First NFL futures bet of 2018

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It can be a good time of year to lock in some great value, i'll post the teams i believe are value and that i have wagered on as we progress throughout this offseason....the first wager is in.

LA Chargers 28/1
I backed these guys last year at 66/1 as more of a speculative bet but this time around i am a lot more confident they will figure in the post season after winning their division.
I still believe that Rivers can produce at an elite level especially given all the weapons he has plus the protection he receives (only 18 sacks last season). They look well stocked at the receiver position and we can expect Williams to be better without the back injury....they have a workhorse running back and a good OL, this offensive unit will be capable to producing at a high level.

The Defense has a chance of being scary in 2018, they have arguably the best 1-2 punch at putting pressure on the QB--something that in the pass-centric NFL is probably the most important factor these days.....the corners are good and they've upgraded their talent at safety via the draft with Derwin James...this D has a shot at being one of the best in the league.

An area that could see sharp improvement is in the kicking game, plain and simple they lost several games last year due to a totally unreliable FG kicker, over the season they were one of the worst in this area....it would not take much for these numbers to improve and those couple of close losses to fall the other way.

The other factor that is hard to quantify is they should be more settled the 2nd year in LA than last year, I would expect a few more bandwagon fans in that stadium this year too! The rest of the AFC West all have a lot more question marks and deficiencies than the Chargers and I don't like the chances of any of those teams making the playoffs.

All in all i feel the Chargers are a great value bet for 2018 and i fully expect them to win the division.
 
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i have locked in the 2nd of my NFL futures bets.

LA Rams 12/1 you'll need to hunt around to still find this price but it's still available (ladbrokes for example)

The Rams offense while impressive on paper did struggle at times last year against the better teams, however I feel they were just getting started with this young talented group....the QB/RB combo is one of the better ones and they've improved the receiver group, they'll continue to be one of the higher scoring teams in the league and I don't think it will matter if numbers wise they dropped a fraction....why, because their Defense is now completely loaded!
Teams will give up on trying to run against the Rams pretty early on this season and that will allow Phillips to continually bring the heat with his big nasties...at the back end they have the coverage guys to take advantage of the QB pressures and also provide the kind of tight coverage that forces a QB to hold on to the ball just that bit longer than they want to....the somewhat unproven part of the D is the linebackers group but the system will give them every chance to succeed this season.
Another massive factor here is getting back Greg The Leg as the kicker, with so much parity in the NFL it so often comes down to a cool headed kicker that has range and accuracy, its worth a a game or two a year and he's as good as they get.
Judging by the crowd they got at the playoff game (around 75,000) I think we'll see the LA bandwagon out in force this year finally giving the Rams some sort of home field advantage which they've been lacking.
As with all teams that have been assembled with immense talent (going all in) there is the question mark about will they gel together, and that is a fair question however when you break down the talent this roster has in the key areas they should be more of a 6 or 7/1 chance and we're getting 12's...value play.
 

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W&G. Love the chargers with you pal... shhhhh...!
 
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W&G. Love the chargers with you pal... shhhhh...!

good luck to us buddy!....I am very bullish about their chances, I found a book (bet365) doing 33/1 over the weekend and I topped up at that quote, massive odds for a genuine contender....disappointed about Henry doing his ACL but with over 3 months to go I expect they'll find a way to shore up the TE position and its not like their offense doesn't have a lot of weapons already.
 

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good luck to us buddy!....I am very bullish about their chances, I found a book (bet365) doing 33/1 over the weekend and I topped up at that quote, massive odds for a genuine contender....disappointed about Henry doing his ACL but with over 3 months to go I expect they'll find a way to shore up the TE position and its not like their offense doesn't have a lot of weapons already.
my shop is down to 20/1(chargers) so I tossed a few hundred on them... best of luck to us...might see Antonio Gates back ...???
 
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my shop is down to 20/1(chargers) so I tossed a few hundred on them... best of luck to us...might see Antonio Gates back ...???

it sounds to me like Rivers & Gates have been in constant contact and I fully expect Gates to be back this season and I expect whilst he's past his best he will still prove effective in this system due to the chemistry he has with Rivers....he could easily give them 40-50 catches and 4-6 TD's given he will get more opportunities without Henry, I actually don't think this team needs vintage Gates to be successful they just need an honest contribution at TE given their other weapons....also Virgil Green might produce a bit more with a more competent QB to work with than he had in Denver....if the legislation passes soon & you can open whatever accounts you want keep an eye on the odds at bet365 as they still have the Chargers hanging at 33/1 and these guys often are slow to move on prices
 
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Henry has a unique skill set though. Hard to replace that.
GL this year bro. Personally I think Phillip Rivers will never going win a superbowl but I sure hope he does. Probably my favorite QB to watch over the last couple of years.

Rams are damn good but do you believe teams can buy championships? I don't. When a team makes this many star studded offseason acquisitions, they never win it immediately that year. I think both of these teams are playoff teams though. So you're getting value when in the tournament.
 
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I personally think Phillip Rivers is never going to win a superbowl*

Is what that was suppose to read
 
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hey Mob good to hear from you, hope you've been winning....I understand exactly what you mean re the Rams and I wrestled with this question a lot, but I think the difference here is that the key parts of the puzzle were already in place, its not like they're starting fresh with a new QB or having to completely overhaul their defensive system...also its not like they weren't successful last year, often these teams that are pieced together quickly in any sport do struggle in the first year like you say but I am not sure the Rams fall into this category, I think the 4 main guys they've picked up compliment what they already have been trying to do--whether they fit in from an ego perspective for mine is the big question, but at 12/1 I really think they are a punt worth taking because this team has the ability to be a 13-3 team.

Regarding the Chargers and Rivers again I hear you, but I thinkmost of the reasons why they’ve never got to a SB are not associated withRivers….I feel he’s still an elite talent that with the right scenario can definitelywin one, if Philly can win with Foles and Denver with a washed up Manning theChargers can win with Rivers….I think this will be the best defense he’s everhad backing him up so he’s not going to have to take huge risks, he’s got theweapons to put up great numbers and is backed up by a very good run game plusmost importantly his line protects him—only 18 sacks last year…the Chargers doseem like they have been a bit cursed but if the Cubs can overcome their cursethen anything is possible right! The kicking game last year was really the onlydifference between the Chargers being 11-5 vs 9-7, I feel they have enormousupside this season.

Any teams you think are over the odds right now? The teams I think are under the odds and no value at allare: Green Bay, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Dallas
 
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A team I really like to make rapid improvement this season is the Chicago Bears, I like the over 6.5 win total a lot, I feel they could even become a 9-7 or 10-6 team this season....just from a value perspective I will also have a small wager on them @ 9/1 to win the division and 151/1 for the SB because with odds this great it can provide great "cash out" or hedging opportunities later on....I feel they can overtake the Packers very soon (this year or next)….now, whether they can topple the Vikings is unlikely however you never know what can happen and a few key injuries to the Vikes could bring them back to the pack and you never fully know how a new QB will fit in...I certainly feel Chicago is building and will easily hit over 6.5 wins
 

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good luck on the chargers. i grabbed it a while ago at 35/1 for pretty much all the reasons you said. got them tt over on wins, division, conference and superbowl. long shot for sure but great odds for a team that has a lot of championship peices in place. cant wait for football and best of luck to you
 
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Happy to be locked and loaded with the Chargers @ 33/1….hereis my 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] large futures wager:

Atlanta Falcons 20/1


They didn’t crumble the way a lot of Super Bowl losers tendto last year and really should have beaten the eventual champions in Philly,the D played well enough to win. I am expecting this great offense to bounceback hard this season, I think they will have had a chance to iron out any issueswith the new OC and they add in Calvin Ridley who I expect to make an impactgiven they can spread the field so well with Jones and Sanu—not to mention theyhave stated they’ll target the RB’s even more this year too….on that topic Coleman/Freemanare still one of the better 1-2 combos and back fully healthy I would expect avery high output from those two.

Matty Ice has his detractors but I am not one of them, heshould be a super bowl winning QB and was let down by play calling and hisdefense in that game, he absolutely is elite and I expect him to perform atmore like his 2016 output than last season’s results, in reality the Falconsdon’t need the MVP level of play to go all the way because other areas of the teamhave improved.

Over to the defense, this might be a group that is aboutready to take that step and become an elite unit….they have the pieces and thespeed to do so. I like the move of Vic Beasley back to the line and thesecondary is starting to look very strong, I feel this Atlanta D is goingplaces and the team won’t need to be scoring 30 points to win games this year(although it always helps!)

The Saints are always a danger in this division (I feel thePanthers are frauds and overachieved last season) but overall I think theFalcons might have a bit more upside than the Saints and might be a little morecomplete overall.

At 20/1 I think the Falcons represent tremendous value.

 
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I said 2nd large futures wager, I meant 3rd futures wager (ATL) as I have already locked in LA Chargers 28/1 and 33/1 as well as LA Rams @ 12/1...these are the 3 teams I feel represent the best value to win the SB....I also really like the Bears total team over 6 wins and I feel they have some hope for a wildcard spot so I have had a small speculative bet on them at 150/1

cheers all
 

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Atlanta will NOT make it to the Superbowl. Teams who'se cities are hosting the Superbowl have never played in it. It has never happened yet. Just ask Minnesota. The 2019 Superbowl will be played in Atlanta.

I think that the Rams were a fluke last season, and their performance against Atlanta in the playoffs proved that. People will be paying attention to them this season. I believe that New Orleans, Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Minnesota all have better chances of making it to Atlanta.

I do like your Chargers pick. Basically, you have New England, Pitt, and everyone else in the AFC. They get the NFC West and the AFC North this season, so they should have no major problems making the playoffs. I also think that they can win the AFC West.
 
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Atlanta will NOT make it to the Superbowl. Teams who'se cities are hosting the Superbowl have never played in it. It has never happened yet. Just ask Minnesota. The 2019 Superbowl will be played in Atlanta.

I think that the Rams were a fluke last season, and their performance against Atlanta in the playoffs proved that. People will be paying attention to them this season. I believe that New Orleans, Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Minnesota all have better chances of making it to Atlanta.

I do like your Chargers pick. Basically, you have New England, Pitt, and everyone else in the AFC. They get the NFC West and the AFC North this season, so they should have no major problems making the playoffs. I also think that they can win the AFC West.

You can have you opinion on the Falcons that’s cool, but itis not a fact that no team will ever make it to the super bowl when held intheir home city….to be honest I am not surprised nobody has simply from a numbersperspective, you have to have a fantastic team in the year you’re given the SBand then you need a lot to go right to get there, just because it hasn’thappened yet has absolutely no bearing on what will happen, people used to saythe same thing about teams winning the SB from the wildcard spot until ithappened….the stat has even less relevance when you consider how many teams towin the SB have never (and probably never will) host a SB in their city….formine the Falcons are far more complete than the Packers, much better value thanthe Eagles (going back to back aint easy)…as for the Vikes I think they are alegit chance but nearly half the odds and their QB has never thrown a ball to theirreceivers—the chemistry doesn’t always happen straight away….I think the Saintsare a genuine concern for the Falcons but again I think Atl might be a touchmore complete as a team and have a better D, we shall see of course…..

I understand people questioning the Rams, its my judgementthey are open to as much if not more improvement than anyone especiallydefensively and I think the 49ers will not get in their way and the Seahawksare on the slide hence I expect them to dominate that division on the way todouble-digit wins perhaps 12 or 13.

GL, I hope we’re both right about the Chargers.
 

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With Julio holding out of mandatory practice due to contract concerns? That’s gonna put a black eye in the chemistry between Matty and him. Not to mention doesn’t hold well with morale of the team. Falcons slide...
 
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With Julio holding out of mandatory practice due to contract concerns? That’s gonna put a black eye in the chemistry between Matty and him. Not to mention doesn’t hold well with morale of the team. Falcons slide...

i'm not sure it matters as much with these 2 as they have years of chemistry together and I heard they've been regularly talking to each other...as for the morale I think that's only an issue if he misses the entire camp and games, these days I think players understand the business side of things is not personal against the team, the silver lining might be Ryan fast tracks his chemistry with Ridley who looks ready to make an impact.....we'll see how it plays out, I understand why people don't rate ATL but I am a believer.
 

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i'm not sure it matters as much with these 2 as they have years of chemistry together and I heard they've been regularly talking to each other...as for the morale I think that's only an issue if he misses the entire camp and games, these days I think players understand the business side of things is not personal against the team, the silver lining might be Ryan fast tracks his chemistry with Ridley who looks ready to make an impact.....we'll see how it plays out, I understand why people don't rate ATL but I am a believer.
Perhaps you’re right but being SB host I don’t think it’ll bode well for them. NFC South is the most competitive division with Saints, Car and Falcons always competing for the top. Usually it’s just 2 teams strong in a division and 2 sliders.
 

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May be worth to put a few dollars on the Bears. A long shot but a new coach, 2nd year QB, good free agents, already with a solid defense and they were able to keep their defensive coordinator. I also like the Chargers!
 
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May be worth to put a few dollars on the Bears. A long shot but a new coach, 2nd year QB, good free agents, already with a solid defense and they were able to keep their defensive coordinator. I also like the Chargers!

I agree, I had a small wager on the Bears @ 150/1 and 10/1 division as well as over 6 wins, its a tough division but every season the NFL throws up a few surprises from teams that were poor the previous season, they do seem to have some good upside....I think they will win 8 or 9 games and potentially sneak into a wildcard.....if you get a few lucky breaks and a good run with no injuries 8 wins can easily become 10
 

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