Why the Blue Jays on Tuesday at +105...The Jays come into Tuesday's series opener against the Mariners after an off-day coming off a win against Chris Archer and the Rays IN Tampa. With a 3-4 record over their last seven games, the Jays averaged 4.4 RPG with a .237 BA/.304 OBP. The Jays have posted consistent numbers against LHP where they are 6-6 on the season averaging 4.9 RPG to go with a .237 BA/.310 OBP and 14 HRs. Like the Jays in this spot who are 9-7 at home where they average 5.8 RPG with a .249 BA/.319 OBP and 23 HRs. The Jays will entrust Marcus Stroman to start their series on the right foot. Stroman hasn't posted the most glorious number of late, posting a 7.13 era over his last 17 IP where he allowed 19 hits on 6 BBs and 14 Ks. There is room to like Stroman in this home start who is coming off a quality start against the Twins IN Minnesota where he allowed 2 runs through 7 IP on 6 hits, 1 BB and 5 Ks. In that start against the above-average offensive Twins, Stroman saw his BABIP against drop from .368 in his previous start to .238 against the Twinkies. With consistent contact% as of late and back to back starts under 100 pitches, we will back Stroman in this spot at home against a Mariners lineup who sports a .280 BA/.294 OBP with 0 HRs in a combined 50 ABs against Stroman. The Mariners come into Tuesday's affair after dropping the series finale against the Angels at home. With a 4-3 record over their last seven games, the Mariners averaged 4.7 RPG with a .269 BA/.327 OBP. The Mariners will hand the ball to James Paxton who has displayed quality numbers of late, posting a 3.71 era over his last 17 IP where he allowed 16 hits on 7 BBs, 32 Ks and 1 HR. Taking into consideration that two of those three starts came against the average offensive teams of the Athletics and Rangers; Paxton posted an average .444 BABIP against in those three starts which does not trend well for him heading into Tuesday's matchup. Looking deeper into Paxton's last start against the A's, he posted a GB% of 0% as well as soft contact% of 0% and a hard contact% of 40% (highest of season). With back to back starts of 100+ pitches, going to fade Paxton in this spot who brings a 6.32 era over 15 IP IN Rogers Ctr where he has allowed 14 hits on 14 Ks, 10 BBs and 2 HRs. This Blue Jays team has a combined 65 ABs off of Paxton to go with a .292 BA/.303 OBP. A few trends to look at here with the Jays is that they are 3-0 coming off of an off-day and are 6-0 when playing on Tuesday.
Play on the Blue Jays at +105
Play on the Blue Jays at +105
