The Euro finds itself at a decisive technical boundary against the Canadian Dollar. Prices are perched squarely at support defining the rising trend from February 2017 lows. The move down from March 2018 highs guiding the cross to its present position may alternatively amount to a falling channel defining the newly emerging down trend or a Flag continuation pattern preceding uptrend resumption. Which of these ultimately proves correct will be determined when prices either break rising trend support or bounce from it to breach the downward-sloping resistance. Now 1 eur to cad is rate in1.5139


From a fundamental perspective, the downside scenario seems somewhat more compelling. A cautious improvement in Canadian economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts over the past six weeks has been echoed in an upward shift in priced-in BOC rate hike expectations. A hike at the July policy meeting is now carries an implied probability of 75.5 percent. Meanwhile, the ECB may begin to signal a delay in winding down its QE program. A rate increase seems firmly off the table in the near term.