Westgate SuperBook favors Patriots to lead NFL in wins next season

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The New England Patriots have won 12 or more games in eight consecutive regular seasons. Las Vegas oddsmakers aren't sure they'll reach that point again this year.


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The Patriots' season win total opened at 11 on Sunday at the Westgate SuperBook, the highest in the league, but down more than a win from last season's number.


Last spring, New England was coming off a Super Bowl title and opened with the highest win total (12.5) since at least the 2001 season, according to odds archive Sportsoddshistory.com. No other team was set higher than 10.5.

This year, the gap between New England the rest of the league has narrowed significantly.

"[Tom] Brady is going to be 41, and [Jimmy] Garoppolo is gone," said Ed Salmons, the Westgate's head football oddsmaker. "There just isn't as much margin of error for the Patriots at this point."

The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers each opened at 10.5, followed by the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings at 10. No other team opened with a double-digit win total.

The Westgate posted win totals on every team Sunday. Bettors can take over or under on the set number at varying odds.

The Cleveland Browns, who went 0-16 last season, and the Arizona Cardinalseach opened at 5.5, the lowest of any teams at the Westgate.

The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams saw the biggest year-over-year jump in their win totals. The 49ers, who were projected by the Westgate to win 5 games last season, picked up Garoppolo from the Patriots and closed the year with five straight wins to finish 6-10. San Francisco's win total for this season opened at 9.

The Rams opened at 9.5 for this season, after being projected to win just six games last year.

The Westgate has seen significant support on the 49ers and Rams from the betting public the past three months. In fact, more bets have been placed and more money has been wagered on the Rams to win the Super Bowl than any other team, Salmons said. The 49ers have the third-most bets to win the Super Bowl.

"I know both of those teams (Rams and 49ers) have difficult schedules, but the public has shown just a ton of support for them," Salmons said.


The Westgate on Sunday also posted point spreads on approximately 80 of this season's games as well as odds to win each division and "Yes/No" on each team to make the playoffs.


The Eagles, Vikings, Rams and New Orleans Saints are the favorites in their divisions in the NFC. The Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargersare division favorites in the AFC.


The Cardinals are the biggest long shots to make the playoffs at 8-1.


The Patriots remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl at 6-1 at the Westgate. The Eagles and Steelers are next at 8-1, followed by the Rams at 10-1.
 
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What you think BAS, over or under?


@ 11, I think it's right on the money

when i first saw the title, knowing they were 12.5 last season, i was hoping for an opening of 12. I would have taken the under there
Early look I have them at 11-5, that extra 1 game at 12, would get me to wager it, because if they went 12-4 I wouldn't mind the push
 

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Ehh, division sucks just as much as it ever has and the rest of the schedule isn't that tough either. Get 2/3 of Gb/Minn/Pitt at home, those are the big matchups. Hou and Indy have QB's coming back from injury and KC has a new QB so those teams are wildcards but none of them have very good secondaries.

I think 12 wins is more likely than 10. Division just creates such a high floor.
 

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I know it's just a throwaway quote and way more goes into linemaking, but saying NE doesn't have much margin for error is a funny thing to read.

Has this dude seen the AFC east?
 
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Here are the Patriot games where there is any danger of losing.

@ Jags - I think the Jags are for real and the team to beat in the AFC. After the Pats of course.

@ Titties - There's always a slippery slope on every schedule. I think this could be the game.

@ Jets - Always a toughie for the Pats.

vs Minny - Minny will challenge for best in NFC.

@ Miami - Pats often have trouble going south to their Div Rivals home. Extra slippery this year because the Pats are at Pit the following week.

@ Pit - Although I think the Steelers are regressing, they have to be respected as we look ahead.

So that's 6 maybe losses. I would expect the Pats to get at least three of them. That would leave them at 13-3.

And no, I'm not worried about Brady finishing the year. In his whole career he has missed one full season as he went down in the early going of Game 1 that year. Take out the suspension games and he has never missed another NFL start. The man is a superman.
 

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Jags have talent but they've only been good for 1 year and that is the prototypical regression team. Easy schedule, good health, good defense, average QB (probably being kind here) is just the type of team that finds trouble sustaining year after year in the NFL. Now their schedule is harder, their D probably won't be quite as good as last year and they will likely have 4 games with Luck/Watson instead of Savage/Brissett (granted this doesn't really factor into their ability as a team, but it will make their degree of difficulty in competing harder).....I dunno, not down on them or anything but what I said is a truism in the NFL.

I think the Jets will blow, McCown has always been underrated when he can stay healthy. NE losing to Miami @ Miami has become a "thing" over the years but I've always thought a lot of that was just bad timing. 2014 it was week 1 and NE didn't hit stride until week 5-6 that year, 2015 they played them late in the year there and their OL was in shambles, last year Gronk was suspended. NE will likely be over -7 for both of those games so while they could lose, I think when the ML is > -300 it is hard for me to put it in the "danger" category.

Titans? Ehh, I think Vrabel has potential to be a very good coach but that team underachieved last year and NE dusted them like it was nothing in the playoffs. We'll see.

Even Houston, I think with Watson healthy they're live but if you wanna play him coming off a torn ACL, then week 1 seems like a good time to do so.

@Detroit might be tough. I'd put them over Tenn/Mia/NYJ for sure. Atleast they have a QB.

I'd say Green Bay at home is a dangerous game. Rodgers is always live. Big November sweeps week 9 matchup that is usually reserved for Brady/Manning or Pats/Steelers. Only 2nd time (and probably last) that Brady/Rodgers will square off in their careers. That's great scheduling to put that in that week 9 slot.

12 wins is a lot, I don't think it is a great bet but I do think it is value.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/ne/new-england-patriots

There is their schedule for public consumption.
 

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Thursday, Sep 06, 2018 - NFL Football Game
451Atlanta Falcons+5-110Ov46½-110
452Philadelphia Eagles-5-110Un46½-110
Sunday, Sep 09, 2018 - NFL Football Game
453Pittsburgh Steelers-6-110Ov47-110
454Cleveland Browns+6-110Un47-110
455San Francisco 49ers+4½+100Ov46½-110
456Minnesota Vikings-4½-120Un46½-110
457Cincinnati Bengals+1½+110Ov47-110
458Indianapolis Colts-1½-130Un47-110
459Buffalo Bills+4-105Ov42½-110
460Baltimore Ravens-4-115Un42½-110
461Jacksonville Jaguars-4-110Ov44-110
462New York Giants+4-110Un44-110
463Tampa Bay Buccaneers+7-110Ov51½-110
464New Orleans Saints-7-110Un51½-110
465Houston Texans+6½-110Ov51½-110
466New England Patriots-6½-110Un51½-110
467Tennessee Titans-2½-110Ov46½-110
468Miami Dolphins+2½-110Un46½-110
469Kansas City Chiefs+3-115Ov47½-110
470Los Angeles Chargers-3-105Un47½-110
471Seattle Seahawks+1½-110Ov42-110
472Denver Broncos-1½-110Un42-110
473Dallas Cowboys+2½-110Ov44-110
474Carolina Panthers-2½-110Un44-110
475Washington Redskinspk-110Ov44½-105
476Arizona Cardinalspk-110Un44½-115
477Chicago Bears+8-105Ov47½-110
478Green Bay Packers-8-115Un47½-110
Monday, Sep 10, 2018 - NFL Football Game
479New York Jets+6½-110Ov43½-115
480Detroit Lions-6½-110Un43½-105
481Los Angeles Rams-1½-130Ov49½-110
482Oakland Raiders+1½+110Un49½-110

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Pats tend to start slow. They could lose opening day vs Houston if Watson is fully healthy
 

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New England will struggle to attain 11 wins imo. The AFC East is improved each of the last few years. With Brady basically a senior citizen for a QB, Gronk who will never be able to play a full season, and a Defense that just lost one of the best Coordinators around, NE wont reach this number. The gravy train is over for NE.
 

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If you think Brady isn’t going to be 1 of the best QBs in the league next year then yeah you go under. Unless he’s a top 5 QB, NE probably isn’t winning 12 games. I think he has at least another year at that level though, especially with Edelman coming back.

As as far as the AFC east being better, if you really believe that then I’d just bet the over on 1-2 of those teams.

If you add up the win totals for Mia/NYJ/Buff, I’m thinking it is as low as it has been at any time in the last 15 years. Save for maybe 1-2 seasons.
 

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New England will struggle to attain 11 wins imo. The AFC East is improved each of the last few years. With Brady basically a senior citizen for a QB, Gronk who will never be able to play a full season, and a Defense that just lost one of the best Coordinators around, NE wont reach this number. The gravy train is over for NE.


again? that gravy train seemingly is over every year

although I do have to concede, one year the doomsday crowd will be right, but not just yet, not with the NFL's MVP still playing at the very top of his game

:)
 

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Unless he retires before it happens, sooner or later we will see a decline in Tom Brady's play.

Obviously that will equate to fewer wins...
 

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again? that gravy train seemingly is over every year

although I do have to concede, one year the doomsday crowd will be right, but not just yet, not with the NFL's MVP still playing at the very top of his game

:)

brady vs mccarron, tannehill and darnold? yeah probably still 12-4 or 13-3. the rest of the east is preparing for the day brady leaves. bills and jets have rookie qbs in waiting and the dolphins lost all their offensive talent last year.
 

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first look at week 1....chargers and cardinals

Keep in mind the Chargers just have an atrocious home field "advantage"

Chiefs fans gonna be traveling to LA for that home opener.

Just tough to bet Charger home games. I know that is largely priced into the line now but I think the margin for error in the NFL is so thin that not really having home games has an accumulating effect on a team that probably isn't quantifiable yet.
 

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Keep in mind the Chargers just have an atrocious home field "advantage"

Chiefs fans gonna be traveling to LA for that home opener.

Just tough to bet Charger home games. I know that is largely priced into the line now but I think the margin for error in the NFL is so thin that not really having home games has an accumulating effect on a team that probably isn't quantifiable yet.

just like the chargers d line and a qb making his first pro start against them. i actually like a long shot for the chargers to win the super bowl. 35/1 sounds good to me. i think they win the division and with all the hype around the league about the other team in LA i think the better one is the chargers. chiefs have a new qb, denver is going with keenum and an aging wr corp and oakland has no defense and a bunch of guys who like to smoke weed. they were a very strong team down towards the end of the season and almost made the playoffs. i think they are a threat to new england to win the afc. gotta take a longshot sometimes and i think there is value here.
 

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