Are round robins advantageous over straight bets if you have a high win rate? I was curious so I ran some numbers, though I'd share.
Using a 3 team (3x2 RR), all wagers -110, looked at the probability distribution of each result based on binomial distribution given the win rate, and calculated out expected value for straights vs RR.
Not surprisingly, at a 50% win rate straight bets are far preferable. I was surprised to see how bad the RR returns at this win rate though, giving the house 3.5 times the hold on your wager.
If you are a 53% player at -110, playing round robins take you from a profitable player all the way to giving the house a 6.1% hold.
I was curious where the breakeven win rate fell. I guess it would be somewhere around 54% but it is actually all the way up at 57%. You have to hit 57%+ of your -110 straight wagers to make a 3x2 RR the preferable bet.
Food for thought everyone, I found it interesting. Here's the full breakdown:
Using a 3 team (3x2 RR), all wagers -110, looked at the probability distribution of each result based on binomial distribution given the win rate, and calculated out expected value for straights vs RR.
Not surprisingly, at a 50% win rate straight bets are far preferable. I was surprised to see how bad the RR returns at this win rate though, giving the house 3.5 times the hold on your wager.
If you are a 53% player at -110, playing round robins take you from a profitable player all the way to giving the house a 6.1% hold.
I was curious where the breakeven win rate fell. I guess it would be somewhere around 54% but it is actually all the way up at 57%. You have to hit 57%+ of your -110 straight wagers to make a 3x2 RR the preferable bet.
Food for thought everyone, I found it interesting. Here's the full breakdown:
