Friday Service Plays 05/11/18

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Dave Essler

3* GOW Baltimore Orioles -130
2* Toronto Run Line +1.5
 
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Dave Essler

3* GOW Baltimore Orioles -130
2* Toronto Run Line +1.5
Esslers notes......

I wrote these notes last night - maybe they'll help someone.
Mets/Phillies
Matz hasn't given up more than three earned runs in all six of his starts - but, he's only finished the 6th inning once.
Mets' bullpen has been better of late but still don't trust their middle relief.
Phillies haven't seen much of Matz.
Phillies 15-5 at home and 6-3 versus LHP.
Arrieta has been as advertised save one bad start in Miami.
Pitch count is down - 75 pitches to get through 6 innings last start.
Phillies pen has been outstanding at home - they played Thursday but a day game so more rest and at home.
Neutral weather day - if the total gets to 8.5 I can see this game staying under. Can't lay -160 here.
Giants/Pirates
Suarez is hard to figure - hammered by Arizona early and sent back to Sacramento where he looked solid
With Pittsburgh having no familiarity he may get through the order early
Pirates put up tons of runs at the White Sox - but it's the White Sox - however, it does breed confidence to sweep a road series
Taillon had been brilliant, then crushed a couple of time, now he appears to be somewhere in the middle.
Giants have seen him some and before they ran into the Phillies they'd been mashing the ball
Pirates bullpen has been great - but again against the White Sox and Brewers
Giants pen has been terrible lately - 1.52 WHIP over the last 7 games
Fairly neutral weather
Very early money on the Giants - - at 8 I think eventually it goes over
Rays/Orioles
Surprised that Faria came back with a good outing after an 8 inning/112 pitch shutout at Detroit.
Slight yellow flag in the Baltimore already beat him badly and I do like the pitcher to adjust.
Faria is tough on LHH hitters - only a .559 OPS in his 100 or so innings - RHH's .729 OPS and have hit 9 of the 11 HR's he's allowed.
10 of Rays' last 11 games have stayed under or pushed.
Ray's pen has been lights out (.066 WHIP the last week) but for the season has been terrible on the road.
Gausman 2 or less earned runs in five straight starts - caveat is 113 pitches at Oakland in an CG shutout.
He's been keeping the ball on the ground and not walking people - that's tough to fade.
Cannot trust Baltimore's bullpen lately - a win or two doesn't negate the horrid losing streak.
I can easily justify Baltimore first-five innings and for the game we'd need a QS from Gausman and the O's to hold on.
Baltimore playing Thursday night while Rays rest

Red Sox/Toronto
Sanchez is the league leader in inducing DP's - consequently only 3 HR's allowed in 41 innings
Boston only hitting .199 in 151 at bats against him
Toronto resting while Boston faces the Yankees in obviously an emotional series
Toronto's pen is suspect and more so lately but has been remarkably good at home
Sale has thrown a lot more pitches in the last three starts as compared to the first three
Sale has two straight games of 7 IP and one run allowed - but against Oakland and Texas.
Red Sox pen had been better lately than it had been - can't see a lot of runs here and Jays RL has some merit
Braves/Marlins
McCarthy is just a five-inning pitcher anymore - he'd been serviceable until the Giants crushed him last outing
Miami tagged him pretty good in Miami last season - his next to last start before the DL stint last season
Stanton and Yelich didn't do the damage
Atlanta's pen has been marginal on the road and after watching Vizcaino I don't trust him anymore
Straily has had too many control problems in his two starts to consider - only lasted four inning in both starts
Given Miami's deplorable bullpen it just has to be the Braves and over -
Royals/Indians
Bigger advantage for Cleveland not playing Thursday while Kansas City may used tons of bullpen in Baltimore
Hammel has had SOME success in spots - shutout the Indians in Cleveland this year for six innings - that was when Cleveland couldn't hit
Expecting the Indians to make the adjustments and remember that - there's no chance of taking the Royals here
Hammel has four straight 100+ pitch games and his fly balls haven't left the park - they will eventually
Reasonable chance of rain here and far from warm probably precludes the over
Bauer has gone at least six innings in six straight starts - never giving up more than three earned runs
Indians bullpen has been brutalized the last week - 10.28 ERA - not a misprint
At 8.5 I lean under and because of the aforementioned bullpen, Cleveland first-five
Mariners/Tigers
Seattle has their hitting shoes on again in Toronto against Happ, of all people
Gonzales with a 2:1 flyball ratio the last two games and a 100 pitch game last outing -
Tigers have never seen him for even one at bat
Detroit actually fourth in OPS versus LHP but very few long balls - a day off after actually scoring runs in the Texas series
Boyd has a worse fly ball ration than Gonzales - been great at home this season, however
Boyd only allowed three jacks in 36 innings this season - some of that may be his predominantly pitching in bigger parks, save Comerica
Weather not conducive to runs - overcast, chilly, possible rain
Probably a game I want little to do with as Boyd CAN be solid, but there IS that Detroit bullpen.
Texas/Houston
Houston's stock is back up after 42 hits in three games at Oakland and not allowing the A's a HR in that series
Rangers' Odor on the DL - Chirinos is questionable with a wrist injury
It's almost impossible to bet against Verlander at the moment - Texas HAS seen him this season but overall they've never hit him
Hamels has already lost to Houston twice this season but in neither game did the Astros light him up
Rangers' pen has been better - with Houston probably not batting in the ninth I can make the case for under
Houston is 6-12 (O/U) at home this season - if the number gets to 8 - under it is
Brewers/Rockies
Game two of the series - Lance Barksdale calling balls and strikes - big time UNDER umpire over the years
Brandon Woodruff has been used mostly out of the pen - his one start against the Cubs didn't go well
Brewers (heading into Thursday at least) had not been hitting and had given up two of more HR's in six of seven games
Colorado's bullpen has regressed a bit so any Rockies bet depends more on Bettis
Bettis has been a beast - 1.05 WHIP and only 3 HR's in seven starts - however, mainly on the road
I don't like the "due theory" but his ground ball outs have been decreasing and he's pitched in big time pitchers' parks this season - save Coors
Inasmuch as Coors Field totals are almost always inflated AND Barksdale, it's tough to take the over, but I cannot take the under
Depending on how Thursday plays out - we'll see - the line is "off" at the moment so these pitchers may not be right.
 
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JR ODonnell free pick
THURSDAY, MAY 10, 2018 4:05PM - MLB

913 Kansas City Royals
vs.

914 Baltimore Orioles
DATE
SPORT/TYPE
PICK
SCORE
ODDS
SIZEW/L
$
Today
MLB Sides
Royals
7:05 PM
-121
Free...

Disregard this it was yesterdays pick....
 

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Matt Rivers


Biggest Baseball Play of my Career Goes Again


Blank Check
WAIVE THE RATING
Revenge Rout of the Month


Phillies ML
 

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John Morrison AKA Tony Chau AKA The Whale AKA The Champ

Below you can view the upcoming bet(s) for the "Demolisher" MLB Betting System. Keep in mind that all bets are made on the money line (for the team to win):

Chicago White Sox

Note: Remember to check the odds of each game before betting. The bet is only considered an official bet if the odds are between +105 and -140. The record keeping of the Demolisher betting system will always be based on what's listed on the closing money odds line.
 

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PUNTER

Here’s our top play for the action ahead:
Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tip: Over 5.5 goals @ $1.80 (UBet)




PUNTER MLB
Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
The Astros and Rangers get set for their third series meeting this season with the home side hoping for another impressive performance from ace pitcher Justin Verlander. The 35-year-old has been nothing short of brilliant since arriving in Texas where he’s gone 9-1 with a 1.13 ERA in 13 starts since making the move from Detroit. His two appearances against the Rangers this season have seen him go 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and he’s fared well against them throughout his career. It’s impossible not to side with Verlander here but the true value is in the match total. While Cole Hamels hasn’t been particularly strong at the mound this season, or against the Astros in his career, he has shown enough to suggest he can keep this Houston lineup in check for the most part. The reigning world champs are averaging just 3.84 runs per game at Minute Maiden Park this season and our projections have them scoring only slightly over that number in this one. We’re projecting this one to finish around 5.8 runs and feel we’re getting terrific value here as a result.

Tip: Under 8.5 runs @ $1.87 (Unibet) (1.25 units)



Minnesota Twins @ LA Angels

The Angels hitters continued to swing the bats in the series opener between these sides and we don’t expect that to change against Lance Lynn. The 30-year-old is coming off his first win of the season but has been horrible the rest of the way to date. His 7.28 ERA is among the worst in the majors and he owned an 8.37 ERA for the month of April. Lynn has struggled for control at the mound and allowing the Angels to put runners on base is a dangerous recipe given the number of hitters they have on deck. Meanwhile, Tyler Skaggs has had his own difficulties this season – all of which have come at Angels Stadium. The 26-year-old has allowed 10 runs over 14+ innings at the mound so far at home and is 0-2 in the process. While Minnesota have had their struggles at times this season they are still averaging 4.89 runs per game on the road and a similar number will help see this one comfortably eclipse the total. We’re getting great value on this number and our projections have a combined 10.1 runs being scored here. Take the Overs as both sides get the scoreboard going throughout.

Tip: Over 8.5 runs @ $2.00 (Crownbet)
 

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