also in a Beyer rut of 93-92-93, and that just won't win the Derby. | |
| Owner: John Oxley; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Jose Lezcano | ||||
| Free Drop Billy
| 30-1 | Blue Grass, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Was deservedly moved up to third via DQ in Blue Grass, but seems stuck at same level this spring. |
| by Union Rags | 4th by 4 (pl. 3rd via dq), 89 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Has the points to participate. What he doesn't have is a race that suggests he can win this event. | |
| Owner: Albaugh Family Stables; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robby Albarado | ||||
| Hofburg | 30-1 | Florida Derby, 3/31 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Liked maturity he showed for a horse with so little experience. Had to wait, tried, second best. |
| by Tapit | 2nd by 3, 94 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Truth is, nearly every horse here is lightly raced. But he has more room to improve than most. | |
| Owner: Juddmonte Farms; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | ||||
| Instilled Regard | 30-1 | Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: SA Derby pace didn't help, but not sure he's progressed since Los Alamitos Futurity in December. |
| by Arch | 4th by 10 3/4, 90 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Wasn't that fast Beyer-wise to begin with, and he's gone the wrong way in his last two starts. | |
| Owner: OXO Equine; Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer; Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke | ||||
| My Boy Jack
| 30-1 | Lexington, 4/14 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Admire how he ships everywhere and always runs well, just think he's a cut below the best here. |
| by Creative Cause | 1st by a head, 90 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Note how when he didn't get an ideal setup in the Lexington, his Beyer fell by a few points. | |
| Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables, Monomoy Stables & West Point Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Keith Desormeaux; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux | ||||
| Solomini
| 30-1 | Arkansas Derby, 4/14 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Got outside in Ark. Derby, which is what he prefers, but is too one-paced to quicken when needed. |
| by Curlin | 3rd by 4 1/4, 92 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Like Flameaway, he's been stuck in 92 and 93 Beyer territory for a while, and that won't cut it. | |
| Owner: Zayat Stables, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, & Derrick Smith; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Flavien Prat | ||||
| Bravazo | 50-1 | Louisiana Derby, 3/24 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Was trying to lug out entire way in Louisiana Derby. Hard to like off poor final prep six weeks out. |
| by Awesome Again | 8th by 21 1/4, 64 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: For whatever reason, his La. Derby was horrific. Still, even his Risen Star win was only so-so. | |
| Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Contreras | ||||
| Firenze Fire | 50-1 | Wood Memorial, 4/7 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Think form is in decline, and distance is well beyond his comfort zone. That's a bad exacta. |
| by Poseidon's Warrior | 4th by 11 1/4, 81 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: In on points. The saving grace this year is there isn't an exciting horse shut out due to points. | |
| Owner: Mr. Amore Stable; Trainer: Jason Servis; Jockey: Paco Lopez | ||||
| Lone Sailor
| 50-1 | Louisiana Derby, 3/24 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Ran best race yet in La. Derby, but believe the form of FG preps is below that of other regionals. |
| by Majestic Warrior | 2nd by a neck, 95 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: He got a great setup in Louisiana Derby and had the lead late, but couldn't close the deal. Pass. | |
| Owner: G M B Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: James Graham | ||||
| Promises Fulfilled
| 50-1 | Florida Derby, 3/31 | Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m | JP: Pace makes his race. Sensible in Fountain of Youth, won. Radioactive in Florida Derby, stopped. |
| by Shackleford | 9th by 35 1/4, 47 | Churchill Downs, 5/5 | MW: Dreadful effort off which to go into the Derby, and it's not like he'll have a walking lead at CD. | |
| Owner: Robert Baron; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Corey Lanerie |
<tbody>
</tbody>
<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">April 28, 2018: Kentucky Derby and Oaks Morning Works Show.....Starts at the 3:56 Mark.</yt-formatted-string>
[FONT="]Good Magic [/FONT][FONT="]breezed 4 furlongs in 49.40.....[/FONT][FONT="]Splits: 12.80, 24.80, 36.60. Out 1:01.20.[/FONT][FONT="]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
Nice pic from early this morning.....The sun is up.
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Justify</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Magnum Moon
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Mendelssohn</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Audible</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Bolt d'Oro</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Good Magic</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Vino Rosso</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Noble Indy</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Combatant</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Enticed</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Flameaway</yt-formatted-string>[/h]
[h=1]Kentucky Derby Contender Profile - Free Drop Billy[/h]
