Will We Have a TRIPLE CROWN Winner in 2018??

Search

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,580
Tokens
The current odds, depending on your book (I'll use Heritage):

YES: +155
NO: -175

There is tremendous value on the NO bet. Its only been done 12 times out of 143 opportunities.

I have a buddy with a ticket on Justify to win the TC at I believe 12-1. Can't remember the exact odds he got. We have had lively discussions on whether or not he can do it. His ticket actually represents good value IF Justify can win this Saturday.

Horses have won the first two legs 35 times, and have gone on to win the Belmont 12 times. That's roughly 1/3 of the time, yet the odds are only +155. That's a big underlay. The flip side is that the NO is a big overlay.....and thats assuming he wins the Preakness which he hasn't done yet.

We have an undefeated colt, high profile connections, and the public thirst for the next great horse. Many great horses have won the first two legs, only to lose the Belmont. Many of them personal favorites of mine - Silver Charm quickly comes to mind - that haven't gotten it done.

Another sloppy track this weekend at Pimlico, and with a field of mostly over matched horses Justify should get the job done. But its horse racing, and big favorites lose. This will be his 5th race this year, second in two weeks, facing a talented colt in Good Magic. He also has some issues with his feet.

Even if he wins this Saturday, he still needs to win in three weeks against a large field of rested and talented colts. Derby horses that skipped the Preakness will face him again with 5 weeks rest, and there will be some talented colts that did not run in either the KD or the Preakness.

If Justify wins the Triple Crown, congratulations to him. I am a huge fan of the connections (Mike Smith my all time favorite jockey, an all time great, and a good guy), and I was at Santa Anita in March when he rolled home in an allowance race. He's a big, handsome colt with a beautiful stride. But at these odds, you set your heart aside and wager with your head. Especially for a colt that was unraced as a 2YO and has had a busy schedule since March.

Justify to win the Triple Crown offers tremendous value on the NO bet. I'll take the -175.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 11, 2016
Messages
3,470
Tokens
I’m torn on this, if the track was dry Saturday I’d say for sure no. But with it wet I’m leaning to yes.... Even thought Hofburg laying in wait for them at the Belmont
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
22,529
Tokens
Biz his ticket offers incredible value right now.

"His ticket actually represents good value IF Justify can win this Saturday." :think2:
 

Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2012
Messages
4,188
Tokens
Based on history, I have to say NO. Justify's best race was SA Derby and not the Ky Derby, IMO. I'll be looking to beat him tomorrow but will use him in the second slot for sure.
 

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,580
Tokens
Biz his ticket offers incredible value right now.

"His ticket actually represents good value IF Justify can win this Saturday." :think2:

Yes its also good now. The point is that he's getting 12-1 not +155
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,822
Messages
13,439,163
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com