Churchill 5-05-2018
race #1 - 7f
#7 8-1 UNITED PATRIOT
#5 2-1 CROSSWALK
#2 5-1 SHARE THE UPSIDE
#6 5-2 ONCE ON WHISKEY
race #2 - 8f
#7 4-1 SUPER DERECHO
#1 3-1 GRAY SKY
#6 5-1 BIG GRAY ROCKET
race #3 - 8.5f
#4 3-1 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME
#8 5-2 LOOKIN AT LEE
#5 3-1 SONNETEER
race #4 - 8f turf
#5 8-1 D SQUARED
#4 3-1 UNBRIDLED REBEL
#3 7-2 DING DONG DITCH
race #5 - 8f
#8 7-2 MCCRAKEN
#1 9-2 SIEM RIEP
race #6 - 7f
#1 7-2 FINLEY'SLUCKYCHARM
#8 7-2 AMERICAN GAL
#5 3-1 LEWIS BAY
race #7 - 8f turf
#7 10-1 RES IPSA
#9 8-1 ON LEAVE
#2 10-1 THUNDERING SKY
race #8 - 7f
#3 9-5 IMPERIAL HINT
#10 5-2 AWESOME SLEW
#1 6-1 WHITMORE
race #9 - 8.5f turf
#1 6-1 SPEED FRANCO
#10 6-1 MARAUD
#6 5-1 RIVER BOYNE (IRE)
race #10 - 8f
#12 9-2 RESTORING HOPE
#8 4-1 MASK
#5 10-1 MISSISSIPPI
race #11 - 9f turf
#5 10-1 CHANNEL MAKER
#7 5-1 SYNCHRONY
#9 15-1 YOSHIDA (JPN)
race #12 - 10f
#7 3-1 JUSTIFY - heavy fav
#18 12-1 VINO ROSSO - Johhny V. likes
#14 5-1 MENDELSSOHN - can't dismiss
JUSTIFY
I'm a believer of toteboard tells (money talks) and horse flesh (races don't run on paper).
Looking at Justify's race history and future book correlation ...
Race history:
on 02-18 won Maiden
on 03-11 won Allowance
on 04-07 won Santa Anita Derby
Future book action:
Derby Future Pool 1 11-26-2017 - (all others) 6/5
Derby Future Pool 2 02-11-2018 - (all others) 5/2
Derby Future Pool 3 03-11-2018 - favorite 6/1
Derby Future Pool 4 04-08-2018 - favorite 3/1 (FYI, 5/2 in Vegas)
Points are required to qualify for entry into the Kentucky Derby.
On March 11th, Justify beats 4 horses in an allowance race and becomes the future book favorite at 6/1, ahead of Baffert's other, more seasoned runner, McKinzie (9/1).
I'd like to know what he was in Vegas at that time. I would guess lower.
I have to ask myself, who takes 6/1 on a horse that hasn't earned 1 point towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby nor has run against any allowance winners.
Would you take 6/1 at that stage?? I know I couldn't. Too many unknowns for me because I DON'T KNOW THE HORSE.
Only those with an incredible amount of confidence could take 6/1.
Now it's Derby Day and 6/1 looks like a steal but you had to KNOW (not guess) that on 3-11.
6/1 was not a good price for a horse with just a "good" shot to win both SA Derby and Kentucky Derby.
I'll go with Justify to win.
VINO ROSSO
Johnny V. had a few to pick from (including AUDIBLE) but always felt this horse will relish Derby distance best. And besides that, he is the only jockey to win for Pletcher at Churchill in the past 12 months. Pletcher is only 3 for 19 at Churchill ... Johnny V rode all 3 winners.
MENDELSSOHN
Moore elected off a few 2000 Guineas contenders to ride here. Horse has the talent. Acclimation will be the big question.He didn't look good to me during his gallop on Thursday. He's a proven shipper though, so check him out in the pre-race to see how he's handling things. That will be what beats him.
My plays:
$1 ExactaKeyBox: 7/5,6,11,14,18 ($10)
$0.10 Superfecta: 7 / 18 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 5,6,9,10,11,12,14,16 ($4.20)
$0.10 Superfecta: 7 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 18 /5,6,9,10,11,12,14,16 ($4.20)
$0.10 Superfecta: 7 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 18 ($3.00)
race #13 - 8.5f
#1 6-1 BATTLE AT SEA
#5 7-2 LIONITE
#11 5-1 KING ZACHARY
race #14 - 8f
#6 5-2 LIMATION
#4 4-1 COROT
#8 6-1 ELUSIVE HERO
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
race #1 - 7f
#7 8-1 UNITED PATRIOT
#5 2-1 CROSSWALK
#2 5-1 SHARE THE UPSIDE
#6 5-2 ONCE ON WHISKEY
race #2 - 8f
#7 4-1 SUPER DERECHO
#1 3-1 GRAY SKY
#6 5-1 BIG GRAY ROCKET
race #3 - 8.5f
#4 3-1 HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME
#8 5-2 LOOKIN AT LEE
#5 3-1 SONNETEER
race #4 - 8f turf
#5 8-1 D SQUARED
#4 3-1 UNBRIDLED REBEL
#3 7-2 DING DONG DITCH
race #5 - 8f
#8 7-2 MCCRAKEN
#1 9-2 SIEM RIEP
race #6 - 7f
#1 7-2 FINLEY'SLUCKYCHARM
#8 7-2 AMERICAN GAL
#5 3-1 LEWIS BAY
race #7 - 8f turf
#7 10-1 RES IPSA
#9 8-1 ON LEAVE
#2 10-1 THUNDERING SKY
race #8 - 7f
#3 9-5 IMPERIAL HINT
#10 5-2 AWESOME SLEW
#1 6-1 WHITMORE
race #9 - 8.5f turf
#1 6-1 SPEED FRANCO
#10 6-1 MARAUD
#6 5-1 RIVER BOYNE (IRE)
race #10 - 8f
#12 9-2 RESTORING HOPE
#8 4-1 MASK
#5 10-1 MISSISSIPPI
race #11 - 9f turf
#5 10-1 CHANNEL MAKER
#7 5-1 SYNCHRONY
#9 15-1 YOSHIDA (JPN)
race #12 - 10f
#7 3-1 JUSTIFY - heavy fav
#18 12-1 VINO ROSSO - Johhny V. likes
#14 5-1 MENDELSSOHN - can't dismiss
JUSTIFY
I'm a believer of toteboard tells (money talks) and horse flesh (races don't run on paper).
Looking at Justify's race history and future book correlation ...
Race history:
on 02-18 won Maiden
on 03-11 won Allowance
on 04-07 won Santa Anita Derby
Future book action:
Derby Future Pool 1 11-26-2017 - (all others) 6/5
Derby Future Pool 2 02-11-2018 - (all others) 5/2
Derby Future Pool 3 03-11-2018 - favorite 6/1
Derby Future Pool 4 04-08-2018 - favorite 3/1 (FYI, 5/2 in Vegas)
Points are required to qualify for entry into the Kentucky Derby.
On March 11th, Justify beats 4 horses in an allowance race and becomes the future book favorite at 6/1, ahead of Baffert's other, more seasoned runner, McKinzie (9/1).
I'd like to know what he was in Vegas at that time. I would guess lower.
I have to ask myself, who takes 6/1 on a horse that hasn't earned 1 point towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby nor has run against any allowance winners.
Would you take 6/1 at that stage?? I know I couldn't. Too many unknowns for me because I DON'T KNOW THE HORSE.
Only those with an incredible amount of confidence could take 6/1.
Now it's Derby Day and 6/1 looks like a steal but you had to KNOW (not guess) that on 3-11.
6/1 was not a good price for a horse with just a "good" shot to win both SA Derby and Kentucky Derby.
I'll go with Justify to win.
VINO ROSSO
Johnny V. had a few to pick from (including AUDIBLE) but always felt this horse will relish Derby distance best. And besides that, he is the only jockey to win for Pletcher at Churchill in the past 12 months. Pletcher is only 3 for 19 at Churchill ... Johnny V rode all 3 winners.
MENDELSSOHN
Moore elected off a few 2000 Guineas contenders to ride here. Horse has the talent. Acclimation will be the big question.He didn't look good to me during his gallop on Thursday. He's a proven shipper though, so check him out in the pre-race to see how he's handling things. That will be what beats him.
My plays:
$1 ExactaKeyBox: 7/5,6,11,14,18 ($10)
$0.10 Superfecta: 7 / 18 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 5,6,9,10,11,12,14,16 ($4.20)
$0.10 Superfecta: 7 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 18 /5,6,9,10,11,12,14,16 ($4.20)
$0.10 Superfecta: 7 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 5,6,11,12,14,16 / 18 ($3.00)
race #13 - 8.5f
#1 6-1 BATTLE AT SEA
#5 7-2 LIONITE
#11 5-1 KING ZACHARY
race #14 - 8f
#6 5-2 LIMATION
#4 4-1 COROT
#8 6-1 ELUSIVE HERO
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
