Forum: Horse Racing Forum - Horse Handicapping Central. Grab your racing form and share some winners. Down the stretch they come.

Thread: Will We Have a TRIPLE CROWN Winner in 2018??

  1. #1 Will We Have a TRIPLE CROWN Winner in 2018?? 
    RX Wizard
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    East Bay, No California
    Posts
    8,947
    The current odds, depending on your book (I'll use Heritage):

    YES: +155
    NO: -175

    There is tremendous value on the NO bet. Its only been done 12 times out of 143 opportunities.

    I have a buddy with a ticket on Justify to win the TC at I believe 12-1. Can't remember the exact odds he got. We have had lively discussions on whether or not he can do it. His ticket actually represents good value IF Justify can win this Saturday.

    Horses have won the first two legs 35 times, and have gone on to win the Belmont 12 times. That's roughly 1/3 of the time, yet the odds are only +155. That's a big underlay. The flip side is that the NO is a big overlay.....and thats assuming he wins the Preakness which he hasn't done yet.

    We have an undefeated colt, high profile connections, and the public thirst for the next great horse. Many great horses have won the first two legs, only to lose the Belmont. Many of them personal favorites of mine - Silver Charm quickly comes to mind - that haven't gotten it done.

    Another sloppy track this weekend at Pimlico, and with a field of mostly over matched horses Justify should get the job done. But its horse racing, and big favorites lose. This will be his 5th race this year, second in two weeks, facing a talented colt in Good Magic. He also has some issues with his feet.

    Even if he wins this Saturday, he still needs to win in three weeks against a large field of rested and talented colts. Derby horses that skipped the Preakness will face him again with 5 weeks rest, and there will be some talented colts that did not run in either the KD or the Preakness.

    If Justify wins the Triple Crown, congratulations to him. I am a huge fan of the connections (Mike Smith my all time favorite jockey, an all time great, and a good guy), and I was at Santa Anita in March when he rolled home in an allowance race. He's a big, handsome colt with a beautiful stride. But at these odds, you set your heart aside and wager with your head. Especially for a colt that was unraced as a 2YO and has had a busy schedule since March.

    Justify to win the Triple Crown offers tremendous value on the NO bet. I'll take the -175.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX SemiGod Gravy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Cleveland,Ohio
    Posts
    11,544
    I would go with NO
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    1,745
    I’m torn on this, if the track was dry Saturday I’d say for sure no. But with it wet I’m leaning to yes.... Even thought Hofburg laying in wait for them at the Belmont
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Location
    OK
    Posts
    227
    No..
    Justify, if he wins the Preakness, does not have the back class to win the Belmont.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    RX Local trytrytry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    MN
    Posts
    21,987
    Biz his ticket offers incredible value right now.

    "His ticket actually represents good value IF Justify can win this Saturday."
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Cashiers Window
    Posts
    1,217
    Based on history, I have to say NO. Justify's best race was SA Derby and not the Ky Derby, IMO. I'll be looking to beat him tomorrow but will use him in the second slot for sure.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    RX Wizard
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    East Bay, No California
    Posts
    8,947
    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    Biz his ticket offers incredible value right now.

    "His ticket actually represents good value IF Justify can win this Saturday."
    Yes its also good now. The point is that he's getting 12-1 not +155
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    RX Senior Gaz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    US
    Posts
    3,249
    I think you're good on your bet
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    It's a pity you're not here, Maine
    Posts
    784
    Can't wait for the Belmont field, but I'll try to fade Justify.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •