- Firenze Fire
2. Free Drop Billy
Tough post, will need to improve but most definitely could pick up pieces and find himself fourth if horses in front fall apart.
3. Promises Fulfilled
Style not a good fit for the race, don't think he will like 10F. Would be very surprised if he was still around late.
4. Flameaway
Versatile, consistent and accomplished. Would need vast improvement to win but most definitely can be in the TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA and is a longshot possibility if runs career best
5. Audible
An extremely talented colt who is one of the best horses in the race but don't think he will like going this far. Breeding strongly suggests more suited to a shorter distance. Exotics ceiling and would be surprised if victorious. Audible needs to be ridden hard throughout and might not have the personality to absorb the rigors of race.
6. Good Magic
Contender based on strong resume and breeding for distance. Has great post for his style and could be set for a peak performance. Battle tested. The only knock is he might be a slight notch behind these based on speed figures.
7. Justify
Winner of the best prep race makes him an obvious contender. Has a lot working against him as he's so lightly raced and all 3 races were easy going trips. Justify might be the best horse but no horse has the APOLLO CURSE working against him. Has the right trainer. A lot to like but the value will not be there.
8. Lone Sailor
Outmatched and will not like the distance. Nice horse but would need to improve dramatically. Distance limitations and only one career race that showcased talent enough to even hit board let alone win. Has great works.
9. Hofberg
An interesting sort that most definitely can get a piece of the pie. Would prefer more experience and to be more battle-tested but seems to be moving in right direction.
10. My Boy Jack
Has shown me nothing to suggest he is good enough to win this. Was life or death to win the Lexington a race he needed to win just to get in. Would be floored if he won but is experienced, well traveled and has good jock. SUPERFECTA is the max though.
11. BOLT D ORO
Comes out of best prep where a win was not needed and likely BOLT was not fully cranked. Bred to run all day, has a fantastic resume and a jockey who's won three derbies. Has the tactical speed to get a very good spot behind leaders and should be right there. Consistent, battle-tested, coming up to race well and is a MAJOR contender.
12. Enticed
Has defeated a few of these already, should get a good trip right off the pace and has shown gameness. Think Enticed is a step behind this field but has good breeding. I just don't think he is good enough to win but could hit the board.
13. Bravazo
Not a fan of 6 weeks layoff before this race, seems a step behind these for 82-year-old trainer Lukas. Is battle-tested and has good breeding but would be a surprise for anything serious.
14. Mendelssohn
Usually, I throwout horses that come here from Dubai and overseas as they usually never run a step in the DERBY but this guy definitely has the best chance of any previous runners coming from overseas. The colt is the best-bred horse in the race and should find the distance to his liking. The talent is obviously there but major concerns are there as well. Contender with major questions.
15. Instilled Regard
Would be a shocker. Obviously, a step behind these and nothing suggests he should be anywhere near the wire. Would need a miracle.
16. Magnum Moon
Undefeated colt is just like Justify who never ran as two year old. Was impressive in ARK DERBY but the lugging out is a major concern. Also very possible he simply is a notch behind these based on speed figures. Would be surprised if he won but not if he hit board.
17. Solomini
Appears to be a step behind the best but could find his way into supers based on good breeding for distance and stalking style. Don't think the post will be a problem. Consistent and is a fighter but not fast enough to win.
18. Vino Rosso
Seems to be sitting on a big race and will LOVE the added distance and is already a horse I am eyeing for the Belmont. Johnny V picked this one over Audible and I think it's because he knows Vino is the better horse for the distance. One of the better-bred colts in the race and has a lot to like. One concern is the post and another is if caught between horses he may feel uncomfortable but other than that is A MAJOR CONTENDER
19. Noble Indy
A very talented colt who unfortunately drew a very bad post. His LA DERBY impressed me more than others as he fought gamely after setting fast fractions. Could surprise if he can overcome the terrible post draw.
20. Combatant
A consistent colt has done nothing wrong but gets a terrible post and appears to be behind the contenders. Would need luck to hit exotics and miracle to win.
