Forum: NFL Football Forum - Sponsored by: WagerWeb - get your 100% bonus here!
Post your picks or discuss anything related to betting NFL football here.

Thread: First NFL futures bet of 2018

  1. #1 First NFL futures bet of 2018 
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    South Australia
    Posts
    384
    It can be a good time of year to lock in some great value, i'll post the teams i believe are value and that i have wagered on as we progress throughout this offseason....the first wager is in.

    LA Chargers 28/1
    I backed these guys last year at 66/1 as more of a speculative bet but this time around i am a lot more confident they will figure in the post season after winning their division.
    I still believe that Rivers can produce at an elite level especially given all the weapons he has plus the protection he receives (only 18 sacks last season). They look well stocked at the receiver position and we can expect Williams to be better without the back injury....they have a workhorse running back and a good OL, this offensive unit will be capable to producing at a high level.

    The Defense has a chance of being scary in 2018, they have arguably the best 1-2 punch at putting pressure on the QB--something that in the pass-centric NFL is probably the most important factor these days.....the corners are good and they've upgraded their talent at safety via the draft with Derwin James...this D has a shot at being one of the best in the league.

    An area that could see sharp improvement is in the kicking game, plain and simple they lost several games last year due to a totally unreliable FG kicker, over the season they were one of the worst in this area....it would not take much for these numbers to improve and those couple of close losses to fall the other way.

    The other factor that is hard to quantify is they should be more settled the 2nd year in LA than last year, I would expect a few more bandwagon fans in that stadium this year too! The rest of the AFC West all have a lot more question marks and deficiencies than the Chargers and I don't like the chances of any of those teams making the playoffs.

    All in all i feel the Chargers are a great value bet for 2018 and i fully expect them to win the division.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    South Australia
    Posts
    384
    i have locked in the 2nd of my NFL futures bets.

    LA Rams 12/1 you'll need to hunt around to still find this price but it's still available (ladbrokes for example)

    The Rams offense while impressive on paper did struggle at times last year against the better teams, however I feel they were just getting started with this young talented group....the QB/RB combo is one of the better ones and they've improved the receiver group, they'll continue to be one of the higher scoring teams in the league and I don't think it will matter if numbers wise they dropped a fraction....why, because their Defense is now completely loaded!
    Teams will give up on trying to run against the Rams pretty early on this season and that will allow Phillips to continually bring the heat with his big nasties...at the back end they have the coverage guys to take advantage of the QB pressures and also provide the kind of tight coverage that forces a QB to hold on to the ball just that bit longer than they want to....the somewhat unproven part of the D is the linebackers group but the system will give them every chance to succeed this season.
    Another massive factor here is getting back Greg The Leg as the kicker, with so much parity in the NFL it so often comes down to a cool headed kicker that has range and accuracy, its worth a a game or two a year and he's as good as they get.
    Judging by the crowd they got at the playoff game (around 75,000) I think we'll see the LA bandwagon out in force this year finally giving the Rams some sort of home field advantage which they've been lacking.
    As with all teams that have been assembled with immense talent (going all in) there is the question mark about will they gel together, and that is a fair question however when you break down the talent this roster has in the key areas they should be more of a 6 or 7/1 chance and we're getting 12's...value play.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    RX Wizard 3pointdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    chicago
    Posts
    5,232
    W&G. Love the chargers with you pal... shhhhh...!
    Just Win....
    Placed 13th in 2012 LVH Super Contest

    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    South Australia
    Posts
    384
    Quote Originally Posted by 3pointdog View Post
    W&G. Love the chargers with you pal... shhhhh...!
    good luck to us buddy!....I am very bullish about their chances, I found a book (bet365) doing 33/1 over the weekend and I topped up at that quote, massive odds for a genuine contender....disappointed about Henry doing his ACL but with over 3 months to go I expect they'll find a way to shore up the TE position and its not like their offense doesn't have a lot of weapons already.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    RX Wizard 3pointdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    chicago
    Posts
    5,232
    Quote Originally Posted by Winners are Grinners View Post
    good luck to us buddy!....I am very bullish about their chances, I found a book (bet365) doing 33/1 over the weekend and I topped up at that quote, massive odds for a genuine contender....disappointed about Henry doing his ACL but with over 3 months to go I expect they'll find a way to shore up the TE position and its not like their offense doesn't have a lot of weapons already.
    my shop is down to 20/1(chargers) so I tossed a few hundred on them... best of luck to us...might see Antonio Gates back ...???
    Just Win....
    Placed 13th in 2012 LVH Super Contest

    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    South Australia
    Posts
    384
    Quote Originally Posted by 3pointdog View Post
    my shop is down to 20/1(chargers) so I tossed a few hundred on them... best of luck to us...might see Antonio Gates back ...???
    it sounds to me like Rivers & Gates have been in constant contact and I fully expect Gates to be back this season and I expect whilst he's past his best he will still prove effective in this system due to the chemistry he has with Rivers....he could easily give them 40-50 catches and 4-6 TD's given he will get more opportunities without Henry, I actually don't think this team needs vintage Gates to be successful they just need an honest contribution at TE given their other weapons....also Virgil Green might produce a bit more with a more competent QB to work with than he had in Denver....if the legislation passes soon & you can open whatever accounts you want keep an eye on the odds at bet365 as they still have the Chargers hanging at 33/1 and these guys often are slow to move on prices
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    Don't jinx me Mobdeeper7239's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    17,676
    Henry has a unique skill set though. Hard to replace that.
    GL this year bro. Personally I think Phillip Rivers will never going win a superbowl but I sure hope he does. Probably my favorite QB to watch over the last couple of years.

    Rams are damn good but do you believe teams can buy championships? I don't. When a team makes this many star studded offseason acquisitions, they never win it immediately that year. I think both of these teams are playoff teams though. So you're getting value when in the tournament.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    Don't jinx me Mobdeeper7239's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    17,676
    I personally think Phillip Rivers is never going to win a superbowl*

    Is what that was suppose to read
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    South Australia
    Posts
    384
    hey Mob good to hear from you, hope you've been winning....I understand exactly what you mean re the Rams and I wrestled with this question a lot, but I think the difference here is that the key parts of the puzzle were already in place, its not like they're starting fresh with a new QB or having to completely overhaul their defensive system...also its not like they weren't successful last year, often these teams that are pieced together quickly in any sport do struggle in the first year like you say but I am not sure the Rams fall into this category, I think the 4 main guys they've picked up compliment what they already have been trying to do--whether they fit in from an ego perspective for mine is the big question, but at 12/1 I really think they are a punt worth taking because this team has the ability to be a 13-3 team.

    Regarding the Chargers and Rivers again I hear you, but I thinkmost of the reasons why they’ve never got to a SB are not associated withRivers….I feel he’s still an elite talent that with the right scenario can definitelywin one, if Philly can win with Foles and Denver with a washed up Manning theChargers can win with Rivers….I think this will be the best defense he’s everhad backing him up so he’s not going to have to take huge risks, he’s got theweapons to put up great numbers and is backed up by a very good run game plusmost importantly his line protects him—only 18 sacks last year…the Chargers doseem like they have been a bit cursed but if the Cubs can overcome their cursethen anything is possible right! The kicking game last year was really the onlydifference between the Chargers being 11-5 vs 9-7, I feel they have enormousupside this season.

    Any teams you think are over the odds right now? The teams I think are under the odds and no value at allare: Green Bay, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Dallas
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #10  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    South Australia
    Posts
    384
    A team I really like to make rapid improvement this season is the Chicago Bears, I like the over 6.5 win total a lot, I feel they could even become a 9-7 or 10-6 team this season....just from a value perspective I will also have a small wager on them @ 9/1 to win the division and 151/1 for the SB because with odds this great it can provide great "cash out" or hedging opportunities later on....I feel they can overtake the Packers very soon (this year or next)….now, whether they can topple the Vikings is unlikely however you never know what can happen and a few key injuries to the Vikes could bring them back to the pack and you never fully know how a new QB will fit in...I certainly feel Chicago is building and will easily hit over 6.5 wins
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #11  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    nc
    Posts
    1,576
    good luck on the chargers. i grabbed it a while ago at 35/1 for pretty much all the reasons you said. got them tt over on wins, division, conference and superbowl. long shot for sure but great odds for a team that has a lot of championship peices in place. cant wait for football and best of luck to you
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •