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Thread: Preakness Talk

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  1. #26  
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    Last 47 Years ... 1970 to 2017

    Female Family # 1 has won 5 Times out of 67 Possible Horses that were entered in Preakness ..or 7 % of the time ...

    Female Family # 1 has placed 11 / 67 entered or 16 %

    So ... Female Family # 1 has Won or Placed 16 / 67 horses entered in Preakness or 24 %

    Female Family # 1 has Showed 6 / 67 entered or 9 %

    So ...Female Family # 1 has finished In the Money ( 1st , 2nd or 3rd ) or 33 % entered

    Female Family # 1 has finished in 4th place 8/67 or 12 %

    So Female Family # 1 Finished either 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th.... 30 / 67 entered or 45 % of the time ...

    I broke down all the families ...just posting one for now ....


    Thoughts ?
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  2. #27  
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    My notes on Justify before Derby

    Last 25 Years only 1 Horse entered Derby with exact 1-h and did not finish in Top 4
    But the # 1 Female Family Line Leads all Female Family Lines with 5 Derby Winners
    ( Nice angle and my Top Pick ) Play in all spots 1 / 2 / 3 and 4 … but Single First Spot on a tri and super
    Again ... looking at Justify in same way here in Preakness as far as Female Family Line 1-h ....

    Last 47 Years ... 1970 to 2017
    Won 5 Times out of 67 Possible Horses that were entered in Preakness ..or 7 % of the time ...
    Female Family # 1 has placed 11 / 67 entered or 16 %
    So ... Female Family # 1 has Won or Placed 16 / 67 horses entered in Preakness or 24 %
    Female Family # 1 has Showed 6 / 67 entered or 9 %
    So ...Female Family # 1 has finished In the Money ( 1st , 2nd or 3rd ) or 33 % entered
    Female Family # 1 has finished in 4th place 8/67 or 12 %
    So Female Family # 1 Finished either 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th.... 30 / 67 entered or 45 % of the time ...


    Even though in the last 47 years there has never been a Female Family of 1-h that won the Preakness .... rolling with horse in all 4 spots

    Plus looking at 5th Generation First Horse Posted in Pedigree is Storm Bird and 3rd Generation First Horse mentioned is Hennessey .... last 47 years no Storm Bird horse in the First Position in the 5th Gen has ever won the Preakness ...

    Still playing Justify ....just posting info on the horse is all ...
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  3. #28  
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    So guys ... I break down pedigree of a horse in a bit different way .... right or wrong ... I can care less , as long as it helps me win ...

    Don't want to come across in any way the wrong way ..I just don't want to hear crap from people in regards to my angle , is all ..

    I look inside a horse's pedigree ...

    The First Horse Posted in the 5th Generation and 3rd Generation ... went back 47 years of every horse entered in Preakness ...

    Good Magic ....if he enters .... will be in my 1st and 2nd Place Spots ...

    5th Gen First Horse mentioned in Good Magic is Native Dancer

    3rd Gen First Horse mentioned in Good Magic is Classy N Smart

    There have been 4 horse entered in the Preakness with this exact combination

    3/4 Finished in First or Second Place ... 1 Win 2 Places ....

    also if you look at the Female Family Line of Good Magic ( 12-c ) .... 4 / 11 entered in the Preakness or 36 % have won or place , which is very solid ...

    the kicker

    Good Magic matches Exaggerator ( 2016 winner of Preakness ) same 2 horses 5th Gen Native Dancer and 3rd Gen Classy N Smart ... and get this ...

    they have the exact same dosage 3.40 and CD ( center distribution ) 0.82 !!!!

    I will be on this horse $5 Win / $20 to Place .... feel no one beats Justify here ...but I have to throw some action in the Win Spot regardless ...

    I will key Justify and Good magic on top / all / all ...in the gimmicks ...

    Not a big spender guys ...small time bettor ...


    Thoughts ???
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  4. #29  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    1-c Quip Native Dancer In Excess 3 0.88 1.04

    Last 47 Years ...only 5 horses entered the Preakness with the Exact Female Family Line of 1-c.... Best finish 5th Place .... also ...there has never been a horse entered in Preakness with First Line in both 5th Generation Native Dancer and 3rd Generation In Excess .... never know for sure but so far I'm putting Quip in the 3,4,5,positions only ....
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  5. #30  
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    Interesting Kaboom.......I'm liking an exacta of Justify & Good Magic, & boxing them in case Good Magic pulls the upset.

    Still wanna see what all you come up with, seems like you put a lot of time into the capping.
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  6. #31  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    A-10 Bravazo Nearctic Blushing Groom 2.75 0.67 1.14

    The Combo of 5th gen Nearctic / 3rd gen Blushing Groom ...has produced 1 winner out of 3 entries in last 47 years ...

    Last 47 Years Preakness Winners have only a 23 % shot at winning with an Index over 1.00

    The Female Family with the Exact Match of A-10 has never been entered in the Preakness over the last 47 years ...and no Female Family above A-5 has ever finished in the Top 4 Spots in the Preakness ...

    the Breakdown ...


    Female Family / Finish in Preakness ...last 47 years

    A-1 2
    A-1 4th
    A-1 7th
    A-1 10th
    A-1 10th
    A-4 1
    A-4 3rd
    A-4 3rd
    A-4 4th
    A-4 7th
    A-4 9th
    A-5 3rd
    A-5 4th
    A-11 11th
    A-13 6th
    A-23 11th
    A-24 7th


    I like this horse especially after the Derby run ...but to many people's surprise I will be playing Bravazo only in the 4th Position in my Super ...

    Get bite me on the ass ...but that's gambling ....
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  7. #32  
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Computer Group View Post
    Interesting Kaboom.......I'm liking an exacta of Justify & Good Magic, & boxing them in case Good Magic pulls the upset.

    Still wanna see what all you come up with, seems like you put a lot of time into the capping.

    LOL !!! Too much time bro .... but hey ...just a hobby ... not a big bettor , but I hate being wrong with whatever capping skills I have , which are minimal compared to many , trust me ...

    I did deep into my selections ...paid off nicely last weekend ...but I've had days going 0 for 10 , as well ....that's horse racing ....

    I'm posting a lot more of my info of late to see if I can help us out a bit at the window ....

    I surely don't recommend tailing me at anytime ....

    I usually won't post my plays , because of the heat you get when you are wrong and I'm too old for that peddy bullshit ... lol
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  8. #33  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    4-m Sporting Chance Intentionally Seattle Song 2.2 0.63 0.95

    The Combo of First Horse mentioned in the 5th Gen ( Intentionally ) and 3rd Gen ( Seattle Song ) ....Last 47 Years

    Intentionally Seattle Song 9th
    Intentionally Seattle Song 7th
    Intentionally Seattle Song 10th


    Last 47 years 19 Horses Entered Preakness of 4-m

    2 Wins
    1 Place
    1 Show
    1 Fourth

    My use of Sporting Chance ... using in 4th spot only ....
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  9. #34  
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    Guys ...I really enjoy this guy Jay Nehf ...in my opinion a great horse capper ....


    Here is the full video of Jay Nehf from youtube ....I won't bet a big race without seeing his videos on youtube ....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1X0Npmjrga4



    If Justify does falter ...my prediction of Good Magic winning the Preakness will come true .... have to be confident ....right ??? LOL !!!
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  10. #35  
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    For grins and giggles
    ​​​​​​​
    The Last 3 Horses who won the Derby on a Sloppy Track never won again ... 2013 Orb ...2010 Super Saver....2009 Mine that Bird ...
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  11. #36  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    9 Diamond King RAN Gone West 2.6 0.67 0.78

    The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Raise a Naive and 3rd generation Gone has had only 1 entry in last 47 years in whic the horse finished in 10th place .... but the Female Family Exact Match of # 9 ...has a place / a show and a 4th place finish ..

    I will probably use this horse in the 3 and 4 spots in the gimmicks ....
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  12. #37  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    A-4 Lone Sailor Boldnesian Seattle Slew 2.71 0.65 0.9

    The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Boldnesian and 3rd generation Seattle Slew ... the breakdown below

    Last 47 Years of Entries in Preakness

    Boldnesian Seattle Slew 2nd
    Boldnesian Seattle Slew 3rd
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 4th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 4th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 5th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 6th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 8th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 8th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 9th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 11th
    Boldenesian Seattle Slew 14th

    So that's 4/11 or 36 % have finished in the Top 4 Spots ... best ... 1 ..2nd place and 1 ...third place ... 2 ... fourth place

    The Female Family A-4 ..last 47 Years of entries under the Exact Female Line Match

    A-4 1st
    A-4 3rd
    A-4 3rd
    A-4 4th
    A-4 7th
    A-4 9th

    4/6 Finished in Top 4 Spots ... 1 Finished 1st .... 2 Finished in 3rd place ... 1 Finished in 4th place ....


    I will probably us Lone Sailor in my 3rd and 4th spots ...but may include a few 2nd place tickets ?



    Appreciate any thoughts guys on these angles .... many won't care , but I thought I would share this info this year ....
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  13. #38  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    13-c Bolt D Oro Nearctic Sadler Wells 3 0.72 1.00

    The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Nearctic and 3rd Generation Sadler Wells

    Last 47 Years of possible entries breakdown ...

    Nearctic Sadler Wells 1

    Nearctic Sadler Wells 2

    Nearctic Sadler Wells 4th

    Nearctic Sadler Wells 8th

    Nearctic Sadler Wells 12th


    So we have 1 finish 1st place / 1 finish in 2nd place / 1 finish 4th place ... 3/5 finished in Top 4 Spots ....


    Female Family Line of 13-c ....breakdown last 47 years entries in Preakness ...

    13-c 1
    13-c 2
    13-c 5th
    13-c 5th
    13-c 6th
    13-c 6th
    13-c 8th
    13-c 8th
    13-c 9th

    2/9 entered finished either 1st or 2nd place


    I will more than likely be trying to put Bolt d' Oro in the 2,3,4 spots of gimmicks ....remember any Index of 1.00 or over have a 23 % chance of winning the Preakness last 47 years ...
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  14. #39  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    19-b Telekinesis ND Deputy Minister 3 0.71 1.10

    The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Northern Dancer and 3rd Generation Deputy Minister ..last 47 Years only 3 entries

    ND Deputy Minister 7th
    ND Deputy Minister 8th
    ND Deputy Minister 8th


    Female Family Exact Match of 19-b ....None in the Top 4 Spots ...

    19-b 5th
    19-b 5th
    19-b 5th
    19-b 6th
    19-b 11th



    Telekinesis will be all toss for me ....
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  15. #40  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    3-n Tenfold Native Dancer Classy N Smart 3 0.69 0.83


    Exact Combo with First Horse Noted in Both 5th Generation Native Dancer and 3rd Generation Classy N Smart ....have done well

    Same combo as Good Magic

    There have been 4 horse entered in the Preakness with this exact combination

    3/4 Finished in First or Second Place ... 1 Win 2 Places ....


    Female Family Line with Exact Match 3-n ....best ...is a 3rd pl finish in last 47 years of entries

    3-n 3rd
    3-n 5th
    3-n 9th


    For me only ...just using in 3rd and 4th spots
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  16. #41  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    1-n Pony Up Bold Ruler Is it True 3 0.77 0.73


    The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Bold Ruler and 3rd Generation Is it True has never been entered in the Preakness in last 47 years ...

    The Exact Female Line Match of 1-n ...never won ...but 3 ...2nd place and ....2 .... 3rd place ... with 13 entries in last 47 years

    1-n 2
    1-n 2
    1-n 2
    1-n 3rd
    1-n 3rd
    1-n 6th
    1-n 7th
    1-n 6th
    1-n 7th
    1-n 7th
    1-n 8th
    1-n 9th
    1-n 11th



    For me .... 4th spot only ..but of course , your call ...
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  17. #42  
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    Fem Fam Poss Contender 5th Gen 3rd Gen Dosage CD Index
    1-h Givemeaminit RAN Fappiano 3.44 0.7 0.68


    The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Raise a Native and Fappiano ...last 47 years ...best finish ... 2nd place ( 1 Time ) ...
    2012 Bodemeister

    RAN Fappiano 2nd
    RAN Fappiano 5th
    RAN Fappiano 7th
    RAN Fappiano 9th
    RAN Fappiano 11th
    RAN Fappiano 11th


    The Exact Female Line Match of 1-h ....2/5 entries last 47 years finished in 2nd place ...

    1-h 2
    1-h 2
    1-h 8th
    1-h 8th
    1-h 11th



    For me if using ...I have him in the 4th spot ...with a small maybe in 3rd spot too ...
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  18. #43  
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    Great stuff ...
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  19. #44  
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    Kaboom once again you’ve outdone yourself
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  20. #45  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prof_Factor View Post
    Great stuff ...
    Thank you for the kudos and stopping in bro .... much appreciated ... GL this Sat !!!
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  21. #46  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baldheadedprick View Post
    Kaboom once again you’ve outdone yourself
    Thanks brotha !!! Always appreciate guys stopping in to let me know they enjoy the stats .... keeps me posting ... GL Sat !!!
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  22. #47  
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    Kaboom: Outstanding information, thank you for the hard work!
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  23. #48  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Kaboom: Outstanding information, thank you for the hard work!
    Thank you Serbone !!!Let's hope someone can cash in ...Working on equivalents inside the pedigree right now ..past 5 winners of so have had 8% or more of Mr Prospector or Northern Dancer in pedigree ...I'm going to try an angle ,eventually adding those 2 Horses equivalent percentages to see if I can find something ...just a hobby ...Gl

    on the Preakness.
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  24. #49  
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    Good luck this weekend!
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  25. #50  
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    Quote Originally Posted by razorbackpicks View Post
    Good luck this weekend!

    Thanks Razor ...u too bro !!
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