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Thread: I have my first solid UFC pick .... EVER!

  1. #1 I have my first solid UFC pick .... EVER! 
    RX SemiGod
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    UFC by far my worst sport. About 2% win rate. However, I am getting better. And this is the best bet I've seen in MMA in a long time.


    Maia/Usman ^2.5 (-120)



    Usman is a > -700 fave here. However, Maia has not been finished in almost a decade! In fact, in only one fight in over 17 years has he ever been finished inside the distance. Maia took a beating from Colby and lost a staring match against Woodley in his last matches. Both matches clear losses via decision. Usman is not going to finish Maia before 2.5 rounds have passed.

    The only way this goes under (aside from Maia loss ITD, which is unlikely) is if Maia wraps up Usman and boa-constricts his ass. Given the odds, those are long odds indeed. Also, Usman has only one fight in all of his UFC fights that did not go the distance.

    You might take the over and then protect at a fraction of the cost with a Maia straight-up win.
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  2. #2  
    RX SemiGod
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    Example:

    480/400 : over 2.5 rounds
    150/600 : Maia straight up



    maia win/under = +120
    maia win/over = +1000

    usman win/under = -630
    usman win/over = +250
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  3. #3  
    RX SemiGod
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    easy first round. no action

    -400 Usman live

    Maia won 1st, IMO

    make it thru this 2nd.... and done deal.
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  4. #4  
    RX SemiGod
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    need 40 more seconds and wins easy
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  5. #5  
    RX SemiGod
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    easy winner!
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  6. #6  
    RX Senior smartmoneyfollower's Avatar
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    killed it
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